UK General Election May 2015 (Population Share Version)

Politics & Elections
1

With the election now underway, and new topics cropping up every day, I thought it might be worth trying another general General Election thread.

Given the documented tendency for these threads to become perhaps a touch overly focused on the SNP, I’m proposing not that we ignore this issue entirely (it is a factor in the election, after all) but that we stick to a population rather than geographical share model - if c. 8.5% of posts touch on the issues of Scotland, the SNP threat to Labour and the likely influence of a prospective Labour/SNP coalition on English voting intentions, I think the topic will be well served.*

In the meantime, there are other issues nearly as important we might want to discuss:

[ul]
[li]Major issues and where the parties stand on them (e.g. the economy and fiscal policy);[/li][li]Policy announcements and news events (e.g. business leaders’ letter backing the Conservatives, or Labour’s anti zero-hours contract policy);[/li][li]General trends in polling (e.g. the increasing share taken by both major parties);[/li][li]Pointing and laughing at the Liberal Democrats (it would take a heart of stone, etc.);[/li][li]The TV debate and what influence, if any, it might/will/does have (Don’t feel you have to watch it though).[/li][li]Anything else (within reason, though, eh?)[/li][/ul]

*NB This specific figure is a joke. I’m not literally going to calculate any topic’s share of the debate, and nor should anyone else because holy fuck, come on. Equally, nor should anyone feel they have to. Let the general principle of proportionality guide you. And this one: if at any point you find you are posting about 19th century US Presidents instead of the UK general election, you are posting in the wrong thread.

2

The Tories, and Cameron, in particular, are keen to make this election about Cameron vs Miliband. Certainly, Dave tends to win more admiration for his personal qualities than Ed. But I’m wondering if that may backfire, due to a combination of:

Dislike of playing the man, not the ball;
The springboard of low expectations;
Miliband actually being more charismatic and human than the media (who are scrupulously neutral in these matters) tend to present him.

Exhibit A for the last of these is this interview Miliband did with Absolute Radio, in which he comes across as warm, funny, human, enthusiastic and spirited. His throwaway line about Cameron’s professed love for hot curries (“well, that just goes to show how tough he is”) in particular I thought was very nicely done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14Wy4Vh-4bM

More performances like this or his interview with Paxman, especially in tonight’s 7 way debate, and the apparent weakness the Tories are attacking may well fade away.

3

I’m not a big Miliband fan, although I’ll take Ed over David. Yes, Ed looks and sounds a bit goofy but that wouldn’t really matter if Labour actually had a strong platform to run on, which is something they’ve been very slow to build. It’s really only now that we’re starting to see some serious daylight between the two parties policy-wise in their messaging.

Personally I’m still likely to vote Green or Lib Dem - I’m in a very safe Labour constituency (majority of about 5,800) and while my MP appears to be a fairly harmless backbencher (and AFAICT largely scandal-free apart from some idiocy over Worcestershire sauce) I’d like him to feel a little less safe.

4

Oh yeah, I’d far rather people were talking about policies and fundamental ideals but we seem to have kicked off with an exchange of personalities - and I think it may not work on its own terms.

Two Labour policies that I think do show daylight, and which in the light of the Green/SNP surge and other anecdotal evidence (like the response to Michael Sheen’s speech on the NHS) might well demonstrate a willingness to take a stand are:

Ending of bedroom tax
Ending of fees for employment tribunals.

The latter in particular highlights a very clear workers/bosses dividing line.

5

Re: voting intentions, I am broadly in line with Gyrate. I live in Chuka Ummuna’s seat, and he’ll win it fairly handily, but I am keen to give him a bit of a bloody nose and reduce his majority a bit. This probably means voting Green to be honest.

I guess we’re going to see how all this plays out but, at the moment, I think Labour’s tactics of keeping their powder dry on policy initiatives and releasing them around now - so time for people to understand them before putting a cross in the box - is reasonably sound. At the moment, they’re getting a decent ride. I strongly expect that the tide will turn from the majority of the media close to the poll though - the right wing press in particular will do everything possible to run Labour down in the last 2 weeks of the campaign. How they ride that out is likely to be important.

No one’s getting a majority though, I think, barring any major changes, so all that press talk will likely just be putting Cameron at the head of another coalition.

The news yesterday that Clegg looks like he may well lose his seat is delicious. That 5 years worth of semi-power could well consign him and many of his party to oblivion.

