Wild West Tuesday, 3/22/16

Politics & Elections
#1

Up for grabs on the GOP side tomorrow are:
[ul]
[li]Arizona (58 delegates)[/li][li]Utah (40 delegates)[/li][li]American Samoa (9 delegates)[/li][/ul]
Doesn’t seem like much compared to other recent Tuesdays, but it gets more sparse than this for awhile - the next time this many delegates will be chosen at once is April 26.

Arizona is a true WTA state - whoever gets the most votes, gets all 58 delegates.

There’s been little recent polling in AZ, and none since Rubio dropped out. The most recent poll (March 7-11) had Trump 31, Cruz 19, Kasich 10, Rubio 10. 538 gives Trump an 84% chance of winning.

Utah is proportional, with the wrinkle that if one candidate gets >50% of the vote, it becomes WTA. And the one recent poll, taken late last week, showed Cruz 53, Kasich 29, Trump 11. Not enough recent polling for 538 to give a probability.

American Samoa’s got a caucus.

Current delegate counts, per 538: Trump 695, Cruz 424, Kasich 144, and Rubio’s suspended campaign has 166.

#2

So, if Trump takes Arizona, even if Cruz wins by 50% in Utah and takes American Samoa (I wonder if pollsters ever get to go there–sounds like a job I’d be willing to undertake…), he still loses ground, 58 to 49.

Arizona just might be well worth watching…Trump loses there, especially without any other wins, and the ‘word’ (see media, mass) on Wednesday will be that “he’s losing momentum”.

Interesting Times…

ETA: Just wanted to thank you, Rufus, for doing all this legwork for the SDMB; I for one do appreciate it.

#3

American Samoa still makes me think of Duke and Zonker from Doonesbury, back in the mid-1970s. Wonder if they still have volcano virgins? :wink:

Not to mention, it would make the road to 1237 that much tougher a lift. And any set of events that leaves the nomination unresolved as of June 8 is a good set of events, from my ‘confusion unto my enemies’ POV.

So right now, I’m saying: Go, Ted, you fucking asshole, win some primaries tomorrow!

Hey, I’m enjoying it! I’m a total junkie about stuff like this.

#4

I’ll say Joe Arpaio’s state will go with Trump and make him inevitable. The religion-driven voters in Utah will go with Cruz. Samoa is heavily Mormon too, AIUI, so he gets that too.

#5

The only downside to wishing Ted well is that if the Trump balloon starts to deflate it may well crash quickly to near zero.

At which point Ted walks into the convention with 1237 himself. I’m pretty sure both you and I consider that to be a disastrous outcome too.

I think there’s a lot of mainstream Rs that’ll gladly vote for Cruz in Nov out of a combo of party loyalty and ignorance of Cruz’s real nature. The Ds will try to educate folks on that point but both sides are well-trained to ignore the other sides’ propaganda regardless of its actual amount of truthfulness.

#6

I always preferred the old Irish “May those that love us, love us; and for those that don’t love us, May God turn their hearts; and if he can’t turn their hearts, may He turn their ankles, so we’ll know them by their limping.”

Lots of Republican voters limping to the polls…evil, am I…

The Democrats also have primaries in UT and AZ, and add Idaho to the mix. Right now Hiliary appears to be ahead in all of them, which will continue to help pad her lead, albeit with a limited number of delegates.

#7

I would expect Sanders to win both Utah and Idaho. Based on no actual, you know, evidence, such as polling data or anything, but on the overall demographic of lots of whites in a very conservative state (see Nebraska, or Kansas).

#8

With the campaign support he’s got now, I don’t see how Cruz can possibly lose.

“Hi, I’m Mitt Romney!” <click>

“Hi, I’m Mitt…” <click>

“Hi!” <click>

#9

I read a poll that said that Trump is trailing by more than 40 points in Utah, and the larger the Mormon proportion of the county, the larger the difference between Trump and Cruz.

#10

I think that if the Trump balloon were that easily deflated, it would have happened well before now.

Besides, I’d be quite happy with Cruz as the nominee. Everytime I look at him, I think Goldwater, only a lot more theocratic, and totally unlikable.

It’s hard to see that happening. Including tomorrow, there’s ~1000 delegates remaining, and Cruz would have to win ~800 of them. And over 300 of those delegates are from the Northeast, which would likely be Kasich country if it came down to Cruz v. Kasich.

Oh, sure. But they need ‘almost all,’ and they’re not going to get that.

#11

Indeed a president Trump and President Cruz would each be disastrous. My interests remain best served though by having their process be as ugly and as divisive as possible for as long as possible. Hard feelings by both of their groups of supporters and both frightening the bejeebies out of everyone else. I want those small but non-zero odds of either of them winning to be as close to zero as possible. Any chance is too much in my book.

#12

Arizona is having vote problems. What a surprise. For starters, people are standing in line for hours. And secondly, Democrats are reporting that they’re registered as independents and can’t get Democratic primary ballots.

#13

Sounds like there is indeed quite a mess going on in AZ–one article I looked at says that there are just 60 polling places in the entire state (!), down from 200 not so very long ago if I’m reading that right.

Not so clear that large numbers of Democrats are actually being told they can’t vote as Democrats, though: the articles at http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/22/live-arizona-primary-coverage-presidential-preference-election/82096726/ are suggesting that the big problem is lots of independents showing up and expecting to vote (which they can’t, as it’s a closed primary). Some quotes:

“Election officials were reporting a surge in provisional ballots as independent voters showed up at the polls.”

“These are independent voters,” Maricopa County Elections Director Karen Osborne said. “They refuse to not vote, and federal law requires they be given a ballot.”

This article (http://www.12news.com/news/local/valley/ariz-democratic-party-to-investigate-after-voters-told-theyre-not-eligible/96906041) says that “more than 20” voters have complained. Obviously, if there have been shenanigans, 20 is too many. But it doesn’t seem quite like an organized effort to deny voter rights.

Guess we’ll see whether the issue is people’s registration being changed without their knowledge or consent, or people claiming to be eligible when in fact they’re not, or some of both.

#14

Wow, only 60 polling places in Maricopa County, 4 million residents? By contrast here in St Louis County, MO about 1 million residents, 650K registered voters, over 400 polling places. But there are 92 municipalities in St Louis County.

#15

Polls are 5 minutes from closing - how long till the results start coming in?

#16

Arizona has been called by A.P already -
Trump and Clinton.

Trump running at 46% now and Clinton at 60

#17

Right now “Other” is beating everyone except Trump in Arizona.

#18

Yep. Clinton got the cherry of tonight’s crop. She will do no worse than break even with Bernie and that’s a major loss for the old white haired fart.

Bernie still doesn’t see the light. It’s too bad.

#19

Of course he does.

His campaign is more effective in pushing his agenda than anything else he could do, and gives Clinton the coverage that comes with a close media horse-race, keeping the eventual D candidate’s name in the news cycle. There’s absolutely no downside to his staying in the race, for him or for her.

#20

Allow me to shed some: Bernie beat Hillary yesterday 57-51 and had a hugely successful rally in California, where a win could really turn things around. Actually not a bad day for the old white-haired fart.