The main point of the Drake equation is that no matter how pessimistic you want to be in plugging in variables to that equation you will still come up with intelligent life having to exist somewhere else in the universe. Be it 1 or 100,000 societies the idea is that we are not alone.
Actually that is not the case. Assuming a spacefaring race could travel at 99.9999+% light speed they would not have to be long lived at all to make a 2+ million light year jaunt. Time slows down for those moving near light speed (or any speed but the effect is only pronounced close to light speed). Let’s say our hypothetical aliens can travel at 0.9999999999999999999999951 light speed. If they managed this the flight time for those on board the space ship from Andromeda to us would be 3.5 minutes. Of course that would see 2.1+ million years pass on their home planet in Andromeda but growing old isn’t a problem for the space travelers. (SOURCE: http://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/ohmygodpart.html ).
Yes there is. I saw it on TV, in a nature documentary involving duck and a pig. Planet X is the only remaining source of Illudium Phosdex, the Shaving Cream Atom.
My apologies for taking a single phrase out of a well-argued post.
Nevertheless, it occurs to me that a new ‘popular music combo’ might well find inspiration for their name in ‘asteroids don’t care who sees them’!
Personally I believe there is almost certainly intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. So why haven’t we seen it, ask the cynics. To which I would say, why on Earth (no pun intended) would intelligent life bother to travel millions of light years to visit an ordinary little planet like ours?
There seems to be a remarkable arrogance on the part of the human race, thinking that we are somehow so important that alien civilizations would flock to meet us. Sorry, but I don’t believe it’s true. As slipster pointed out, space is unimaginably huge. Even just our galaxy is pretty darn big, and it in itself is just an unremarkable one of many scattered throughout space. My view is that there are countless alien lifeforms, but they are so widely scattered that they are unlikely ever to be aware of each others’ existence.
I’ve actually had people say to me in all seriousness, “But the other planets are either too hot or too cold - there can’t be life on them” - like our solar system is the only place worth thinking about, and all those other stars in our sky are just a decorative background put there for our benefit.
You really have to look at the bigger picture. Why should we be the only intelligent life. So we haven’t found any - well, that’s like taking a grain of sand from the Sahara and concluding that there’s no life on Earth.
Take two different assumptions–intelligent life is extremely common in the universe ir it is exceedingly rare. Either way you can speculte that someone (something) would take an interest in us.
If life is common I do not think it is unreasonable to assume that a few of those species would be curious in studying us. Life is exceedingly common here on earth and there are all sorts of people who study what’s under your feet as a lifelong pursuit. If there are a jillion (scientific term ) species out in the Universe I think it is a safe bet that at least some of them would take an interest in following our development.
If life is uncommon…very uncommon…then even more reason to watch something so rare as we would be.
I’ll grant both assumptions may be wrong but if I were a betting man I’d feel safe in laying money on those possibilities.
Let’s give them a year to accelerate and a year to decelerate (just a guess but I think that would be more than manageable…only considering squishing factors…based upon some previous posts I have seen). Heck…give them five years on either side…still doable.
Well the number can equally be 0.000001 or 100,000 my point being that the so long as no numbers are zero you’ll get a non zero result. Big deal. We don’t know enough about the factors to make reasonable guesses to make it valuable. Its a rule of thumb with no thumbs to check it against.
Someone here has a great quote from Carl Sagan about no signs of help coming and we’re on our own. Good thing too, I hate making mistakes in front of others.
Earth is a very rich biosphere, and I find it hard to believe that such rich biospheres are common in the Galaxy.
Look at the candidate stars in our local region-
there are only ten or twenty out of two thousand that even have a chance of producing a long-lived, stable Earth-type planet- all the rest are too small, or too young, or too irregular-
then you have to have a planet in the correct position, and perhaps a gas giant to sweep up the dinosaur-killer asteroids-
Basically what I am saying is, Earth-type worlds are quite rare, and I would expect any interstellar civilisation would have catalogued them all long ago.
