The biggest problem with this isn’t that they necessarily have them. It’s that those regimes are fairly unstable and when/if they collapse you will have some unknown groups all trying to get their hands on the things. I never thought Iran was crazy for trying to get nukes, it is and was rational from their perspective. But that doesn’t mean I think they should be allowed to get the things from our perspective.
Well, yes, that was my whole point as well. There are plenty of good reasons for us to work to prevent them from getting nukes, but at the same time, it’s okay to acknowledge why they want the nukes in the first place.
Yeah, sorry, I was agreeing with you and just underscoring the point. I think it’s always good to understand why countries want something and put it into the context of their own perceived goals and needs.
I don’t think people really say they’re crazy for wanting nukes. The advantages of being a nuclear state are obvious. People say they’re crazy, and they want nukes.
Ukraine could have scraped some stuff off the walls in Chernobyl and made some dirty bombs but there are some significant drawbacks to that, namely loss of international support and nuclear retaliation from Russia. So I bet they thought about it and decided it was best to leave that card unplayed for now.
Having said that, I don’t know anything about the Ukraine military. Do they have a Tier 1 Special Forces unit? Is it possible there could be Ukrainian commandos getting ready to do some sabotage or assassinations in Moscow?
Probably all true.
Of course Russia now controls Chernobyl, and there’s been speculation that they might make dirty bombs, which could be used to extort surrender from Ukraine.
But the Russians supposedly all believe that Ukraine is actually part of Russia. Certainly many Russian-speakers live there now, and presumably will go on doing so—so making any major parts of Ukraine unlivable would be impossible to sell back home.
Of course Putin could simply lie about having used dirty bombs in Ukraine. But in a hypothetical future in which he succeeds in installing a puppet government (or anything close to that), and Russian-speakers (among others) in Ukraine are suddenly dying of cancer in large numbers—that will be impossible to keep quiet.
The X factor here is that we don’t know how rational Vlad may be. A rational Russian leader wouldn’t poison the land in Ukraine. But…
At this point, even in Russia there seems to be little popular support for this war. An attack inside Russia might change that, so if they do have assets in place, it would be the smart move to have them hold off, in hopes that some element of Russian society finally does something about Putin.
This is exacerbated by the fact that most of the major Russian areas of Ukraine are down wind from the rest of Ukraine. Dirty bombing the pro-Ukraine parts will do almost as much damage to the pro-Russian parts.
Exactly. So it’s not something a rational leader would order. But…
My feeling is, if he’s irrational enough to order this, he’d probably just nuke the place old-fashioned style.
You could be right. I’d be more inclined to guess ‘poison people with radiation,’ though, as that seemed to be one of his hobbies long before this particular land-grab attempt.
Who would have thought that my joke post about a recent movie would have real-world implications so soon?
It’s the difference between industrial scale mass violence, and hand-made artisanal violence.
Support your local violence!
That IS an excellent line, Horatius. 
Too bad an entire nation has given one guy the power to make it relevant…
Well, not a nuke but the Ukrainians sniped a Russian general:
This is what the guy gets for having the cleanest uniform on the battlefield.
That’s the very picture of him.
Carlos Hathcock (“White Feather”) said when he had a selection of pretty indistinguishable targets he always choose the one that was a little different, the one guy in white sneakers for example.
In the battle of Trafalgar, Nelson walked about on the deck with his Admiral’s hat on, basically telling the opposing troops “Please shoot me”
Yes nukes are sort of a contradiction. Post proliferation, the only time it makes sense to use a nuke is if you have already lost everything and have nothing else to lose, so the most useful time to use it is when its already too late to use it usefully. Their sole usefulness is in providing a strong motivation for your enemies not to put you in the position where you have lost everything and have nothing else to lose.