UK General Election May 2015 (Population Share Version)

I’m pretty sure that anyone who wouldn’t vote for him based on that wouldn’t vote for him anyway. I don’t think anyone’s in any doubt that he’s incredibly posh.

Any views on the Labour pledge on non-doms? I am clueless with these types of things.

The FT, infamous Marxists, seem to be in support of ending the non-dom entitlement.

Here’s NPR on the possible impact of the election on the British welfare state: http://www.npr.org/2015/04/07/398123446/upcoming-british-election-may-determine-welfare-states-fate

What would UKIP want, at a minimum, to be someone’s coalition partner? What would the SNP?

Last night and tonight the two most important debates in the GE take place- those covering the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster. The election will most likely be more clearly decided by the fall of those seats than any others, affecting both the number of LibDem seats (1-10), Labour (10-45) and SNP (6-50). The loss of each LibDem seat to SNP reduces the possibility of a further Conservative based coalition (current projection is a loss of all seats but one), and each loss of a seat by Labour to SNP (current prediction about thirty seats lost) stymie a Labour or LibLab Coalition. This is far more decisive a contest than the equivalent 60key marginal in England, yet these debates seem to be being largely ignored south of the border.

Last night was very much Murphy versus Sturgeon with LibDems and Conservatives largely onlookers, but tonight the debate is repeated, but tonight the Greens and UKIP join the fray. UKIP have zero chance in Scotland, but I shall be looking for informal signs of a Progressive Alliance by SNP, LibDem and Greens (plus PC) starting to form.

Interesting times.

UKIP say they will support any government guaranteeing an InOut referendum in 2016. SNP will bargain for further Devolution, no renewal of Trident and an end to austerity economics.

If by being “ignored south of the border” you mean were on the front page of yesterday’s FT and featured on last night’s Channel 4 news, then yes, they’re being ignored south of the border.

And discussed extensively on the Today programme this morning. Damn you, media, for ignoring things by talking about them in great detail!

But largely absent from mainstream news such as BBC, ITV and most front pages except for peripheral issues.

The first debate on Tuesday was largely ignored on Wednesday. The press seem more interested after the second one that occurred athat day later.

Which reminds me: I note Lord Ashcroft is still around and active in Westminster, the slimy git.

He resigned from the Lords last week, but he’s still active on the political scene. His odd hobby of funding very in-depth polling is a boon to wonks everywhere.

I’d be happier if he funded the Treasury instead of stashing all his cash in Belize.

Three polls today show consistent Labour leads, first series beyond accuracy limits.

Suggesting that for the first time the next poll of polls will show clear blue water!

All predictions are for Labour to be short of a majority.

Interesting times.

There’s a month to go. It’s early days yet - we haven’t even seen the manifestos.

Thanks for the UKIP/SNP answers.

From this remove, it strikes me that Labour is likely to have more coalition options than the Tories. True?

Both major parties will have many options. Including allying with each other to enact serious political reform.

Tories: LibDem, UKIP, DUP. Labour: LibDem, SNP, SDLP, PC, Alliance (maybe), Green

I’m probably forgetting an independent or two.

In terms of passing a Queen’s Speech the next two largest parties are going to be the SNP and the LibDems.

Unless a major war breaks out, that ain’t happening.

That is just *so *cute! :wink: