NH is soooooo yesterday. Let’s talk Nevada and Democrats. Feb 20 is right around the corner-- the end of next week.
Doing a little searching, including on 538, and there is essentially no polling data yet. What? No reliable polling yet in this country that lives and breathes polls?
Anyone know or have an idea what’s going on in Nevada? Any chance Bernie can win? I expect we’ll be seeing some polling soon…
I live in Las Vegas, and my impression so far is that right now, Bernie can’t win. Hillary’s machine is huge and she has been beating the drum for so long that she has a ton of support here. If our caucus were held in April, Bernie might have a chance: he has a lot of support from the under-35 crowd, but not as much from people older than that.
And contrary to what people are saying about the unions and Hillary, the only Las Vegas union local that I know of that has endorsed her is IBEW 357. Culinary, IATSE, SEIU, LIUNA locals have all declined to endorse a candidate for the caucus. Will rank-and-file members caucus the way their international wants them to? I think to a large degree they will, but not completely.
If Bernie had another 6-7 weeks to make his case and made a good showing in other states, he’d pick up a lot of ground here.
Also, our caucus (like our primaries before) is a closed caucus, so us independents aren’t able to participate; that hurts Sanders more than it hurts Clinton.
I work with union folks. A surprising number of them are livid with their Internationals for endorsing Hillary. Rank-and-filers are loving Bernie. I suspect in union-heavy Vegas, it may be Bernie, but I don’t know what the rest of the state looks like.
The rest of Nevada outside of Las Vegas is much more conservative, even the Democrats. I’ve little doubt Clinton will show strength and win the state. But who knows.
Looks like you had to be registered 30 days prior to the Nevada caucuses , so any so-called momentum Bernie might hope for with his new and disengaged voters won’t carry over unless they’ve already registered
No idea what actually will happen. Bernie has to take to the air and let people know who he is, and at the same time avoid the kitchen sink heading his way. Hillary’s attempt to lock up the nomination through the political machinery is not going over well with the rank and file. Bernie needs to make a respectable showing, winning this one primary is not important, but if he doesn’t get at least something like the Iowa dead heat it’s up to him to make progress in South Carolina too or his campaign will be seen as taking a down turn.
It’s Nevada. There are polls, but the bookies get a full week to take the first look at them before they’re published. State law.
I assume that’s a joke? Nevada state law prohibits any sports book from accepting bets on an election - and it’s pretty much the only ban that can’t be overridden by the Gaming Control Board.
This is correct and is one of the reasons why I said if our caucus were in 6-7 weeks, Bernie would do much, much better than he’s likely going to.
Then why are we always hearing about election odds as calculated by Vegas bookies?
Bookies do indeed calculate odds; there is no law against that.
And Don Guy I don’t you’re correct that it’s a Nevada state law that prevents sports books from accepting wagers on elections; IIRC it’s part of federal law. I seem to recall that one of our Senators tried to introduce a bill last year to allow wagering on political outcomes, but I think he withdrew the bill because no other Nevada Senator or Representative would back it.
Hey, that’s some good insider info. Thanks!
I can only speak for my house, but my wife is supporting Hillary just to spite me.
I heard that the Dems could register on-site, but I could be wrong. Don’t care enough to look it up. I know the GOP’ers had to be registered in advance.
Good point to keep in mimd. These are private elections, and each party makes its own rules. Remember in the Iowa caucus, the GOP just counted up votes and the Democrats had some Byzantine method that no one seemed to fully understand.
I just checked on this and it turns out that Gato is right; I was wrong. [
You can register as a Democrat at the door; you have to register as a Republican to vote in their caucus by Saturday (Feb 13).
I don’t have a good sense about how either election is going to go. It is clear that academia probably leans Sanders.
And I suppose I should ask here: I heard a rumor that you go in, vote, and go out quicker this year? Any idea how long the caucus will take? Is it the same for both parties?
Didn’t expect to live to ever read these words in that order.
My predictions: Bernie’s going to lose NV, and lose SC by a landslide. The best even-slightly-likely case scenario is that he exceeds expectations in NV - maaaybe a bit worse than the Iowa tie - and gets some positive media coverage to counteract the major loss in SC. But it’s not as if the race is going to get any easier after those two states.
I’ll be happy if I’m wrong, but I think the NH win is going to be the peak of his campaign. I really don’t understand the “Hillary sure must be panicking now!” narrative some media outlets have going on - the Clinton campaign has always known they were going to lose NH. It’s literally the perfect fit for Bernie, short of Vermont. Nothing so far has been a big surprise.
The thing is, even though Bernie may have “won” New Hampshire, if you look at the delegate counts in New Hampshire, Hillary currently has more New Hampshire delegates committed to her than he does. So if I were her, I wouldn’t panic yet.
Only if all of the superdelegates support her.