Peter Kellner on Andrew Marr this morning was supporting the view that there is a strong possibility that the SNP and maybe Ulster Unionists might be needed to maintain a Miliband government.
Are not the Unionists more likely to join with the Tories?
Sturgeon admits support for or coalition with Labour is possible.
IIRC the Ulster Unionists helped Callaghan stay in power in the late seventies. Kellner did suggest that they might help Labour next year.
Interesting link, but I think this one is more relevant to your point: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/sturgeon-won-t-rule-out-snp-and-labour-coalition-1-3599026 
From that it looks like the SNP are smart enough to know siding with the Tories is a electoral suicide. And while they’re not ruling out a coalition I think just a support agreement is more likely. A formal coalition is likely to highlight the Scottish MPs voting for English measures issue and it gives the opposition too easy a target.
Plus Labour don’t seem particularly keen on a coalition because they don’t want to compromise their plans.
As for the Labour leadership – they don’t strike me as having the balls to actually get rid of Miliband. Any viable replacements seem to have ruled themselves out, so I’m not sure what all the griping is going to do short of allowing a bunch of people to say ‘I told you so’ after the election. Alternatively it may provide a way for Miliband to actually show some leadership, which may turn things around.
Although interestingly if you read what Alan Johnson says in the Sunday Express he manages to be very clear about not wanting the job without explicitly saying he wouldn’t actually take it. There’s nothing in there that would prevent him having a ‘for the good of the party’ moment if Miliband stood down. (EXCLUSIVE: Labour leadership challenge would be 'political suicide' | UK | News | Express.co.uk)
If Labour believe at all in themselves and their politics then they should be desperate to get in ahead of the Tories, precisely because the Tories will carry on doing what they’re doing. That said, I’m sure a lot of MPs are thinking along these lines.
Lord Ashcroft’s marginal polling is apparently suggesting that UKIP will do enough damage to the Tory vote to give Labour the edge in 38 seats - well ahead of the 21 net Tory–> Labour swings needed to give Labour the most seats. So maybe the Conservatives are going to struggle to get the seats they need. But it’s not a huge lead, and there are other factors.
The fact that Electoral calculus now even are predicting Labour being short of a majority this far out is a bad bad sign for Labour, opposition governments really need a good lead at this point if they are to have any hope of a majority. The question now for me is whether Labour can stay ahead in enough marginals to just about win more seats than the Torys. It really is a 50/50 toss up at the moment.
The polls keep getting worse for Labour. Ashcroft on Twitter announcing his latest poll: CON 32%, LAB 29%, UKIP 14%, LDEM 9%, the worst set of results for Labour since 2010. Given we have news today that unemployment has fallen again and wages have finally started to rise faster than inflation, removing a big plank of Miliband’s campaign with the “cost of living crisis”, how are Labour going to claw their way back?
Meanwhile, opening prices on BetFair for the GE seem to be suggesting that there will be no practical way for any party to obtain a majority.
Still time for a coup. I quite fancy a Miliband/Cable coalition.
No Overall majority is the shortest price its ever been at this stage of an election cycle. The Torys to win most seats are good value at 2.18 (I backed them at 2.22 last week , I expect them to be around 1.75 on the night before the election).
Salmond has said that the price for a confidence and supply agreement with Labour would likely be an agreement to a further referendum being held at the behest of Holyrood!
Fuck Alex Salmond. So much for a “once in a generation decision”…
I think that is the type of reaction Labour (or the Tories) will be up against if they go into any formal or informal coalition with the SNP. I can barely imagine a bigger turn off for many English voters than some sort of accomodation with the SNP in return for some Labour political advantage at Westminster. Any Party will seriously have to play hardball with the SNP in order to prevent a huge English electoral backlash against their own Party in the years ahead.
Note that he is not demanding an immediate new referendum, just that any decision on it should be made by the Scottish people alone through their parliament rather than having to go (cap in hand) to Westminster to get permission. He wants an undertaking that future decisions on referenda on the future of Scotland should be the sole concern of the Scottish Parliament and People.
If Scotland continues to elect Nationalist Governments with a manifesto commitment to Independence, how can any real democrat deny that the People and that Government the right to ballot for what they have voted for? It seems simple democracy to me.
Another million pounds for the SNP to ensure it remains the Government of Scotland:
and that to be spread over fewer than sixty constituencies. Add to that the massive income from the quadrupling of SNP membership, that is going to make life difficult for Labour.
Well I am neither, and I wouldn’t touch the smug fuck with a shitty stick.
That’s rich coming from you - who showed no regard whatsoever for a result that, had it gone the other way, would have been the “settled will of the Scottish people”.
Like fuck we are going give the SNP the right to call a referendum whenever they think everything is lining up nicely for them to have a chance. The future of the Union requires the input of the Union and not rely on a bunch of traitors to call the shots.
You are a massive optimist/fantasist if you think that is even remotely possible.
So you do not agree that nations have a right to self-determination? If the Scottish electorate chooses a government who include Independence in its manifesto and opinion polls show (as they do currently) that there is a majority for Independence, then they should not have that will thwarted by another government.
Current opinion polls show 52-60% majority for independence and 75% plus for Devo max or home rule.
It is not over yet. Let us see how the promises made before the referendum are carried out. If the vow is well met to a level that satisfies the people of Scotland, then Independence should slip off the agenda.
Let us see how desperate a potential government is to gain power. It could even be the SNP agreeing a confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories!