Up for grabs on the GOP side tomorrow are:
[li]Arizona (58 delegates)[/li][li]Utah (40 delegates)[/li][li]American Samoa (9 delegates)[/li][/ul]
Doesn’t seem like much compared to other recent Tuesdays, but it gets more sparse than this for awhile - the next time this many delegates will be chosen at once is April 26.
Arizona is a true WTA state - whoever gets the most votes, gets all 58 delegates.
There’s been little recent polling in AZ, and none since Rubio dropped out. The most recent poll (March 7-11) had Trump 31, Cruz 19, Kasich 10, Rubio 10. 538 gives Trump an 84% chance of winning.
Utah is proportional, with the wrinkle that if one candidate gets >50% of the vote, it becomes WTA. And the one recent poll, taken late last week, showed Cruz 53, Kasich 29, Trump 11. Not enough recent polling for 538 to give a probability.
American Samoa’s got a caucus.
Current delegate counts, per 538: Trump 695, Cruz 424, Kasich 144, and Rubio’s suspended campaign has 166.