UK General Election 2015 predictions

UKIP have taken a dip recently, too. Still a relevant minority, but increased publicity has worn away at some of the ‘soft’ support.

Heh, she’s standing for MP in my constituency.

Yes - a little actual scrutiny of minority parties can take a lot of the shine off.

Im not yet sure that it’s actual scrutiny that’s hurting UKIP, though it may well be in part. I think as people get closer to the general election they do tend to drift back to traditional parties. I can easily imagine a situation where UKIP do poorly in the GE, their demise is predicted, then once again becoming major factors in local and European elections in years ahead. That is how protest parties often fare.

People will always drift back a little, true, but over the last 6 months, and more so recently, there’s been a steady drip of stories that reflect badly on UKIP. They’re less to do with their policies, which are not what UKIP are fundamentally about, and more to do with the mask slipping as more and more candidates and mid-level functionaries are outed as nutbars and out-and-out racists. “I don’t like negroes” is not, in 2015, a sentiment that many people want to endorse. (Even if they’re OK with a blander formulation such as “our traditional way of life is under threat”.) UKIP seemed to be reaching beyond it’s core vote of scared old white men, but too many “unguarded moments” are choking that growth off.

Also, with only 70 days to go until the election, if it were simply protest, I think they’d be considerably smaller by now.

Gordon Bennett!

U.K. Dopers will find this amusing: Kirsty for Kensington. :slight_smile:

This is a problem UKIP has had to contend with for years. UKIP were potrayed as racist nutjobs(which some of them undoubtedly are) long before last years local and European elections. Elections which saw them do remarkably well. In the post mortem of last years elections saw many politicians and media commentators openly admit the ridiculing and snearing at UKIP had backfired. Sure, we may be seeing a drip drip effect. The umpteenth racist comment from yet another promement UKIP’er may be the one that broke the camels back. But it’s worth pointing out that such comments from UKIP are not new.

I have just googled *UKIP, racist *and 2010. I chose 2010 randomly. The link below came up. Im sure if you google UKIP, racist and any year from the past decade many similar results would show.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/england/8609891.stm

An article from the Spectator that could hardly be closer to what I have been posting on Scottish matters for the last six months. Bullet point after bullet point.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9453802/why-an-snp-surge-at-westminster-could-mean-the-end-of-britain/

Sometimes I think that the English based Unionist parties are really working towards alienating their shrinking Scottish base.

Following the referendum in September there has been a sea change in attitude up here with an increase in petty nationalism (which I despise- I am pro-devolution and reluctantly pro-independence without being in the least nationalistic- flying the Saltire or Union Flag would be the last thing I would do.)

So the coalition chooses to publicise their plan to place the Union Flag on all “British” funded projects. This will be seen by many in Scotland as a Unionist anti-SNP gesture. It will only bolster the anti-Westminster vote.

And this

Further discussion about a Grand Coalition between Labour and the Tories which would be the death knell for the Labour Party in Scotland.

Isn’t the goal to show just how much Scotland benefits from being in the UK? It’s like, you’re actually seeing the benefits it brings you with the flag…“Oh, yea, this project exists because the government funded it.”, that sort of thing.

There is a difference between intention and effect. For many people here the display of the union Flag is a sign of Unionism and England rather than an easily accepted ‘national’ symbol. This is not just for the highly nationalistic, but also for a swathe of emotional non-political nationalists.

The Union Flag is rare north of the border except on Government and Royal buildings and is seen as a forced replacement for the Saltire.

Now, I. As an internationalist, think this is over the top, but it is the case- seeing a Union Flag is quite surprising here, yet the Saltire is everywhere.

Making a political issue of it is likely to have the opposite effect intended.

The desired effect is to make people think “Look what Britain has done for the people of Scotland,” but the more likely unconscious effect will be “Look how Westminster is using our oil money to bribe us to love Unionism.”

Cite for the non-Nats? Remember that 55% of Scots voted for the Union.

Cite?

Well, I suppose it makes a change from Labour bribing voters with work in the shipyards.

Personal observation of the press, social media, looking at buildings with flags, opinion polls, projections of Scottish MPs at Westminster, SNP membership, and so on.

I just think that the Unionist parties at Westminster have lost the plot on broad Scottish sensibilities.

And whenever Rangers play. Or get together. Or just exist.

I believe we called the kingdoms.

You don’t half write some utter shite.

The/them.

I can’t type for shit.

So what are you suggesting? That the union is so unpopular we should never display the flag?
That the national government should fund as many projects as possible in Scotland, but hide any involvement while doing so, because they’re so hated?