That’s awesome! Are there any tweets or news stories about that, or is it yours?
That’s not a classist thing BTW. I’ve never been, or tried to present myself as, anything other than working class. I still live on the council estate I grew up on. None of my friends or family would be seen dead reading that arse-rag.
Surely it was a joke.
Right?
Obligatory Yes, Prime Minister scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGscoaUWW2M
Haha. I would have been four when that ended and it’s still pretty much on the money.
Nothing changes.
Point made elsewhere on the YouGov data; every single employment/working category favoured Labour, only pensioners favoured Conservative.
It was, though the way things are going …
Kind of stunning, how narrow their current voter base is, and how it still led to a plurality of seats.
This is where the turnout question matters. This analysis (again, of constituency characteristics rather than actual voters) suggests that turnout among older voters fell, and that when they did vote, the vote split pretty evenly Labour/Tory. (God, I wish we could post graphs here). If that’s the case then the risk for Labour in the next election is that the Tories put up a better leader and a better manifesto (they can hardly do worse) and older Tories who sat out this time respond by coming back to the polls. The potential for Labour is that they can move those older voters from “disenchanted with the Tories” to “grudgingly open to Labour” and start narrowing the Tory lead with this group. But the Tory party has had a short sharp shock, and will be absolutely mindful of winning back older voters next time round, so Labour will have to work hard to counteract that.
What I’d really love to see is an analysis of marginals. My impression is that the Tories are now hold more marginals than Labour - otherwise they’d have lost, I guess - which means they have to defend hard in any next election, whereas Labour, with fewer marginals to hold, will be better placed to attack. How those marginals interact with the demographics of age/education-level/home ownership will be fascinating.
My impression of - targetted - marginals is that Momentum absolutely nailed them - Corbynistas in drove were highly motivated and committed; its obv. not just your numbers, it’s the frequency with which they are out canvassing. Momentum were running a parallel campaign to themain Labour party - and were also responsible for much of the hugely successful social media content.
I do know Momentum basically encamped in Battersea for 5 weeks.
I suspect Kensington and Chelsea was slightly different (a) hardly anyone expected it (b) a huge Remain/metro combo, plus a local Labour councillor. Not really sure, though.
Canterbury was clearly an expecionally organised local campaign to get out the student vote. Labour will takes this organisation national.
Don’t know about Stroud, Ipswich, etc.
This isn’t a comprehensive analysis, but goes some way towards what you’re looking for.
Earliest known source is actually a French jurist, Anselme Polycarpe Batbie, according to
[Quote Investigator]
(Quote Origin: If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain – Quote Investigator®).
Thanks!
The question really does seem to be how long the Tories can resist a general election by keeping some semi-plausible form of government going with the DUP. The longer they can spin it out, and the more time they have to think hard about the next manifesto and who the next leader should be, the better for them. Conversely, if Labour can find wedge issues to drive the Tories and DUP apart, they could stand to do well.
All of a sudden The Guardian are experts.
Can’t thank them enough for their 14-day rolling poll tracker. And their very late endorsement of Labour. Idiots.
Incidentally, the Liberals haven’t formed a government since women received the vote. The National Liberals formed a minority in a few of the National governments, most notably Lloyd George being PM from 1915 to 1923, and the Liberals also took part in coalitions from 1924-25 and the LibDems in 2010-15. Female voters skewed Tory until 1997.
Sure. Still what working-class people I meet are generally of the Randian anti-welfare state ilk ( Spongers ! Parasites ! ) enough to gladden the heart of any GOP congressthing; so it would be odd to suppose the thing came from their demands rather than from, in Britain, the Webbs and Beveridges of this wicked world.
Dad was also a progressive Tory.
Although. like an earlier Boris — I’m sure Randy would be flattered by the comparison — playing with anti-EU-ism, he got caught up in ‘Ulster Will Fight and Ulster Will Be Right’ as a cynical toy to storm the cabinet.
And for some reason the progressive French Left never implemented Female Suffrage til after WWII.
Something about the ladies, God Bless 'em, being naturally conservative and naturally prone to listening to priests…
The French Chamber of Deputies passed a half-dozen women’s suffrage bills between the World Wars (granted a few were for local elections only), but they were all defeated in the Senate which wss dominated by the right-wing.
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