A new opinion poll by Survation for the Daily Record has given the SNP record leads in both Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions, as trust in Westminster politicians has evaporated.
The poll put support for the SNP for the coming Westminster election at 45.8 per cent, compared to 23.9 per cent support for Labour – a 21.9 per cent lead over Labour, and the largest SNP lead in Westminster voting intentions that Survation has ever recorded.
The same poll also put support for the SNP for Holyrood at 50 per cent in the constituency vote and 40.6 per cent in the regional vote, while support for Labour stands at 23 per cent in the constituency vote and 20.3 per cent in the regional vote. This finding of a 27 per cent lead in the constituency vote and a 20.3 per cent lead in the regional vote are also the largest leads in Holyrood voting intentions that Survation has ever recorded.
According to the Weber Shandwick scotlandvotes.com model, these results would see Labour lose all of their remaining constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament. Overall, the Scottish Parliament would be comprise 70 SNP MSPs (including 2 list MSPs), 26 Labour (all list MSPs), 16 Tories (13 list), 10 Greens (all list), 6 Lib Dems (4 list), and 1 Other (list).
Implications:
SNP with thirty plus of 59 Westminster seats in 2015.
SNP able to form nationalist coalition with Greens, or possibly form government alone. This opening the door for a further referendum between 2016 and 2021.
That is of course an opinion to which you are entitled. But events may intervene- a parliamentary majority in 2016 and consistent opinion polls may well change matters, especially if the SNP has some leverage in Westminster.
Labour are not going to seek support from the SNP. For a start, the only party Labour hate more than the Tories are the SNP. Second, if Labour did that there’d be a Constitutional Crisis almost immediately as we’d likely have two majorities in Parliament depending on the subject of debate, what with the SNP’s promise not to vote on “English matters”. Any SNP-backed majority would be incredibly unstable, so there’s no point in even pursuing it.
Indeed, our deluded John J Dunbar can’t seem to get that getting in to bed with the SNP does neither the Tories nor Labour any good. He seems to honestly believe that the British Parliament will bend over backwards to aid Scotland again despite there already being - at great cost - a referendum and it really not being anything that either helps or is desired by Labour nor the Conservatives.
I’m sorry to break it to the wee fella, but an SNP majority in 2016 and opinion polls mean precisely squat.
You know what? It isn’t unheard of for a party to not go into coalition with another party because they are opposed to their views, no matter whether it would give them an absolute majority or not. I know that as we have exactly that situation right now in Sweden. The left coalition got 43.7% and the right got 39.3%. If either of those coalitions got together with Sverigedemokraterna, who got 13%, they would have an absolute majority.
But neither side did it.
(Note: Before anyone says it, I am not comparing the policies of the SNP and Sverigedemokraterna)
You would be surprised what accommodations can be made in the pursuit of power.
The SNP has already solved the “English votes” problem by saying that the would agree confidence and supply at support Labour policies not in contravention of its own policies. So English domestic policies would be supported but Trident would not.
That is because Sverigedemokraterna are an extreme right wing party with totally unacceptable policies to the main parties. The SNP on the other hand is a centrist to leftist mainstream party.
Economic data shows that UK economy has grown faster than anyone thought, especially since 2010 when David Cameron came into office. According to IMF data, UK will move up from third place to second and bypass France as Europe’s second largest economy and close the gap with Germany(though German economy will still be much larger)in the coming years. That coupled with the aversion of Scottish independence, gives Cameron and the Tories a strong start. Miliband seems not suited to become PM and I pedict that he and the Labour Party will be defeated. The Tories will rule for the rest of the decade.
Yes, which is exactly what I said. There will be two majorities in Parliament and a Constitutional Crisis will quickly be forced by the opposition when it becomes clear that Labour cannot govern 85% of the country within a coalition or confidence and supply agreement that sees their partner refusing to vote on various matters pertaining to that 85%.
The idea that the SNP is going to hold the balance of power in Westminster is only coming from one source: the SNP themselves, who have worked themselves up into a froth during their conference.
You’re not very good at following the point of people’s posts or, frankly, reading them, are you?
Again: Parties should not be automatically assumed to compromise principles or core beliefs in the blind pursuit of power. You appear to be making that mistake, assuming that anyone will partner with the SNP just to get power.
Difficult to arrange immediately and likely to return a similar result. Also leading to massive uncertainty on the financial markets for . Remember last time.
Not at all. Everything is in place, there’s very little to do organisation-wise.
I’m not sure that’s relevant. Cameron will still be PM and the Coalition still in government until a new government is formed. Or are you referring to 1974?