Why? He must know he can’t win the WH that way.
Should this happen — and as noted above, Trump is backing away from his pledge to support the GOP nominee — the really interesting stories will most likely be downstream. It’s unlikely that the Democrats would be able to retake the House, but they would have an excellent chance in the Senate (especially since the Republicans are defending 24 seats to the Democrats’ 10 this time around).
Damn. Think I’ll need more popcorn.
The threat of a party schism is enough to squash any nonsense of a brokered convention. And it won’t be about winning if The Donald gets screwed.
Exactly.
Trump has tweeted the WSJ has reported the GOP is planning big spending to defeat him and “that wasn’t part of the deal”.
Indeed it wasn’t. If the party treats him like a candidate in good standing, then he is welshing on a commitment if he goes independent. But if the party treats him as an interloper to be got rid of, then they’re the ones who are welshing on the deal, and he’s got every right to head for the door before they push him out and slam it behind him.
Given that Trump polls substantially better in Internet polls (such as CBS/YouGov and Morning Consult) than he does in standard polls, I think it’s reasonable to assume that his support is, at a minimum, what the standard polls say it is.
How hard would it be to have all the systems in place? I know he would have lots of resources from 2012, but these thing pretty complex.
Back to Trump, The Fix has this to say about him.
I wouldn’t put it past the GOP party bosses to actually put the fix in.
Not that I think they’ll need to. They’ve already re-jiggered the rules to make it more likely an independent Republican will lose fair and square. As per FiveThirtyEight, Blue State Republicans have a disproportionate influence in deciding primaries because all districts have the same number of delegates, regardless of how many Republican voters they have. This works to moderate the party’s choice because primary candidates have to appeal to people in largely Democratic regions just as much as they must win over the most Conservative of the Republicans. So given how red the popular independent Republicans are, the more moderate party Republicans have structural advantages.
That said, I still wouldn’t completely rule out a bit of actual dishonesty if it came down to it and it looked as if their usual honest tricks weren’t working. I’m sure Trump supporters will have some really juicy conspiracy theories by this time next year.
I agree. He’s got them over a barrel, really.
Yeah, I’m just not sure it’ll make much difference. If Rubio can keep his campaign alive by winning one of the four early primaries, then maybe he can play rope-a-dope until the calendar becomes his friend. But if he can’t, and then Cruz crushes him on Super Tuesday, it’s hard to see Rubio having the money to run a viable Blue State campaign later on.
Suppose all the Establishment candidates get winnowed? One problem they have this cycle is that none of them are all that strong. Rubio’s the strongest of the bunch, and he comes across as having a high school debate team member’s grasp of policy. I know Nate Silver has his simulations, but I’m not sure they can account for this.
has anyone else seen this???
Ha, that’s an official Kasich ad? Wow.
We laugh because it is funny, and we laugh because it is true, and it is not funny.
I wonder what happens if all the other Republicans join in and Trump’s poll numbers and popularity do legit go so low he couldn’t even mount a Naderesque bid.
But then again, it could merely resemble this (I think we know who Kasich would be emulating here)
It’s irrelevant. Kasich is a no-hope known to be too liberal for the field; in terms of his supporters, he’s preaching to the choir, in terms of people who don’t already want a more liberal Republican candidate, it’s too easy to dismiss him as a RINO and ignore him entirely.
My belief that clowns like Trump or Cruz have little chance to win the nomination wasn’t based on leftist or centrist disapproval. It was based on the idea that an ample portion of right-wing adult leadership, however despicable they may be, is fundamentally intelligent and sane. Am I wrong?
true but if a bunch of Republicans do what Trump does, make noise and bombast, which these Nazi ads could potentially do, then it could be consequential in terms of getting out low running primary opponents so its only Rubio and/or Cruz vs. Trump.
You’re not wrong. Silver agrees with you, in fact; his thesis is that the party decides primaries to a large extent, because they set the rules and decide how to allocate endorsements, both of which are consequential when it gets down to the nitty-gritty of narrowing the field.
The thing with Trump and Carson all along is that they’re people the Republican establishment can’t stomach. Back in 2011 and 2012, they would have been like Bachmann: On top for a few weeks but ultimately getting winnowed out entirely as the party turned its attention on them and exposed their weaknesses. The fact Trump and now Carson have been able to stay on top for this long, the story goes, is a weakness in the party leadership, such that it’s unable to muster enough unanimity to remove these blatant no-hope idiots from the field and focus attention on their preferred slate of minimally acceptable Republicans.
What they do now will affect them in the generals. If they all go hog wild and emulate Trump in a bid to get attention, it will be more ammunition for Clinton to use against them in 2016, as she attempts to peel Republican-leading moderates away from the scary clown car the GOP’s candidate emerged from.
Of course, what’s worse is that it could backfire: First, if you fight an idiot, they’ll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. That’s the tactical flaw in the plan, the fact Trump has been Trump for decades now and knows how to be a massive charismatic jackass in a way none of the Adult Republicans can really match. Second, the strategic flaw is that Trump is saying things a number of Republicans want to hear, so attacking him means distancing yourself from those constituencies and losing votes. You might be able to pick up votes from independents and moderates, but, well, see the previous point.
Careful. Trump has already cleared stage 1. So that puts him at 4% as Nate pointed out on Oct 20th. And I think by now Trump has cleared Stage 2. So he has 8% odds, according to the Silver model.
I’m thinking that Carson could take Iowa. Will Trump take New Hampshire? Carson won’t. If Trump does, he has a good shot at dividing Super Tuesday with Rubio, with Trump in the dominating position. Then all hell breaks loose as half the GOP establishment tries to squelch Trumpmentum while the other half tries to figure out how they can argue -to themselves and others- that this ignorant and mendatious buffoon is superior to Hillary.
I predict that liberals will salivate at the prospect of a brokered GOP convention. Or at least one will.
Your link has 979 views so far. Not exactly breaking the internet.
Trump responded to the announced Kasich ad-buy on twitter, back on Nov 19. It’s only fair to quote them:
[INDENT]Governor Kasich, whose failed campaign & debating skills have brought him way down in the polls, is going to spend $2.5 million against me.
1,083 retweets 2,614 likes
John Kasich should focus his special interest money on building up his failed image, not negative ads on me.
John Kasich, despite being Governor of Ohio, is losing to me in the Ohio polls. Pathetic!
1,498 retweets 3,833 likes
I want to do negative ads on John Kasich, but he is so irrelevant to the race that I don’t want to waste my money.
3,188 retweets 6,843 likes
Watch Kasich squirm — if he is not truthful in his negative ads I will sue him just for fun!
Kasich has already spent $6 million on ads in New Hampshire and his numbers have gone down. People from NH are smart!
1,307 retweets 3,934 likes
I loved beating John Kasich in the debates, but it was easy—he came in dead last!
1,224 retweets 3,455 likes
John Kasich ad guy wanted to work for me, but his proposal was a rip off – I said NO! Now ripping Kasich.
1,085 retweets 3,013 likes
Doesn’t help Kasich to do negative ads on me because he still has to go through everyone else - he’s almost last.
1,184 retweets 3,297 likes
Once John Kasich announced he was running for president, and opened his mouth, people realized he was a complete & total dud!
1,486 retweets 4,149 likes
John Kasich was managing director of Lehman Brothers when it crashed, bringing down the world and ruining people’s lives. A total failure!
1,720 retweets 3,925 likes
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