Labour*
Once they have lost the seats they will be forced to reconsider their position. That may jeopardise their future in Scotland, but will be necessary if they wish to carry out their programme of government.
The SNP is currently investigating the protocol for a minority government seeking to govern by altering regulation, arguing that such changes should require a vote in the House. If the SNP do get fifty or so seats they will have major representation on many committees including some chairmanship. Claiming that a minority government can just ignore other parties is cloud cuckoo land as they will not have a majority in any committee so usual channels will be necessary to stop committees delaying or destroying legislation.
Claiming that the SNP will be ignored is just cloud cuckoo land.
Note that this also applies to a Conservative minority government which will have to deal with SNP alliances over specifics in committee with other opposition parties.
I think a period of minority government would be interesting. As PJen says, the government would be in a minority in all the committees, and would have to claw for every piece of legislation.
And because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act would not be able to cut and run to another election.
The committee stage is after second reading of a bill, so I’m not clear that there’s huge scope to change the bill in any substantial way. But, as you say, it’s going to be interesting.
Not just legislative committees, but the select committees too, although I’ll grant they tend to be more consensual and Chatham-House style.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it got repealed, actually. Certainly enough Labour and Tories that want shot of it.
I think there would be reluctance to do that and then cause an election. The British public has a history of punishing parties that cause unnecessary elections.
Two cheers for Labour!
Well, they’d try to time the dissolution just right then!
Just re-read your post. Second Reading’s a debate stage where they discuss the general objectives of a Bill, and based on that they can make changes in Committee Stage, but really, it’s not much of a restraint on Committee Stage. And they can make any changes they like in Report Stage.
Not really; look at 1974. And a revitalised Tory party, possibly under a new leader, could make significant gains.
Two scandals:
The weirdo mentioned above by PatrickLondon and Capt. Ridley’s Shooting Party, Grant Shapps, has been discovered diddling his own Wikipedia article, which for a politician falls in that grey area between dodgy and idiotic; however he was also making other Conservative rivals’ pages look bad.
This is not part of the Chairman of the Conservative Party’s remit.
The other is the front page news on the Daily Mail, which has discovered the Labour Party is connected to the Trade Unions !
The Labour party might also do well if it is the sitting government at the time- that is what happened in 1974 with Wilson getting an increased majority. I am assuming that any Cameron hang-on government will first fail and then be replaced by a Miliband government before a further election is possible.
Cameron would immediately get the boot and Boris would be a shoe-in. A revitalised Tory party under him would be a much more difficult opponent in the election.
Boris isn’t even remotely a plausible candidate for PM. “How badly will you hurt this guy?” is all that’s needed to torpedo him.
I disagree. Unlike Cameron he’s a character and a leader.
No, the Darius Guppy tape is enough to sink him as PM. My quote in the previous post is an actual one.
Boris is Marmite. He would bring the Tories together but would alienate a lot of their soft centrist vote.
Johnson states that he did not give Guppy the journos address. That at least is a potential get out for him. Plus, and this is only thinking out loud, how much traction would an illegaly(I assume it was illegal) obtained phone conversation now get?
This is probably untrue. Johnson has won the London Mayoral election twice. I realise London is not representative of England, however, neither is it natural Tory territory. That is two massive electoral tests of Johnson’s ability not to alienate the centre.