U.S. Senate Elections Thread (and House too, if you want)

[Marley23]

@Squink

If Stevens is kicked out, rather than loses, Palin can run in the special election to replace him.

Although I have yet to see anyone explain why she would do that.

[Captain_Carrot]

@RTFirefly

And given what a pittance $10,000 is, compared to the cost of a Senate campaign(emphasis mine), there’s precious little reason for the losing candidate not to ask for a recount if the margin is above 0.5%.

Yeah, but this is a Senate campaign in Alaska. How much do you think it costs to advertise to only ten people, most of whom are related to Sarah Palin?

[Fish]

@Captain_Carrot

Yeah, but this is a Senate campaign in Alaska. How much do you think it costs to advertise to only ten people, most of whom are related to Sarah Palin?

I dunno, how much is a housing remodel in Alaska these days?

[RTFirefly]

@Captain_Carrot

Yeah, but this is a Senate campaign in Alaska. How much do you think it costs to advertise to only ten people, most of whom are related to Sarah Palin?

Yer bad.

[DSeid]

@Marley23

Although I have yet to see anyone explain why she would do that.

The best explanation I’ve read of why she’d do that is money. Apparently by law she cannot do things like “write” and sell books and make money in other celebrity related supplemental manners as a governor but can as a Senator. The time to cash in on her celebritihood is now.

Also times are going to get tough for a governor of Alaska - oil is down and major revenue shortfalls are looming. The time to leave the ship is now too.

It does appear that she is stuck with it however.

[Frank]

@DSeid

The best explanation I’ve read of why she’d do that is money. Apparently by law she cannot do things like “write” and sell books and make money in other celebrity related supplemental manners as a governor but can as a Senator.

Another explanation could be that it would make travel to places like Iowa and New Hampshire ever so much easier if she’s based in D.C. instead of Alaska.

[RTFirefly]

I think there’s a few things:
0) She’s ambitious.

1. She’s really *not *interested in the hard work of governing.
2. At this point, her record as governor looks OK, but that won’t hold up.
3. As governor of Alaska, she’s largely out of the public eye with respect to national politics. In order to play in the majors, she’s got to either get out of Alaska, or spend a lot less time there.
4. She’s good at wingnut sloganeering. You can do that as Senator.
5. You don’t really have a record of accomplishment or failure as Senator. And she already knows which way to vote to keep her fans happy.
6. And what DSeid and Frank said. Plus Senate recesses would allow her a lot of time to make speeches to wingnut gatherings.

Altogether, being a Senator fits much better with Palin’s skill set and her ambitions. I’m sure she senses this. She’s dumb with respect to policy, but she’s shrewd with respect to the main chance. (In this regard, she reminds me very much of Scarlett O’Hara, but from the book more than the movie.)

[ITR_champion]

@Captain_Carrot

How the hell is it taking them this long to count the votes?! It’s been a week, and they’ve barely done anything! I’d think that they’d be done in Alaska, at least, seeing as how they have so many fewer ballots to look at.

It takes the sled dogs a long time to haul the ballots from the polling places to district headquarters. You got a problem with that?

[RTFirefly]

Looks like the sled dogs have hauled another ~17,000 ballots in so far today, and Begich’s lead is up to 1,022: 138959 to 137,937.

The Presidential turnout stands at 300,113.

[RTFirefly]

The Anchorage Daily News thinks Stevens’ chances are slim:

More than 90 percent of the votes are now counted, and Friday’s count of absentee and questioned ballots could have been Stevens’ best chance to make a comeback.

That’s because it included all the ballots left from the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, where Stevens has enjoyed his most unwavering support.

There are about 24,000 ballots left to be counted, coming from Anchorage, Southeast Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula. The state will tally them all Tuesday.

Dallas Massie, state Republican Party district chair from Wasilla, in the heart of the Mat-Su, said he thought Friday would be a day Stevens closed the gap. The senator, however, saw Begich’s lead grow by more than 200…

…

The state counted 14,508 votes on Friday. Elections officials finished off the remaining ballots from northern and western Alaska, the Mat-Su and the Fairbanks region, including the North Pole area, where Stevens is hugely popular.

Stevens has a big challenge. Tuesday’s count will include more than 4,500 ballots from heavily pro-Begich Southeast Alaska.

That’s more than twice what’s left to tally from the Stevens strongholds of Kenai, Sterling and Nikiski. Also, ballots remain from pro-Begich Homer and Kodiak.

Most of the remaining votes, nearly 16,000, are from Anchorage and Eagle River. Begich holds a slim lead so far in those election districts. So the ballots would have to break far differently Tuesday for Stevens to gain much ground there.

The article also addressed the slowness of the counting:

Ballot counting won’t resume until Tuesday so the state can confirm the remaining ballots are bona fide. That kind of review is why the count has stretched over two weeks.

And the possibility of a recount:

The Begich campaign said the race is clearly headed for a recount in early December. The campaign sent out a fundraising appeal Friday night, asking its supporters for money “to prepare for the onslaught of Republican lawyers we expect to come from the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Campaign to fight on behalf of Sen. Stevens.” The Democrats have their own lawyers they need to fund for a recount.

Recent Alaska recounts, though, have resulted in little change in the final tally.

So that’s where things stand. Shouldn’t be any new news about this race until Tuesday afternoon, Eastern time.

[Liberal]

Nate Silver told Chris Matthews last night that Begich will win. That almost settles it, as far as I’m concerned.

[RTFirefly]

Given that everybody’s going on about how great Nate Silver is (which I totally agree with, btw), I’m surprised this xkcd hasn’t gotten a bit more play. (The punch line’s in the mouse-over text, btw.)

[RTFirefly]

Coleman’s lead now up to a whopping 215 votes. MN recount starts tomorrow.

[RTFirefly]

Looks like the Alaskan sled dogs have brought in another ~16,000 ballots. Begich currently leads, 146,286 to 143,912.

If he sustains that lead, Stevens would have to pay to have a recount done.

[Spoke]

What are the odds, I wonder, that a recount will change the Minnesota outcome?

Bill Clinton will be visiting Georgia tomorrow for a get-out-the-vote rally on behalf of Jim Martin. I’m not sure what such rallies actually accomplish.

More importantly, to my way of thinking, the Obama get-out-the-vote machinery seems to be in gear. Lines are reported at early voting locations, and Obama poll-watchers have been asked to serve again for the Senate runoff.

[Chronos]

What are the odds, I wonder, that a recount will change the Minnesota outcome?

Difficult to say, since the odds depend very heavily on what assumptions you make about things like the proportion of disputed votes which favor Franken. Nate Silver seems to think that the parameter values are in the territory which gives Franken very strong odds, but I don’t think there’s any objective basis on which to say the likelihood of the various parameter values.

The real drama is going to be in Georgia… Even Silver doesn’t pretend to know which way that’s going to swing.

[RTFirefly]

@RTFirefly

Looks like the Alaskan sled dogs have brought in another ~16,000 ballots. Begich currently leads, 146,286 to 143,912.

After what should be the last significant chunk (~8,000-9,000) of ballots to be counted, Begich’s vote count is now 150,728 to 147,004 for Sen. Tubes.

The Anchorage Daily News:

Democrat Mark Begich has defeated Republican Sen. Ted Stevens in the election for U.S. Senate.

The Anchorage mayor widened his lead to 3,724 votes in today’s counting of absentee and questioned ballots. The only votes left to count are approximately 2,500 special absentees from people living outside the U.S. or in remote parts of Alaska with no polling place.

The state will count those final ballots on Nov. 25.

Congratulations, Sen.-Elect Mark Begich! Stop by and pick up your jersey - it’s the one with a big #58 on the back.

[Frostillicus]

Ted Stevens can now spend his time surfing the internet from his prison cell.

[Marley23]

Alas, Stevens’ reputation has gone down a series of tubes.

[RTFirefly]

Star-Tribune: Coleman’s Lead Down to 174