The Tories are denying it, but they’re planning £12 billion in cuts and can’t explain where they are coming from! They won’t touch pensions, raising taxes is out, raising money from non-doms is out, they’ll pledge to ringfence NHS spending again, the military has had its funding cut massively, etc. which leaves very little left to cut other than things like child benefit.
Incidentally, I think this has been one of the worst electoral campaigns by a sitting government party that I’ve seen. I’m not convinced these “campaign consultants” like Lynton Crosby actually translate outside of their own country. All of this negative campaigning on the part of the Tories may play well in Australia but it hasn’t gone down particularly well here.
Given that they were meant to have opened up a lead now, it’s definitely failed.
Scroll down on this Seat Calculator and you can see predictions of who will win which seat (of the 150 most likely to change hands). It’s based on Ashcroft constituency polls or an Electoral Calculus alternative to uniform swing. If accurate, it suggests that the Tories are only winning seats from the Lib Dems, while Labour are winning from the Tories. Anecdotally, I’ve heard that Dave and Boris’s wallkabouts are more often in Tory seats than Labour ones.
Given that the SNP is further from the Conservatives than Labour, the sensible thing for a Tory to do would be to vote Labour. Scottish unionists have been trying to get people to do that, but only time will tell if they’ll be successful.
Unless you’re voting in the expectation that the not-coalition will collapse and The Boris will sweep to power in a couple of years rather than five years. Which seems too much of a gamble for me.
If we assume that the “May2015 Predicts” result is accurate the Conservatives may come out in front with 277 but who apart from UKIP and the DUP (who aren’t going to give them another 49 seats) are they going to ally with to get them up to 326? Definitely not the SNP and presumably not the LibDems, which means they’re stuffed.
Conversely a Labour-SNP link-up of some sort still leaves them four votes shy of 326, which means they’ll need the LibDems OR a selection of tiny parties such as PC and the Greens to get there. Still, it’s more likely than a right-wing government.
Yes, it’s always been hard to see a Conservative-led coalition. (I think they would partner with Lib Dems, but it won’t be enough.)
But the Labour options are really interesting. There is a huge difference between a Labour+SNP = majority scenario and one where they need a third (and fourth?) party to get over the line. Labour/SNP/LibDem would probably be more acceptable to a lot of people, on the assumption the SNP wouldn’t have as much bargaining power and could themselves be “reined in” by the Lib Dems. But it would make for a much more complex dynamic and would thus be much more unstable. A Lab/SNP/minor parties scenario would be unwelcome, I think, because it could be painted as handing veto power to the sole Green MP. (Are there any independents standing with a hope of winning? That could be hilarious.)
So, even though nothing’s written in stone (satire), I’m beginning to think/panic that the Tories are going to edge it. I know things are stacked against them, but the polls seem to be shifting ever so slightly their way, and I think they could pick up a lot of UKIP and shy Tory votes in the privacy of the booth. Then there’s: this:
On the other hand, the England only polls I’ve seen still say its damn close. Too close for the Tories to actually swing a majority coalition.
Thanks, Stanislau. That article also relates that the SNP may not be in for sweep they think. With their supporters so optimistic that might lead to some hysterics when the polls start coming in.