big_yellow_kingswood, to quickly answer your hijack: I’d give serious consideration to voting for Bob Carr if he went Federal. Every time I’ve seen him on the news, he comes across well.
Is this likely to happen?
On-topic, I think that Howard’s survival depends almost entirely on the outcome of the war. As others have said, if it’s over quickly he’ll be ok and we’ll be stuck with him for another 4 years. If it drags on, or is seen after the fact to be unprovoked, he may as well just resign rather than wait to get booted out.
Those who are hoping to see Howard head on a political platter (or even a real platter) are probably going to be disappointed.
He’s totally in control. A quick, low casualty action in Iraq and Howard might find a pretext for call an early election. More likely he’ll call it a day and retire leaving Costello with the stewardship and any retribution.
As pointed out by Desmostylus
This is certainly true, but support for the government on this issue has barely wavered much below 80% despite this. Mr & Mrs average Australia seemed to adopt the mindset that even if these people didn’t throw their children overboard, they are the sort of people who would. :rolleyes:
The only hope to remove Howard is if there is a messy, drawn-out (and I mean at least 18 months), non UN sanctioned war in Iraq. Should the UN sanctions the disarmament of Irag via military means, then Crean will be the first domestic political casualty.
And Crean’s leadership is of course the source of the Carr-moving-to-Federal-politics story. Beazley, though a Western Australian, was a creature of the NSW Right (faction of the Australian Labor Party). Crean (a member of the Victorian Right) is being white-anted by the NSW Right.
I’m a glued-on ALP voter, so yes. But as a product of the NSW Right, he is pretty unappealing. More talented than Leo McLeay, less morally vacuous than Graham Richardson. But still the sort of man to make even the defeat of Howard a phyrric victory. Whilst I wouldn’t vote for him, I’d prefer Costello as PM.
LUCK!? The split may have been the Liberals’ good fortune in the 1950s, but the success of Menzies and Santa’s Little Helpers thoughout the 1960s was skill. Don’t be so foolish to believe the MV Tampa was luck either.
As much as the nation hates what Howard is doing at the moment, the bastard is so strong that he isn’t going anywhere unless he wants to. He had an unbelievably high level of public support until the Iraq business came up, and he still maintains a majority in the two-party preferred polls.
Howard will be helped if the UN were to support the US’ war; he would gain the support of many anti-war Australians who deserted him when he announced his support for a US led war.
Combined with the fact that the ALP still has no-one able to successfully challenge Howard in an election, the Liberals are looking strong. However, there’s still a long time before the next election and concievably anything could happen.
I can’t see Howard bowing out anytime soon. A couple of years ago, a leadership challenge seemed imminent, but since the last election, Howard’s looked so strong that it would have seemed crazy for the Libs to consider a leadership challenge. Anyone remember the sickening “Please stay Johnny, we love you so” vote within the party last year?
Even now, he seems to want to keep fighting, and if he were to retire, it would have to be soon to let the new guy adjust before the next election. I’m going to predict he’ll at least stick around until then, and retire during his fourth term (God, I hope I’m wrong).
I agree that that’s the best hope, but I don’t think that Latham’s the one to do it. He’s entertaining and quite handy as a loose cannon, but I don’t think people would trust him as a Prime Minister for exactly that reason. He also seems to inspire the same sort of irrational hatred that the Clintons draw in America (not that I’m enamoured with him myself) and I think that many swing voters may vote against him simply because he’s Mark Latham.
Again, I disagree. This would be true if the Libs were any type of challenge, but Brogden’s a joke. I can’t stand Carr’s sickening poll-driven electioneering, and he’s pushed so far to the right that he’s got Brogden well and truly beat on that front. He’s done what Labor failed to do at a federal level and gain the voters of Sydney’s vast western suburbs, the sort who want to see criminals locked up, refugees anywhere but Australia and (seemingly, curiously) Australia not participate in a war without UN backing. Can’t figure that last one out, myself. So if, or when Labor win NSW, it will be because of policy and past performance, and have little to do with the war.
I’m from NSW, but I’m sure you can tell from my comments above that Carr wouldn’t get my vote in any context, state or federal.
I don’t think so. He’s comfortable and successful as premier of NSW, and I think he’s too far into his career to contemplate such a move now. A couple of years ago, I think he would have considered it, but not now.
And put me down as one who thinks Downer’s got no chance at ever being Prime Minister. The guy’s a disaster.
Thanks for an enlightening discussion, everyone. I was also wondering if either PM could be removed in time to prevent your military forces from actually entering the war, but it doesn’t look that way.
I have doubts with Carr. No other state premier has ever become PM, and few have even tried. For the most part, the premiers don’t have enough experience in national politics to move up.
As for my comment on the luck continuing into the 1960’s: as I recall, there was a period of time when the coalition held only 2 more seats than the ALP in the 1960’s, so we must consider that the DLP was a big help.
Going to the LibDems: I doubt that they will be able to pick up the left vote of Labor. These are people who broke away from Labor because it was going too far to the left in the 1980’s, for crying out loud! All that a shift would do would be the destruction of the Social Democratic faction (right-wing Labor), and much of the Liberal faction is Tory wet, so don’t expect that to happen.
My prediction: Eventually, either Labor makes a major mistake, or the Tories shape up, and that’s the end of Blair.
I think you underestimate how far to the right Blair has taken the Labour party. On many issues the Lib Dems are now to the left of Labour. Not because their views have changed but because Labour’s have shifted. Also Kennedy is a pretty wily fellow, Up here in Scotland and the north of England, The Lib Dems are selling themselves as to the left of Labour, down south where people are generally more right wing they are pushing the more conservative parts of the platform in an effort to capture some of the old Tory vote.
I admit it’ll be quite a while before the Lib Dems are the main opposition even but have you seen the Tories lately?
I’m not sure they can shape up.
Blair is safe.
The public is fickle, main reason they are against the war (52% is hardly overwhelming)is that they despise Bush & US policy over Israel.The party itself is packed with poodles & placemen, no worries there.
If the war goes well he will come out looking honest & strong.
Remember that the Brit electorate is essentially right wing.The fastest exit route for any PM is to show sympathy for lesfties /peaceniks etc.
Could be removed in time: YES.
Howard is leader of the Liberal Party and hence PM whilst he has majority support in the party room. In theory a political coup could see Howard deposed tomorrow, literally. The New PM could issue instructions to return the military forces from the Middle East within 24 hours.
I don’t think Blair or Howard will be too upset if supporting Bush damages their political careers. I am quite sure that after the invasion of Iraq, both men will gravitate to executive positions upon various oil company boards, taking home salaries tens of times largers than their current earnings. Just like George Bush Sr., and just lijke John Major (British PM before Blair).
I figure that’s why Blair, normally so public conscious, is so intent on defying British opinion for once. I see him as merely investing in his career prospects.
It seems the only thing that is keeping Howard in power is the fact that there is no credible opposition. People against the war seem to not know who to vote for. The Greens seem the most likely party for a protest vote but they need to seriously tune down the fundamentalism.
Of course, ____ knew just what he was doing, and here in _____ they just laughed at his being a good sport. His opponents in the race for _____ didn’t even bother to bring it up.
If UK Labour MPs stopped to look at their majorities and how Labour’s popularity has gone down, but that of the Tories hasn’t, they’d all start backing TB vociferously. I think that a good win in the Gulf will stop Labour losing the next election. Look at MT and the Falklands - Major and the first Gulf War doesn’t apply because Major wasn’t a Leader.
