There’s a lot of weird noise involving Gary Peters lately.
Besides Doug Jones, who is doomed, Peters seems to be the most at risk Dem.
Peters is essential to most paths to the Dems getting 50 seats and Trump did win Michigan in 2016 so I could see why Republicans would want to target it, but other than Republicans really wanting to win it, I have seen nothing to indicate that they have any real chance of winning this seat.
there’s a lot of time between now and November though.
an outside group is attacking Sen. Tillis here in NC with TV ads but I normally don’t see them since I tend to tape and fast forward through them.
More on the GOP challenger in Michigan, and a possible Trump-millstone effect: GOP rising star John James faces trouble at top of ticket
538 added a couple of Michigan senate polls to their database today.
Mich. , MAY 11-17, Peters 48%, James 43%, Peters +5
Mich. , MAY 1-5, Hodas & Associates*, Peters 48%, James 36%, Peters +12
Just gave to Steve Bullock’s U.S. Senate campaign in Montana. I liked what I saw of him as a presidential candidate, and there’s a real chance of flipping this seat.
Can anyone link to 538 overall senate map? I am having problems finding it.
They won’t release a senate model until much closer to the election.
In 2018 they did it early September.
Democrats looking good in southwestern Senate races: US election: Changing Southwest may bring Democrats a milestone win | CNN Politics
The most recent Arizona senate poll was absolutely brutal for incumbent R McSally.
U.S. Senate Ariz., MAY 9-11, 2020, OH Predictive Insights, Kelly 51%, McSally 38%, Kelly +13
Martha McSally losing bigly would be a win for the nation.
I would vote against her for her strong support of Trump, were I an Arizona voter. But my two regrets are that she has long been an advocate for retaining the A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft (of which she is a former pilot) in the U.S. Air Force inventory, and an opponent of requiring U.S. servicewomen to wear the abaya when off-base in Saudi Arabia, both issues on which I strongly agree with her.
Remember in the run up to the 2018 elections when the Republican racist dogwhistle was pretending that a migrant caravan was dangerous?
She deserves to lose.
Looks like the White House is getting worried about losing the Senate: The White House is getting *very* worried about the Senate majority | CNN Politics
Another AZ senate poll released today…
U.S. Senate, Ariz., MAY 18-22, 2020, HighGround Inc., Kelly 51%, McSally 41%, Kelly +10
When she was in the house McSally was a moderate Republican who cared mostly about defense and veteran issues. She didn’t endorse Trump in 2016 and called his Access Hollywood tape comments disgusting.
In her 2018 senate run she went all in on Trump and didn’t look back.
Another senate poll released today…
U.S. Senate, S.C., MAY 23-26, 2020, Civiqs, Harrison 42%, Graham 42%, EVEN
I’m slightly more inclined to believe that Civiqs sucks at polling than South Carolina is in play, but it’s an interesting result nonetheless.
U.S. Senate, Maine, MAY 13-18, 2020, Victory Geek*, Gideon 51%, Collins 42%, Gideon +9
FYI, 538 is my polling aggregate source.
I may be wrong but I think it’s not rare for challengers to lead early polls and lose in the end.
The point is- with Texas, Az, Georgia, Kentucky and yes- NC all being serious battleground states, the GOP is gonna have to spend $ everywhere, and double down on voter suppression.
Stacey Abrams almost won in Georgia.
This.
The Sunday before the Senate impeachment trial vote I left a voicemail at her office imploring her to vote what she knew was right rather than the party line, pointing out that yes, she’d likely lose the upcoming primary but at least could hold her head high.
Apparently she forgot that going all-Trump made her lose the 2018 election and the only reason she was a senator at all was because she was appointed by Governor Ducey to fill McCain’s seat. I expressed my disappointment in an email in February, she deigned to answer in May, about the time her poll numbers began slipping. You can follow the saga here, but upshot is she only defended a minor point of the email and left unanswered the main thrust.
I mulled over how temperate my reply should be for a while, but with Trump’s actions threatening protestors with the military and the shift in her campaign ads from anti-Corona “We’re in this together” to anti-Kelly “He’s in commie China’s pocket!!1!” I decided, fuck it:
I must say I am surprised you bothered early in May to reply to an email sent last February. However, I did not bury the lede. You responded to the fourth paragraph where I merely indicated that the discharges showed President Trump’s pettiness as a president, and a human being. Yes, he has the right to have any civil servant working for him he wishes. Had he been acting as a president should any time in the past three years I would cut him some slack, but I cannot recall two days straight where he was acting in support of any interest save Donald J. Trump.
Furthermore, your mealy-mouthed response, Rest assured that should legislation regarding these dismissals come before the Senate for a vote, I will consider it with your thoughts in mind. means nothing at all. You know good and well nothing at all regarding these dismissals or any others will be introduced between now and the election. So let me again ask the question I wish you had answered.
*That Trump did the things the House accused him of was not in question. Ample evidence and his own statements proved his guilt to anyone but the most partisan supporter of him. The only question to be answered is, does what he did rise to the level where the impeachment should lead to his removal from office. Apparently you, and a majority of the Senate agreed, voting to not call any witnesses nor examine any documents.
If withholding money Congress had appropriated – military aid to help a struggling ally withstand encroachment by a dictatorial regime – is not sufficient to warrant removal from office, what is? This goes double when you consider that – like sending Al Capone to prison for tax evasion – the impeachment charges were merely the easiest to prove in a long list of malfeasances.*
Events in the past three months have shown, President Trump is incapable of the simplest kind of leadership in a crisis – medical or racial. As a veteran, I am aghast that he would unleash the military against citizens of this country. Why have I not seen your voice in the chorus of retired military and former Secretaries of Defense condemning this proposal?
Since you pride yourself on plain speaking, let me give it to you with the bark off.
To hell with President Trump and all he stands for – feeding his ego and lining his pockets.
To hell with Trump’s allies who seek to divide this country – they destroy what we are all about.
To hell with Trump’s enablers who are willing to look the other way because he advances a more innocuous agenda of their own – regardless of how beneficial the advance is, the cost to our society is too great.Early in 2018 I changed my registration from Libertarian to Independent. In Arizona that means for the general primary (but not the presidential preference) I can request any party I choose. For this year I picked the Republican ballot. McSally has an opponent, Daniel McCarthy, but he looks even worse.
I’m thinking marking the ballot with the line through her goddam name instead of the right spot won’t even get noticed, but it will make me feel better.