People are blaming the NSW Right Bogyman for Crean’s own failings. Yes, the NSW Right is powerful, but they’re not self destructive. Crean is a poor leader. Dissent in the federal party reflects that, it’s not the cause. Some of the dissenters are from the NSW Right, but others are not. Carmen Lawrence has really been stirring the shit recently, for one. She’s about as far removed from the NSWR as you can get!
I also have to disagree with gex gex’s claims that Carr is ‘poll driven’ in his electioneering. The guy works the media very, very well - he is an ex journo. When he enacts legislation or policy that will be popular, he milks it for all it’s worth. When it’s not popular, he simply doesn’t alert the media. There was an article in the sydney morning herald a few days ago about this.
I’ve been keeping an eye on some of the Australian media over the web (gotta stay current on what’s going on at “home”).
Those of you who are living in Australia can correct me if i’m wrong, but it seems to me from the sources i’ve been looking at that Peter Costello has been particularly quiet during this whole brouhaha, not really speaking out in support of Howard’s position, but also not offering any criticism.
It struck me that he is just hanging back in the hope that he can step in at the right time and pull the rug out from under Howard. He could then say to those supporting war that he was never opposed to the idea, while saying to those who opposed war that he never really supported the idea. And if Howard’s popularity does not really suffer in the long run, then Costello is still the loyal treasurer he has always been.
Is this the way you see it when you watch the news each night, or am i getting the wrong impression from the web?
Costello’s a puzzle to me, mhendo. I’m not even sure he wants the job unless it falls into his lap. Certainly he’s shown no signs of taking it. I don’t understand why he let Downer take the Opposition Leader’s job when they took it from Hewson. And I don’t understand why he let Howard come back from the political dead when Downer proved so hopeless so quickly.
But I doubt your “waiting in the wings” scenario, for several reasons: 1. Above I said he’d been sidelined - I don’t think that he’s been absent from the stage so much as others have been given more prominance by the PM. 2. He has in fact spoken in favour of the PM’s position, in Parliament whilst Howard was out of the country. 3. To get the leadership he would require party-room support, and regardless of popular opinion, there is no way in the world the Liberal party-room is going to support challenge on the basis that he would be a less bellicose leader.
big_yellow_kingswood, I don’t dispute that Crean has serious problems unrelated to the activities of the various clans of the NSW right. But I do think that some of them are white-anting him.
Ooh, I dunno. Leo McLeay’s son’s got preselection. And Lawrence was a favorite of Keating, past all reason. Sure Lawrence is of the Left (to the extent that this means anything in WA), but the factions are driven as much by influence as ideology (cf The Pledge). Lawrence chose to spit the dummy partly because she had no mates in the current leadership team. Perhaps she thinks she will come back to the fold under a new leader. Or just that she no longer feels caucus-bound now she has no real influence, so she might as well say her piece. But I doubt she would have done it had one of the bruvvers been at the wheel.
Aside from the mean-spirited swipe at the scion of a man incapable of riding a stationary bike, I really do disagree with the idea that factions generally aren’t self-destructive. Only if you can credibly commit to driving the bus off the cliff do you get a seat at the table in the ALP. If you can be relied upon to behave reasonably if royally screwed, you will be.
I originally submitted this post just as the SD died last night, and hawthorne’s mostly beaten me to the punch but …
(Treasurer) Peter Costello’s position on Iraq is largely unknown as he’s almost invisible at the moment, what with the economy in reasonable shape and a long way from the Budget. What little media attention has come his way on Iraq has been answered with a straight down the line recital of the Howard position. There is no reason to doubt this. However there’s simply no way that he is in a position to mount a challenge. He’s where he is until Howard passes (or drops) the baton.
This is not to say he’s a happy camper. Yesterday Shane Stone, the Liberal Party President, announced he would be seeking another term. Stone is a staunch Howard supporter and author of a memo famously leaked in May 2001 (when the Libs were near rock bottom) describing Costello as “mean, tricky and out of touch”. Howard then twisted the knife with faint praise about the tremendous loyalty being shown by Costello. The most enthusive comment about Stone from Costello is that he “competently chairs the party executive meetings”.
The one thing PC desperately wants to avoid is any prospect of a “Hawke/Keating @ Kirribilli” style agreement on a transition of power.
hawthorne 's point about possibly not even wanting it is interesting. The last generation’s “Colt from Kooyong” becomes the “Hack from Higgins”?
If he wants the job he’ll have to fight Tony Abbott and if he’s not up to it, he’ll be a classic political favourite beaten. (for any 'merkins reading this, the two contenders for next Australian Liberal Party Prime Ministers really are Abbott and Costello )
As to the NSW Right Wing, their capacity as a destabilising force is largely undiminished. They can still play hard-ball political thugs with the globe’s best. But as to getting up their own agenda, they’re high water mark was the Keating ascendency. Ever since they’ve struggled to win a chook raffle. As evidence John Della Bosca (faction leader, NSW Minister for Industrial Relations) attempts and even worse repeated failure to shoehorn his wife, the truely appaling Belinda Neal, into the seat of Robertson.
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