We are not an insignificant planet, but an example of a very rare phenomenon, and the alien biologists and documentary-makers should be here already, and should have been here for millions of years.
I’m sorry, but looking at the evidence, I don’t think they are.
Sunlike stars aren’t rare at all. The nearest single G star to the Sun (tau ceti) is about 10 ly away, and if we take that to be a typical spacing between Gs, then there’s still room for [sagan]billions and billions[/sagan] of them in our Galaxy. Earthlike planets, it’s harder to say, since we’ve never detected any outside our solar system (and we wouldn’t have expected to detect any yet, with current technology), but if other solar systems are as dense as ours, there’s almost guaranteed to be a planet in the “Goldilocks Zone”.
But what makes you say that Earth has a rich biosphere? Of all the life-bearing planets we know of, Earth’s biosphere is the poorest. Fact is, we have absolutely no basis for comparison whatsoever, on that point.
If there are aliens here they will definitely have brought their staffs. Aliens go nowhere without them, just like us. As for the problem of getting to other planets by travelling near the speed of light, all we have to do is merely go into warp drive, which takes place in subspace, so there are no rules about the old speed of light thing. At maximum warp using the core of the Federation Starship Voyager, we could make pretty good time at least in our own quadrant. We could also develop slipstream drive and just have B’Lana modify the engines. Forget wormholes, as they are too unsteady and unpredictable, and also you would be crushed to a pulp if you even got near one.
Simply reversing the polarity on any drive system will get us there, as this always happens on DOCTOR WHO as a solution, and I just heard it this morning on a VOYAGER episode. The minute Janeway, I think it was, ordered the reversing of the polarities, they were off and running and even foiled the insane man who was trying to take them to the Borgue.
Yes, Tau Ceti is on my list, and so would Alpha Centauri be if it were not double. Many stars that seem sun-like are low in metals, or are slightly irregular, or have eccentric gas giants or red or brown dwarfs that make the orbits of Earthlike planets unlikely. Like I say, only 1 star in 100 in the locality of our sun is really suitable for stable earthlike planets,
which means, as you say, perhaps two billion suitable stars in the whole galaxy. Knock out all the stars in the centre of the galaxy where radiation might be too harsh and you have a billion.
The number gets less and less all the time.
Unfortunately that does not seem to be true, as the migration of gas giants from the outer system to the inner sweep the earth-type planets away- this seems to happen alot.
The Earth has had life for 3-4 billion years, and a rich land ecology for 300 million years - -
so 1 in ten planets we discover could be expected to have land ecologies.
But-
If life can continue on Earth for another billion years (which is likely) this will make the odds higher of finding a rich ecology elsewhere.
So maybe I am slightly pessimistic. I am not a Rare Earth believer, but they are not common, either IMHO,
This little debate in GQ is a good example why the existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life, their ability to perform interstellar travel, and the possibility of them visiting our little home and studying our species [Steve Irwin]Krikey! lookit this earthling! Ee’s starin’ right into our mind-control beam! Oi’m gonna stick me finger in 'ees bum![/Steve Irwin] still remain the big question that I have decided not to make up my mind about.
That said, I have decided that Zechariah Sitchin and David Icke are raving loons. I also think that after spending all the time and resources necessary to travel to our little planet I would have more pressing priorities than crop-circle graffiti.
slipster, I have a suspicion we’ve had the same astronomy professor…
anyway, total hijack. This afternoon, at lunch, I was explaining to the paidhi girl (6 years old) about how far the sun was from the Earth. Talked about the light taking 8 minutes to reach the earth. Then I remembered reading this, in this thread, and gave her the story of the baseball on the pitchers mound being the sun, etc. And told her the nearest star would be in, say, Utah.
She gave this serious consideration for a few minutes. “Okay,” she says, with an air of one thinking deep thoughts. “But would the baseball roll downhill?”
We told her it would. Since it was on the pitcher’s mound.
