Ukraine invasion: What would it take for Russia’s current allies to abandon their support?

In My Humble Opinion
41

I think that argument is overplayed and overstated … what percentage of its anual GDP is China buying at discounted rates? … 1, 2, 3%? … definitely not a substantial part of it like 1/3 or so…

so - probably enough to welcome the windfall profits, but nothing to reorient strategically … which isn’t true for political aspects…- there China is very much “all ears” on whats going on in the -stans etc… and how to grow their influence-sphere there.

42

The answer is money, or the lack thereof. That’s pretty much always the answer.

If the situation gets to the point where it impacts China’s economy in a negative and significant way, then Putin will have a bigger problem.

43

Eh - The US intent does not matter to India, its actions does.

Now lets take a look at Pakistan (this analysis is borrowed from the https://theprint.in/)

  1. Pakistan’s population is 5 th in the world (China, India, US, Indonesia, Pakistan)
  2. Pakistan is 6th largest militarily (Who has the biggest military in the world? Most powerful, wealthiest.)
  3. Pakistan is 2nd largest Muslim Country and soon will be the largest
  4. Pakistan has the sixth largest stockpile of Nuclear Bombs ( Russia, United States, China, France, United Kingdom, Pakistan) Nuclear Weapons by Country 2023
  5. Except China, Pakistan has hostile relations with its neighbors : India, Iran, Afghanistan but it is very strategically located. Its probably a good entryway into China.

So whether Pakistan is good or bad, it is too important for the US to ignore. Even though Pakistan’s economy came to the brink of disaster lately, the US will not let Pakistan become a failed state. The US will not let Pakistan be a great success or a great failure - it will keep it under it’s wing.

India gets this and has, and will continue to shape its foreign policies accordingly. India made jet fighters are in their infancy, but the missile program is pretty advanced. Israel provides many key features in he army and some of it comes from South Africa too.

I am not a weapons expert but India does have a multi - year strategy on weapons and the long term goal is to make stuff domestically.

44

Russia’s equipment is not worse than Ukraine because they are using the same equipment. It is significantly worse than the US and other western countries. Russia knows they are a generation or two behind. That’s why they developed the Armata tank and the family of vehicles around it. By now it was projected to be their front line tank. They were supposed to have thousands fielded but only have dozens built. As far as I’ve seen not one has seen action in Ukraine.

45

Interesting review of the positions of non-Western nations and the economic / geo-political factors which tend to support Russia: