Since this thread was bumped… a couple of promising senate polls released today…
Iowa, JUN 6-8, 2020, Civiqs, Greenfield 48%, Ernst 45%, Greenfield +3
Ky., MAY 21-24, 2020, RMG Research, McGrath 41%, McConnell 40%, McGrath +1
Both of these races are stretch goals for team D in November and are not required to control the chamber. It looks super unlikely even with these polls, but a boy can dream.
KY is interesting because the Dems have finally figured out that they were wasting their time in the rural areas. Sure, they can get a vote or two here or there, but nothing significant. Instead, they are taking to focusing on getting turn out where they have the advantage. It won them the Governor’s office, and Turtleboy is largely reviled, at home and nationally. Would love to see him get flushed
KY always breaks right, so McGrath +1 means a big win for Mitch. Also, McGrath is the classic “electable centrist” targeting those mythic “swing voters” by carefully saying nothing at all. That hasn’t stopped McConnell from painting her as the leftest lefty who ever lefted, so in the end she appeals to absolutely nobody and becomes a “not Mitch” vote, which ought to be enough but isn’t.
That’s why both of our big papers in the state have endorsed Charles Booker, her far more progressive, far more interesting primary challenger. He has surged hard in the last few weeks and with the endorsements I think he might pull it off. Can he beat Mitch? I think he could, if his momentum carries and he makes a national splash, which he very well could. Either way, I know Amy can’t beat Mitch, and I’d much rather watch Booker try.
And in four days his prediction for President has shifted rather dramatically. He’s now saying:
Biden 334 - Trump 204
The Senate and House predictions are about the same but that is a really huge swing in a short period of time.
A new Des Moines Register poll (which Larry Sabato of Crystal Ball calls Iowa’s "gold standard poll) has Joni Ernst trailing by three points. I did not see that one coming. Like with Montana, this is a sudden and unexpected ray of hope.
From what I’ve seen:
The closest Senate races for seats currently held by a Republican are, in order of current polls starting with most in favor of the Republican, are:
Iowa (Ernst-R vs. Greenfield-D)
Montana (Daines-R vs. Bullock-D)
North Carolina (Tillis-R vs. Cunningham-D)
Colorado (Gardner-R vs. Hickenlooper-D, probably – primary isn’t until June 30)
Maine (Collins-R vs. Gideon-D, probably – primary isn’t until July 14)
Arizona (McSally-R vs. Kelly-D)
The one close Senate race for a seat currently held by a Democrat (though the Dem is currently favored) is:
Michigan (Peters-D vs. James-R)
The one Senate race for a seat currently held by a Democrat, but quite likely to switch to Republican, is:
Alabama (Jones-D vs. Tuberville, probably – runoff primary isn’t until July 14)
Currently, the Senate is 53-47. If Jones loses but Peters wins (54-46 with no other changes), and the races poll in the order above, the “tipping point” race is North Carolina (IF Biden wins). If the Dems win North Carolina, they hold the Senate 50-50.
(If Trump wins, the “tipping point” race is Montana – Dems must win that, too, to make it 51-49.)
(If James wins in Michigan, the Dems must win Montana as well as North Carolina, to make it 50-50 – AND also Iowa, if they needed to make it 51-49 because Biden lost).
Michigan senate polls released in June:
U.S. Senate, Mich., MAY 31-JUN 7, 2020, Kiaer Research, Peters 48%, James 32%, Peters +16
U.S. Senate, Mich., MAY 30-JUN 3, 2020, EPIC-MRA, Peters 51%, James 36%, Peters +15
U.S. Senate, Mich., MAY 29-30, 2020, Public Policy Polling*, Peters 48%, James 39%, Peters +9
It’s seeming less and less like that Michigan seat is in play although there are 142 days until E-day so things could change.
Awesome!
If you like your hope to have a basis in sound understanding of what the poll actually means, it is not. The margin of error for that poll is 3.8%. Then there is understanding the margin of error for the difference between two candidates, which is not the same thing.
So the margin of error for the difference between the candidates in that poll is about ±7.6%. That is before we even get to the error that is introduced by attempting to estimate likely voters.
