U.S. Army report: Bad economy & civil unrest may require military action

[BrainGlutton]

Story here:

EL PASO – A U.S. Army War College report warns an economic crisis in the United States could lead to massive civil unrest and the need to call on the military to restore order.

Retired Army Lt. Col. Nathan Freir wrote the report “Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense Strategy Development,” which the Army think tank in Carlisle, Pa., recently released.

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities … to defend basic domestic order and human security,” the report said, in case of “unforeseen economic collapse,” “pervasive public health emergencies,” and “catastrophic natural and human disasters,” among other possible crises.

The report also suggests the new (Barack Obama) administration could face a “strategic shock” within the first eight months in office.

Issues for debate:

1. Is it really possible things will get that bad?

2. Would it be a cure worse than the disease?

3. Would there be (organized) resistance?

4. Would such action be legal, under the Posse Comitatus Act?

5. What are the chances President Obama would actually resort to it?

6. Would American troops have a problem with opening fire on American civilians?

7. Assuming things do get that bad . . . is there any other way?

[Todderbob]

1. Is it really possible things will get that bad?
   Anything is possible. Imho, it’s unlikely.
2. Would it be a cure worse than the disease?
   I’m a strict Libertarian, so my opinion is that any government intervention (with the few exceptions) is a bad thing.
3. Would there be (organized) resistance?
   Depends on the extent of the deployment.
4. Would such action be legal, under the Posse Comitatus Act?
   IANAL, but it seems like it would depend on whether or not the orders were coming from the president directly, or coming from the president through the Governments of the individual States.
5. What are the chances President Obama would actually resort to it?
   I have no idea.
6. Would American troops have a problem with opening fire on American civilians?
   IIRC, there was a poll done under Clinton or Bush 1 that said something along the lines of 70% of troops would resist or object to firing on Civilian populations, I’ll see if I can dig it up.
7. Assuming things do get that bad . . . is there any other way?
   There’s always another way, it’s just a question of whether or not we can see the trees through the forest.

[Cervaise]

The whole point of a think tank is to produce documents and speculation on a wide range of hypothetical scenarios, plausible and not. I’m sure somebody somewhere in one of these intellectual sausage-grinding outfits wrote a thousand-page report on the most effective way to invade and conquer the Netherlands, should it be necessary, but that doesn’t mean the people of Amsterdam need to start hoarding ammunition, canned goods, and bud.

[Tristan]

Misleading title. US Army War College is not necessarily the same as the US Army.

[John_Mace]

From your link:

Charles Boehmer, political science professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, was skeptical about the Army War College report.

“The military was not called out during the Great Depression, and I don’t think our economic problems are as bad as they were then,” he said. “The military always has contingency plans. It’s a think tank’s job to come up with scenarios, but that doesn’t mean it represents an active interest on the part of the (Pentagon).”

[Elendil_s_Heir]

Agreed. I’m not looking for tanks in the streets just yet, if ever.

[John_Mace]

I think it more likely that we will invade Iran in the next month. And you know how likely I think that is.

[toadspittle]

@John_Mace

From your link:
Charles Boehmer, political science professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, was skeptical about the Army War College report.

**“The military was not called out during the Great Depression, **and I don’t think our economic problems are as bad as they were then,” he said.

The Professor needs to have his tenure (if any) revoked.

Bonus Army

[Kent_Clark]

@toadspittle

The Professor needs to have his tenure (if any) revoked.

Bonus Army

And not just then. Federal troops were used to integrate Southern schools, they were called up during the New York draft riots of 1863, Detroit race riot of 1943, riots in the 1960s and other times.

It’s not THAT unusual that the situation might arise that federal troops are called in if rioting overwhelms police and the state National Guard. Troops come in, rioting gets suppressed and troops move out. Don’t lose sleep over it.

[Todderbob]

Nevermind… I misread.

[BrainGlutton]

@kunilou

Troops come in, rioting gets suppressed and troops move out. Don’t lose sleep over it.

If they move out . . .

[Camus]

@toadspittle

The Professor needs to have his tenure (if any) revoked.

Bonus Army

Given the context of the report, it’s likely that the professor was referring to the military being deployed in a kind of widespread, nationwide, martial law way that the report was potentially envisioning. The Bonus Army situation and some of the riots and other situations that federal/national guard troops were used for were fairly isolated incidents and certainly didn’t involve numerous, widespread and simultaneous occurrences across the country.

[cckerberos]

@Tristan

Misleading title. US Army War College is not necessarily the same as the US Army.

Agreed.

The actual report is here, btw, in case anyone is interested.

[willthekittensurvive]

@Cervaise

The whole point of a think tank is to produce documents and speculation on a wide range of hypothetical scenarios, plausible and not. I’m sure somebody somewhere in one of these intellectual sausage-grinding outfits wrote a thousand-page report on the most effective way to invade and conquer the Netherlands, should it be necessary, but that doesn’t mean the people of Amsterdam need to start hoarding ammunition, canned goods, and bud.

well actually…

Congress has approved legislation to protect Americans from
prosecution by the soon-to-be-established International Criminal
Court in The Hague. The US is not party to the treaty that created
the new court, and lawmakers are concerned that American officials or
service personnel could one day face war crimes charges there. The
American Service Members Protection Act authorizes the president to
use all means necessary to free any American held by the new
tribunal. The court’s host country is the Netherlands, a NATO ally,
and Dutch politicians are seething over what they call the Hague
Invasion Act. Greg

http://www.amicc.org/docs/June14_02.pdf euhm pdf

[gonzomax]

Thats what think tanks do. They just permute their little hearts away trying to find every possibility. It does not necessarily equate to a government policy. Although they do try to suggest remedies.
Unless of course the “Project for a New American Century” which actually did help determine Bush’s policy.

[carnivorousplant]

@kunilou

Federal troops were used to integrate Southern schools,

But they didn’t shoot anyone. Although I’ve seen photos of fixed bayonets, I worked with a guy who said the 101st Airborne bought him liquor and cigarettes when he was a student at Central High.

[BrainGlutton]

@Tristan

Misleading title. US Army War College is not necessarily the same as the US Army.

I thought about that; would’ve been too long for the title line. The War College certainly is a branch of the Army, in any case.

[BrainGlutton]

@carnivorousplant

But they didn’t shoot anyone. Although I’ve seen photos of fixed bayonets, I worked with a guy who said the 101st Airborne bought him liquor and cigarettes when he was a student at Central High.

Whoo! Imagine public reaction if that happened today! :eek:

[Dangerosa]

@gonzomax

Thats what think tanks do. They just permute their little hearts away trying to find every possibility. It does not necessarily equate to a government policy. Although they do try to suggest remedies.
Unless of course the “Project for a New American Century” which actually did help determine Bush’s policy.

Think of it as job creation for intellectuals. If we didn’t employ people to write reports on unlikely events for the government, they’d be competing for jobs as WalMart greeters.