This one is going to the wire in the early hours, so the beer consumption is going to have to be measured. I reckon a nap after work, perhaps until the 10pm, is the way to go.
I have a lot of champagne that needs drinking, so I’m going to be toasting many of the results, whichever party wins. Each and every one will be a victory for democracy, after all.
The next batch of polls showing no such clear blue water. There really is so much froth in polling and the media’s need for a story.
As I have said above, the poll of polls is probably the best guide as it will collect trends. When three polls suddenly swing that is a bellwether and will affect the poll of polls for at least a week.
A useful summary of the way the polls are trending in the direction I indicated:
Poll tracker showing first clear lead since the real campaign began:
Some SNP supporters are behaving disgracefully with tactics reminiscent of 1930s Germany. Ironically, they use a swastika.
And then here’s some nasty SNP bullying.
As for the opinion polls, they’re all over the place:
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](Election 2015: Polls still tight with Tories yet to gain - BBC News)
The Tory housing association policy announced this morning before the manifesto launch is without a doubt one of the stupidest things I’ve ever read. Are they stuck in the 1980s, just rehashing policy that worked for Thatcher in the hopes it will work again? We’re suffering from a crippling housing shortage and the Tories are proposing to sell off social housing on the cheap, just arbitrarily confiscating private property that belongs to Housing Associations? 2/3rds of all Britons oppose the Right to Buy scheme according to YouGov. Who the hell are they trying to appeal to? Holy shit, if this is their top policy that they’re trying to court public opinion with before the manifesto launch then what is the rest of the manifesto like?
I think this, the disgusting non-stop Lynton Crosby negative campaigning, and the Labour manifesto being generally quite good, has finally tipped me into voting Labour this election.
I read a couple of years back the top Tories held a meeting under a Grant someone to determine the elimination of all social housing, forcing the lower classes either onto the mortgage ladder or into private renting.
Thus increasing personal responsibility and the other things people learn when homeless.
Also many of the Tories’ best friends are private landlords.
[ The odd thing is that council housing when instituted in a previous time of horrific lack of houses was purposed to be far more socially inclusive, embracing all classes. ]
The man who ran an ethically shady internet business under another name and spent far too long pretending it wasn’t him? “Grant Someone” indeed (I’m thinking of Grant Shapps, the party chairman - Cameron can certainly pick 'em).
Grant Shapps aka Michael Green. Some guy is standing against him in his constituency after changing his name by deed poll to Michael Green.
Pretty much. They’re getting desperate. And, TBF, it did work for them in the 80s.
Ha, I was in Co. Tyrone at the weekend and I met the local CISTA candidate. He reckoned he’d at least secure more votes than the Tories, their candidate has apparently never been in Ireland before! I had not heard of CISTA until I saw your post on this thread so it was funny to meet one of their ilk out and about.
In April 2015, OP starts a thread about elections for a new U.K. government to take power in May 2015? 
:eek: Is this a typo? Did you mean May 2017?
In The World’s Greatest Democracy®™ our new government will take power January 2017, and we’re well into the campaign cycle already. Hillary finally announced less than nineteen months before the general election, and has been castigated for waiting so long. We reserve a two-month window between election and government formation just to have plenty of time to litigate possible vote recounts.
Splitting the difference, and assuming the U.K. election is for May 2016, how do you Brits put up with such a short cycle? Is thirteen months long enough to prepare and refute long documentaries about your candidates’ pederasties, etc.? Best Democracy®™ elections take billions of dollars; with your short cycle how do you Brits find enough time to raise and spend that much money?
It’s weird. I can’t work out if this is an actual genuine policy that they really believe in, or if it’s -equally stupidly - based on the belief that this red meat for the great unwashed. I mean, I know the Tories have a long history of ignoring people who actually understand policy implications(see Grayling vs Grieve or IDS vs literally anybody) but surely someone explained to them just how stupid it was?
I’m sure that, much as I disagreed with the 2010 Tory campaign, I could see where some policy was coming from and even grudgingly agree that it wasn’t all totally insane. But this whole campaign is a bad joke. The Inheritance Tax plans are equally stupid (we’ll cut taxes on unearned wealth but tax the savings of people on high incomes to pay for it); an unfunded spending pledge for the NHS; an immigration “ambition” that they’ve already failed to deliver in this government. They’re about as coherent and grounded in reality as the Greens.
Subsidising house prices (again) is moronic. They are also saying they’ll make local councils sell a third of their public housing, the most valuable third. Supposedly this will pay for new build replacement housing. This has never worked.
I don’t know what sort of entities housing associations are, but this policy seems at least immoral, I’m surprised it’s not actually illegal?
Message to idiot Tories. Housing is not a balanced market. Prices (and rents) rise to what the market will bear. Subsidising “first time buyers” stamp duty holidays, whatever tactic you use will simply move prices up to soak up the “free money”.
I really don’t think the Tories give a flying fuck about this issue. They like rising house prices.
Nope. Election Day is May 7, 2015, or basically in about** two weeks**.
We don’t have television political advertising - each party gets an equal amount of time for their “party political broadcasts” to make their case, plus we’ve had a couple of debates, which is a relatively new thing. Local candidates campaign on the basis of leaflets and signs and the usual doorstepping. Compared to the juggernaut that is the US campaign system, the UK campaign process is positively quaint.
And I’m very happy about that.
ETA: Also - the government is already basically shut down (as of March 30) for the pre-election period. Once the results are in, the new Parliament is “summoned” on the 18th of May (for the swearings-in and administrative wrangling) and officially opens on the 27th.
[QUOTE=Claverhouse]
Also many of the Tories’ best friends are private landlords.
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Maybe the nasty party could force these people to sell a third of their property at a discount? Think that would fly?
The Tories are doing a damn good job of fixing things, and 5 more years of them doing what they’re doing - ideally with the Lib Dems alongside as a social conscience - would be ideal. The thing is, “we’re doing what needs doing and will continue doing it” doesn’t spin well, so they need to come up with new ideas.
I’d rather see them promise to make councils act on their obligation to house people, and do away with housing associations entirely, as well as allowing those who want to buy to be able to, but that won’t happen. And I’ll happily keep renting because I like the protections it gives me.
I agree. But we’ve had some American tendencies in the run-up, simply because the date of the election has been known for years, and I’d rather they stay several thousand miles away. The old style kept everyone on their toes.
Indeed, is it not true that in the French system there is no reporting of politics at all during the election campaign? I could go for that, but there would need to be something to counter the bias in favour of the incumbents, because the press could still report on their actions as officers of state.
There’s them wot would agree with you, and then there’s them wot wouldn’t. From my perspective the Tories are doing a damn good job of “fixing” things for themselves and their socioeconomic peers while making life an utter shithole for the working and lower middle classes, and they don’t give a monkey’s for anything the LibDems say or do as long as they get their votes in the Commons.
As someone who’s worked factory jobs or warehouse jobs all my life, and is currently on benefits whilst under the care of the NHS, I disagree entirely. I’m really not sure how easier access to benefits for those who actually need them, changes to ESA to help people get better, not rot away on benefits for the rest of their lives, increased protections for temporary workers and increased access to benefits for low hours workers, how any of that makes life worse for working or lower class people. All that is from my experience in the last 5 years, and the change when signing on last year was vast from even 4 years ago, and entirely for the better.
Yes, the NHS needs fixing, but Labour’s approach of pouring billions into wage increases without bothering about performance will no doubt get them votes but won’t actually improve the service.