U.S. Senate Elections Thread (and House too, if you want)

Great Debates
121

Martin is just not a good candidate. If it’s possible to have negative charisma, he has it. I’m really disappointed that none of Georgia’s brighter Democratic stars got into the race. (Like Cathy Cox, for example. If she had run, she’d have won.)

I am not optimistic about the race at this point. Republicans are pouring everything they have into this. Yesterday, I saw three negative ads against Martin run back-to-back-to-back, each sponsored by a different organization. (All were of the “Jim Martin is going to raise your taxes! oooooh!” variety.)

It’s hard to imagine people standing in line to vote for Martin.

122

Guess we’ll find out tomorrow night.

123

I realize this is more of an issue for 2010, but Republican Sen. Mel Martinez (FL) is retiring.

124

Meanwhile, back in the Twine Ball State, Al Franken had a net gain of 37 votes from one precinct where 171 ballots had been trapped in a malfunctioning voting machine:

Overall, the correlation at the county level between net gain on the recount, and net lead in number of challenges, is pretty striking. With the lone exception of Ramsey County, any county where either candidate had a double-digit net gain, it can mostly be explained by that candidate’s greater number of challenges.

For instance, Franken had a net gain of 23 in Anoka County, where he filed 28 more challenges than Coleman. Similarly, Coleman had a net gain of 21 in Blue Earth County, where he filed 19 more challenges than Franken.

125

All the major news organizations have declared victory for Chambliss.

126

In Georgia, Chambliss wins big.

127

With Coleman officially leading by 238 votes.

Two points:

  1. This number doesn’t mean jack shit.

  2. It’s just a first step anyway.

It doesn’t mean jack shit, because aside from the recount’s first couple of days, when neither side had gone apeshit with the challenges yet, its ups and downs have almost always had more to do with the relative number of challenges than with anything else.

For instance, yesterday, Coleman led by 316. The drop in his lead seems to have principally resulted from the Franken team’s having challenged 101 more ballot decisions than the Coleman team in Wright County, one of the last two counties to finish up the recount. (Altogether, Coleman’s challenged 3376 ballot decisions, and Franken’s challenged 3281.)

And the subsequent steps:

First, each candidate has already dropped ~600 challenges, that aren’t included in the linked count yet. Chances are each candidate will probably drop a bunch more challenges before all the challenges are reviewed and decided on December 16.

Second, there’s the matter of the uncounted absentee ballots. MN law apparently gives four grounds for rejecting an absentee ballot, and it remains to be seen (a) how many of the uncounted absentee ballots were rejected on grounds other than those four, (b) who the persons who cast those ballots voted for, and (c) whether they’ll be counted, and (d) if so, after how many court battles.

Third, there’s the missing 133 ballots that were counted on Election Day with Franken netting an edge of 46 votes. The original total from those ballots may or may not be included in the final count (there’s precedent for its inclusion), but either way, that’s likely to go to court too.

Nothing but good times ahead. :wink:

128

To this point it seems like everything that could happen in this election has happened, with the exception of a tie resolved in a coinflip. So I won’t be too surprised if that’s how it ends.

129

Nah, we haven’t seen a disagreement between the popular and electoral vote, like we had in 2000, and we didn’t see a third party candidate snag any EVs, and it remains to be seen if we’ll see any faithless electors. There’s plenty of things that didn’t happen this election.

130

I meant in Minnesota specifically.

131

Ah, gotcha. Well, worst case scenario, Al’s got plenty of fodder for his next book out of this.

132

For some reason, the count has changed to Coleman by 192, still with the 6000+ challenges excluded.

I’m guessing it has something to do with the treatment of the missing 133 ballots, even though I can’t figure out what. My reasoning, such as it is, is that the difference between the original post-recount margin of 238 and the current post-recount margin of 192 is 46 - and the net margin of Franken votes over Coleman votes in the missing envelope was supposed to be…46.

Could be coincidence, but if I had to bet one way or the other, I’d bet on a connection.

Moving on, Franken says if the state Canvassing Board, which decides the challenges, upholds all the local election judges’ decisions, he’ll lead by four votes.

Obviously some of those challenges will be successful - some of those decisions by the local judges will be overturned by the Canvassing Board.

So if Franken’s right, the results of the recount will come down to which side had more ‘quality’ challenges to those rulings. Most of the 6000+ challenges are clearly a total waste of time, an exercise in political gamesmanship.

But again, that’s just the recount. There’s also the absentee ballots, and the missing envelope with the 133 votes.

And the inevitable court challenges.

133

“Minnesota’s recount is a long way from over. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to predict the winner, I would tell you to shoot me.”
-Nate Silver

134

Since the title technically makes this a House discussion as well – wow!. Yeah, Jefferson’s a slimeball but this is a district that’s about as overwhelmingly Democrat as they get. I hope Cao enjoys the next two years, having that big target on his back!

135

He seems like a decent guy - here’s his action issues page - reading that I’d rather have him in than slimeball. So people can look past the paerty label alone. Good.

136

It’s actually the most partisan in the country (Utah has an R+26 district), and there’s no way in hell Cao’s getting reelected. Not with only two years, and against someone not tainted by scandal. Having six years is the only reason Begich might have a chance to get reelected in 2014.

137

I think I read the same thing you did (can’t remember where right now), but I think you misread it. LA-4 has a heavier lean in the Dem direction at D+28 than any district does in a GOP direction, with UT-3 being the GOP champ at R+26.

But LA-4 is far from the most partisan district in the country. That honor would go to NY-15 and NY-16 at D+43, and if I’ve counted right, there are 23 congressional districts with PVI of D+30 or higher.

The flip side of such ultra-safe districts is that every CD with a D+30 PVI is balanced out by (not exactly, but) something like five CDs with a PVI of R+6 or three with a PVI of R+10 or some other combination summing to R+30, since the nation as a whole should have a zero PVI. Where possible, Dems need to spread their wealth around in the next redistricting, since LA-04 is the only GOP-held district with a more Dem PVI than D+7.

138

I can’t say I’m disappointed about Cao. Sometimes, keeping your own party clean means you have to give the other guys a chance for a while.

Eh, that all looks like local issues, to me… There’s not much there about anything on the national scale, which he’s going to be a part of for the next couple of years. Still, there’s definitely nothing there more objectionable than Jefferson’s cold cash.

139

The Dems just won the OH-15 House seat, as Mary Jo Kilroy, who had been trailing by 149 votes, won a lopsided majority of provisional ballots to win by 2,311 votes.

There are only two House races that are still in any way up in the air: LA-04, where Fleming, the Republican, ended the day last night with a 356-vote lead over Carmouche, and VA-05, where Perriello has led Goode by 745 for the past three or four weeks. Apparently there may still be some provisional ballots to count in LA-04, and I have no idea what’s still unresolved in VA-05.

The current tally is that the Dems control 256 seats and the GOP 177, so if Fleming and Perriello maintain their leads, the final tally would be 257-178.

Clear evidence that America’s a center-right country. :wink:

140

A focus on education, preserving wetlands, jobs, healthcare, rebuilding infrastructure. Those dovetail into the national issues, especially under Obama’s advertised agenda, quite well. If some of that infrastructure investment that Obama promises Port of New Orleans way comes, and some of that school rebuilding money finds itself winging itself to LA too, then two years from now he may be given a chance to stay on. Given his district I cannot imagine you’ll be able to tell his voting record these next two years from any random House Democrat.