6

Yes, the LibDems sold their soul to join a coalition with the devil, and the only concession I can remember them getting apart from something to put on their CVs was that half-arsed AV referendum that destroyed any chance of having a serious discussion about PR for another 20 years. College tuition, taxes, benefits…every LibDem pledge went right out the window in return for the right to be the Tories’ whipping boys.

Frankly, apart from anti-Tory/anti-Labour strategic voting I can’t see any reason to vote LibDem at all, since their promises apparently aren’t worth squat.

7

Indeed. It was a complete failure to understand why people voted for them: sure, party activists thought nothing was more important than electoral reform, but voters cared about tuition fees, benefits and of course civil liberties. They’ve taken a bit of a kicking under this government, despite the best efforts of Grieve, and the Lib Dems were nowhere to be seen.

This inability to realise why people vote is the reason I struggle to vote Green. I too live in a solid Labour seat, and if I thought a Green vote would drag them leftward I would do it. But I fear they might respond by trying to be greener and offering e.g. anti-nuclear power, anti-animal testing or anti-GMO policies to win Green voters back. And I don’t want that at all.

8

Just read a really good blogon the debates, and the potential upsides and downsides for Miliband. Especially good as the author is a Tory who’s frequently pretty vicious about Miliband on Twitter, but is very fair and insightful here:

9

Ignoring which minor parties hold how many seats, how do you expect Britain to be governed following the election with

A/ Labour more seats than Conservatives
B/ Conservatives more seats than Labour

And

1/ Enough potential votes for a majority programme of government
2/ Not enough potential votes for a majority programme of government

What do you see the Government being on May 8th and each week thereafter.

This is asked because no-one seems keen to discuss the ramifications of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

My prediction is that there will be a long period of minimal government of one colour or the other with a completely new experience for UK politics. If people think the formation of the coalition was an exciting time, they ain’t seen nothing yet.

10

I think there are more natural political allies on the Labour side of the equation, so unless the Conservatives increase their current number to the extent that they can cross the line with support from the DUP and UKIP I think they’re going to struggle to form a government. Certainly the LibDems are unlikely to side with them again, and the Greens and SNP sure as hell won’t.

Somewhat more likely, Labour will get enough to get Ed into Number 10 with support - but not necessarily in the form of a coalition - from the LibDems, Greens and (at particular arms’ length) the SNP. This will be a weak government with endless deals being made to try to keep the minority parties happy without alienating the Labour base, something which I’m not convinced Ed is capable of sustaining over five years. That said, a fragile government will keep him safe from any internal power struggles as no one will want to upset things too much.

And I’m not a fan of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, but as it sustains weak governments it’s unlikely that we’ll see it go any time soon.

11

Simply in terms of numbers, I too don’t see much prospect of Conservative led group - they and the Lib Dems are on course to lose seats. Polls do seem to be drifting towards both main parties so it could be that either/both Labour and Conservative are much more substantial minorities than currently expected - but I don’t see a majority in play for either as yet. Not least because most small party --> big party gains would be made from potential allies.

With a minority Labour government, I’d expect a fairly narrow legislative programme, initially weighted towards some fairly populist moves - e.g. scrapping the bedroom tax - that can’t be opposed without looking bad. However, there’d be an internal appetite to pass something significant on the scale of an interim budget or flagship health/education/housing bill to show that this was a government that could get stuff done. That would mean a lot of small-c coalition horse-trading - and even cross-bench deals aimed at MPs with reduced majorities.

How good Miliband would be at managing that process remains to be seen. As you say, FTPA means that there won’t easily be a new election but if a government got bogged down, or pissed off its allies too much, there could be a no-confidence vote.

It would be ballsy, and interesting, for a minority government to call a snap vote of no confidence as a way of cementing its right to govern - daring the opposition parties to be the ones responsible for putting everyone through another campaign. (“The question before the House is, do you respect the people of Britain?”) Given the two-phase nature of the FTPA provisions it might be something they only scrape through second time round, but once they had a vote of confidence they would feel a little steadier. I doubt this would happen though.

12

Supposing both Labour and Tories have a reasonable claim to form a government, we need took at the possibilities.

On May 8th Cameron will still be PM and the Coalition Government will still exist. In order to force them out of Government the Labour Party will have to do something it has never been good at (see Brown in 2010) which is compromise with other parties. Under the new provisions of the FTPA so long as the coalition is not massively defeated, they remain the Government until Parliament resumes on 18th May. No Queens Speech need be delivered for some further weeks.

Cameron could argue that stability is more important than certainty and continue to govern until a fortnight after any vote of no confidence, allowing the Coalition to continue as the Government until at least the middle of June. Should it survive until late July, Parliament may be ready to go away for the summer.

I can see months of stalemate with no successful vote of no confidence.

13

Well the Conservatives have done a good job pushing the “if you ally with the SNP you hate Great Britain” message which will make any talks with the SNP by anyone (PC aside) a bit trickier. One hopes that this is a contigency Labour has already considered; if they haven’t, they’re too incompetent to be in office.

14

[QUOTE=Gyrate;18257807 One hopes that this is a contigency Labour has already considered; if they haven’t, they’re too incompetent to be in office.[/QUOTE]

As far as I can tell the mood music between Labour and the SNP is very much based on confidence and supply rather than anything more formal. I don’t there’s any way either could go any further than that: SNP have used a lot of “Red Tories” rhetoric that their more, err, bright-eyed voters have lapped up, and Labour can’t afford the subsequent mauling they’d get down South.

15

Particularly as Mr. Cameron, with that breathtaking cluelessness which is his trademark, declared last year that after this election the Tories would no longer ally with the LibDems.
Ditching one’s allies is a time-honoured move, but giving them notice is telling one’s trusty native guides a few weeks before they won’t be paid after exiting the jungle.

Those are the only policies that would induce me to support Labour.

[ Have they dropped the New yet ? ]

16

Do you have a link for this? Im not saying you are wrong but I suspect Cameron didn’t say this exactly.

17

Anyone else watching the debate? Fuck me but they’re a useless shower.

18

Googling, I can only find two times from last year, both more ‘We have learnt’ than outright: but I remember it well enough: the Libs looked pretty jaundiced, and I thought it was later than these, maybe early autumn.

David Cameron is preparing to fight the next general election on a clear promise to the British people not to form a second coalition government even if he falls short of a Commons majority, The Telegraph has learnt.

Telegraph 24/02/14

David Cameron has privately signalled he is ready to form a minority government if the Conservatives fall short of a Commons majority in next year’s election, the Standard has learned.*

Evening Standard 17/07/14

In their comment the Standard understated it:

*The Prime Minister’s indication that he would, if he found himself without a clear majority after the next election, try to govern without a Coalition, marks a new turn in the already strained relationship with the Liberal Democrats. *
From the first link, Mr. Clegg stood humbly, cap in hand, outside the back-doors of the main parties, saying, ‘I’ll do anything, me.’:
*Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, has publicly said that he wants to remain in power after the election by striking a coalition deal with either of the larger parties. *
By now, old Cameron has cannily weaseled into another position:

*David Cameron has refused to discuss possible coalition deals his party might enter into after the general election, the day after the Labour leader was forced to contradict Conservative party warnings and rule out a formal coalition with the Scottish National party.

Speaking on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, the prime minister said that if his party fell short of a majority, “you can ask me the next day what I’ll do about it”.*

…
*
Both Cameron and the chancellor, George Osborne, have refused to rule out forming a coalition with Ukip after the election, saying they would not comment on any coalition deals.

The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, has said his party would prop up a minority Conservative government if Cameron agreed to hold a referendum in 2015 on Britain’s membership of the European Union. *

…
“I love serving my constituents, I love politics, I love public service, it’s what I care about. It’s a vocation for me. In the unhappy event I’m not prime minister on 8 May, the people of West Oxfordshire, I hope, will stick with me and I’ll stick with them.”
Guardian 17/03/15
I hope they can find a special dedicated single mission as a sinecure for the rest of his life. Probably personally eradicating all encryption from the internet wherever it may be. To protect us all.

19

Yes, gods help me. Sturgeon is doing well. Miliband is struggling to be both above the other leaders and separate from Cameron. Cameron ditto is not standing out as a cut above.

Farage is plumbing the depths.

20

Don’t just go with my opinion though. ComRes opinion poll:

@May2015NS: ComRes/ITV poll—BEST MINUS WORST SO FAR

Sturgeon +12%
Miliband +11%
Clegg +3%
Cameron +2%
Farage +2%
Bennett -14%
Wood -16%