Greenfield and Ernst have been running neck and neck. That poll shows them continuing to run neck and neck. It really only shows Greenfield taking a lead in the minds of the media who routinely demonstrate ignorance when reporting on polls.
That’s true. In my list of six races, the first two (Iowa and Montana) are basically polling even; the next two (North Carolina and Colorado) are basically polling with a real, but small and fragile, Dem lead; and the last two (Maine and Arizona) are polling with a real, solid, and sizable (though far from irreversible) Dem lead.
(I didn’t put Colorado in the “solid lead” category, despite solid polling a month ago, because Hickenlooper has hit a bit of a rough patch in recent days — a few minor ethics violations — and because apparently there’s a bit of a Bernie Bros thing going on with his primary opponent. Might not be a big deal, but I’d rather err on the side of caution, at least until several new high-quality polls are conducted there).
It also depends on how you define hope. Running even or even a little behind for an Iowa senate race is good enough for me at this point.
Looking at longer-term tends, I see that the North Carolina polling does indeed suggest a small, fragile Dem lead — BUT the lead hasn’t grown, even as the overall climate for Dems has improved, so I’d be cautious for now and put this in the same “too close to call” category as Iowa and Montana.
(Montana has shown more movement toward Dems, but I’d wait for better polling before upgrading it).
To balance the stasis in North Carolina, there has been more movement in Arizona than I’d realized — a steady trend in favor of Democrat Mark Kelly. Soon, I might consider this simply an uncompetitive race — think of it as making up for the Alabama loss, to keep the math simple. 
Living in NC a Tillis loss here will be a big surprise to me. Same as a Trump loss here but Biden might squeak out a win just as Obama did in 2008. Romney won here in 2012.
While it’s true that a 3-point lead in a poll with a 3.7% margin of error doesn’t mean much, it’s still definitely better than being 3 points behind. And even the latter can fairly be described as a “ray of hope”.
And yeah, Alabama’s officially toast, since both of the Republicans in the run-off have a solid and consistent track record of not being Roy Moore. But hey, we were pretty much expecting that.
You can tell from McSally’s ads. In mid-May they were COVID-related, “We’re in this together.” The last week or so they’ve switched to, “Mark Kelly is in commie-China’s pocket!!1!” based on his involvement a Chinese “high technology firm” wanting to start Arizona operations. Looking into it, I found out it was going to offer rich people high-altitude balloon rides.
It’s received several tax breaks with nothing to show for it so far, but that’s pretty much SOP for Arizona. McSally has had via mutual funds investments in Chinese companies, including the balloon one, but her office says she divested them last year.
GOP candidates balance pros, cons of running with Trump: GOP candidates balance pros, cons of running with Trump
Five senate polls covering four races released today (two MI)…
U.S. Senate, Ariz., JUN 13-15, 2020, Civiqs, Kelly 51%, McSally 42%, Kelly +9
U.S. Senate, Mich., JUN 12-15, 2020, Marketing Resource Group (MRG), Peters 36%, James 30%, Peters +6
U.S. Senate, Ga., JUN 12-13, 2020, Public Policy Polling*, Ossoff 45%, Perdue 44%, Ossoff +1
U.S. Senate, N.M., JUN 12-13, 2020, Public Policy Polling, Lujan 48%, Ronchetti 34%, Lujan +14
U.S. Senate, Mich., JUN 9-12, 2020, TIPP, Peters 47%, James 35%, Peters +12
Good news across the board. Maybe a little too good to be believed in the case of Georgia.
Cool, thanks. Yeah, let’s see more polls before getting excited about Georgia.
A+ rated Siena College/The New York Times Upshot released a bunch of swing state polling today that included three senate races.
U.S. Senate, N.C., JUN 8-18, 2020, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, Cunningham 42%, Tillis 39%, Cunningham +3
U.S. Senate, Mich., JUN 8-17, 2020, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, Peters 41%, James 31%, Peters +10
U.S. Senate, Ariz., JUN 8-16, 2020, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, Kelly 47%, McSally 38%, Kelly +9