And stock prices go up?! For how long?
Two weeks.
Oil prices were affected by the fact that Iran chose not to fuck with the Strait of Hormuz (I don’t know how to spell it.), expectations were that Iran would fuck with it.
The “investor class” that buys and sells on a daily basis is, as a whole, nuts. Tomorrow some big company might have a bad quarter and/or jobless claims will decline, they’ll be shrieking “Sell! Sell!” and the markets will drop big time.
“Buy on rumor, sell on fact” is an old Wall Street adage.
It’s a behavioral thing, but seems to be pretty accurate percentage wise. At least, during my days at UBS and other investment banks. Short term speculators tend to create/follow/herd mentality the trend of the day, and when those rumors become real, then dump their holdings immediately.
Markets are efficient over time, and rarely in the short term.
If I can be forgiven for questioning the premise, Trump did not start a war between Iran and the U.S. Instead he bombed Iran for a few hours.
Contrast with the three months or so of U.S. bombing of Yemen. That was more of a war, or at least it was a sustained campaign (seems to have ended last month).
I suppose Iran attacked us first?
Oil prices rose when Israel started binning Iran two weeks ago and then went back where they started when Trump ended it with his bombardment:
Also, he briefly joined an ongoing war, he didn’t start one. Saying he started a war is like saying that WW2 began in December 1941.
There are probably quite a few Americans who’d agree with that statement.
I hope we can agree that WWII started with the Mukden Incident on september 18, 1931.
Concerning the gas prices going down and the shares rising, recent price oscillations in world markets have me flummoxed. I suspect somebody is cheating big time, it’s just that I cannot fathom how they are doing it and I can only speculate who those manipulators may be. But gas prices are nothing compared to what is happening with Tesla and AI, for instance, or the gold price, or short and long term interest rates.
Yet … They simply might be holding that Trump card (pun definitely intended) for a little while longer. “Haven’t” doesn’t necessarily mean “won’t”.
Right. The price spiked with Israel’s first strikes on June 13 and stayed high until Monday. Prices are based on future expectations and for those ten days the future looked like a prolonged war and closing of the Strait. Now the future looks as if the Strait will be more open than in recent months. Always look six months to a year out to understand speculator thinking.