Well, that’s why it hasn’t been reported since 1974.
I think it’s pretty frackin’ smackin’ freakin’ awesome that a question answered over a decade ago can be answered now. Big round of applause for everyone! I sure hope the original poster is still around, hehe!! Maybe someone should message him/her to let s/he know that the mystery has been solved
The OP hasn’t posted since November '02, so I wouldn’t hold your breath.
I’d say the odds of two royal flushes happening are very low. It’s like the chances of both remaining Star Wars Prequels and the (rumored) two Matrix sequels being terrible.
I mean, you just know they’ll be decent, right?
I would have loved to hear the bidding for that round. How quickly did they get to seven no trump?
My worst Bad Beat story is remarkably similar. I started with pocket queens and flopped the set. Picked up the fourth queen on the turn and was betting against a guy that filled his straight flush with the river card.
Bastard keep up with my raises when he had nothing. And spent the rest of the game crowing about what a genius he was. Asshole.
Y’know, poker players really ought to be happy about bad beats. It’s the bad beats that keep the suckers in the game, and eventually, if they stick around, skill will prevail and get you your money back.
A bad beat doesn’t necessarily involve bad play.
Given that seven no trump goes thirteen off, I’d guess “never”. Presumably whoever had the spades called seven spades first chance and opponents called fix shortly afterwards.
I thought that was why it was called a bad beat, because you did everything right and got hosed - no?
Yes; the players should be able to work out what the deal was sooner or later, regardless of the order. For example, if the dealer holds all the clubs, next player has all the diamonds, etc., then the bidding would go 7C, 7D, 7H, 7S. By this time the dealer can have a pretty good idea that bidding 7NT in this spot would be suicide, and 7S makes. If the dealer holds all the spades, clearly he is going to open 7S. The next player to bid, seeing his hand full of hearts (but, of course, prevented from bidding 7H) must realise that in 7NT he will make no tricks, as he will never get on lead. Similarly for the other players, so on this deal 7S will always be bid and made.
I started typing this post thinking that the order of the hands could make a difference, but I now see that it does not.
These two statements seem to be agreeing with each other. I agree also :).
To elucidate further, RNATB seems to be rebutting Chronos’s point, and he is correct. But I would say most bad beats will involve bad play, typically, as Bricker’s story illustrates, someone staying in the betting long after it was mathematically correct for them to fold, and then hitting a very unlikely card to win the hand. Chronos is correct that in the long run, the better player will make more money. But unfortunately “the long run” is not very helpful when you are already broke :). By analogy, this is why it has become unusual for a top professional player to win the WSOP - there are too many situations where the format forces you to try to get lucky, and at some point you will lose no matter how skilled you are.
Wait a second. I’m East, holding a hand full of thirteen clubs, let’s say. The dealer bids 7H. How do I know that I can’t make a trick in 7NT?
Yeah, but you might not have been hosed because the other guy did something stupid. For example, you might flop trips and bet it aggressively, but have someone on a paid plus draw (for example) call you down because of the pot odds.
If he makes his flush on the river, it’s a bad beat, but that doesn’t mean he did anything wrong.
If you want to win a trick with a club in a NT game, someone needs to lead a club. If you have all 13 clubs, the only person who can lead clubs is you. But if you win the bidding at 7NT, you don’t get to lead. Since you don’t get to lead, clubs never get led, and your clubs can never win a trick. That’s irrespective of what everyone else plays.
That should say “pair plus draw”.
Plus, if you learn that someone else is holding all of one suit, and you’re holding all of one suit, too, you should probably assume that the other two players are also holding all of one suit. A naive statistical approach would assume that there’s only one chance in 5.2 million of that being the case, but that’s because the naive approach assumes that the shuffle was truly random. Really, though, by the time you’ve got two complete suits being dealt out to people, you should probably already consider the premise of a true random shuffle to have been refuted.
Two Royal Flushes were dealt in consecutive hands at one table yesterday, Sept. 29, 2011, at a table at which I was sitting at the Snake’s Poker Club in Kahnawake, Quebec at approximately 10:00 pm.
This occurred in a NLHE $60 single rebuy tournament with 80 players. There were 10 players at table 4. The hands were dealt to seats 3 and 4. The first hand beat an A-high straight. The second beat a set of Q’s to a player holding pocket QQ. The first was a diamond RF made on the river, player held AJ with only the J playing to make the RF. The second was a spade RF made right on the KQJs flop, with the player holding ATs. Needless to say we were all :eek: at the turn of events.
Don’t think I’ll ever see that again. I was not dealt either of these RF.:smack:
Wonder how many times this has happened in the history of holdem!
One more twist to the story, the next hand produced a heart flush with 4 cards to a 10-high straight flush.
Cheers to all you rocket seekers out there.
points and laughs at Bricker
:smack:
:eek:
That logic can hurt you. I was played 5/10 poker years ago. I had aces full. I read my opponent as having a straight early. Then his hand was turning red with Diamonds. I figured he was flushing and my hand was pretty well hidden
The logic was, I have never seen a straight flush in a money game. Whats my odds that one will show up when I have aces full.
The odds were pretty good. It was Jack high. It hurt big time.
The chance of a spade royal flush in a single Hold-em hand is
p = 47C2 / 52C7 = .00000808015513897866
The chance of a spade royal flush for any of the ten players in one hand is
10p - 9 / 52C5
(This assumes they all stay in to watch flop & river. The case where the board itself has the royal flush was counted ten times, so subtract it nine times.) Multiply by four for the four suits to get
r = .00030935451103518300
To get two consecutive such hands in a session of 100 hands is about 99rr or about 105,550 to 1.
These odds aren’t as bad as I would have guessed and given the number of card rooms just in U.S.A., one might guess it happens somewhere once a month or so. Still, I’d think Dopers naive if they assume the event is no more common than random odds would dictate.
Playing the odds always has the potential to hurt you. Obviously the short end is going to come up occasionally. It doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it.
Amusingly, the first Google hit for “you just don’t worry about quads” is my post above. There’s a plain text transcript of Doyle’s book, Super System 2, where the quote comes from here, though.