Unemployment and Jobs in the UK

I was going to reply to the Nahployment topic, but then I thought a UK centric version might be interesting.

There seem to be three main factors that have upset the job market in the UK. Thankfully, being shot for enforcing the wearing of a mask is not one of them. Instead, we have Brexit, Covid and the long term demise of the department stores.

Brexit has meant that many East Europeans have gone home, citing in many cases a wish to be with their families during the pandemic. This has created a shortage of workers, notably truck drivers.

Support for workers laid off for the duration is ending, so many employers are telling staff that there is no job to return to.

The death of the High Street is a problem long predating, but accelerated by Covid. Many household names have either cut right back, switched to the internet only or closed altogether.

Of course, the problems are much more complex than that, but as an ex truck driver, who reads trucker forums, it is hard to understand what it is about the work that makes it so hard to recruit and retain staff. Wages are highly variable, ranging from £10 to £20+ per hour and for the most part, the work is pretty easy.

I knew at least one guy who did an Open University degree in Economics while working full time as a driver. Others are content to while away their free time watching iPlayer on their laptops, and there is a lot of idle time.

Can you make one translation please, is “High Street” the main business district with smallish shops?

‘High street shop’ in the UK doesn’t necessarily imply small shops- it usually means town/city centre shops of all sizes from big department store to dinky speciality shop. Just to complicate things, ‘high street shops’ can also mean physical retail shops in general, especially those of well-known chains, including those in out of town malls, though not usually supermarkets.

Anecdotally, what I’ve heard is not so much that truck driving has got much worse (though there’s supposedly some tax changes that are having an impact? I dunno), but that there’s better paid jobs that you can get with the same licence that don’t involve sitting round off the clock waiting for loads or spending days away. Plus the barrier to entry is pretty high if you don’t already have the licence, especially at the moment with the backlog of applications. It’s not a job known for being conducive to good heath either. I can see why people aren’t rushing to get in to it.

Where I live (in a big city in Canada) many people don’t drive. I have a hard time finding any friends who own vehicles, though most probably have a license. Needless to say they have little experience in driving. To drive a truck you need a special license, and you need to pay for that and get trained before you can start driving a truck. The job has a barrier to entry. (Of course, many jobs have a university degree barrier to entry, special training requirements, and so forth. But it’s not a job that you can just walk into with virtually no prep.)

The job is seen as blue collar (which is not bad at all, but there’s a social element). The job has a reputation for long hours, sitting around, and maybe at the end of a drive you have to lift heavy objects. (Or not. But people will assume the worst.)

What are those people living off of? In Canada unemployment just got extended another month (to October) but last month payments were cut 40%. In Canada getting on welfare is probably as difficult as getting onto Universal Credit, but unlike in the UK getting payments reduced or eliminated completely virtually never happens. If anything, I would expect the problem here to be worse than in the UK.

I wouldn’t argue with any of that. It currently takes a few weeks and £3000/£4000 to get through the test, both driving and medical. Covid has caused a large backlog of potential drivers awaiting tests as well. The major employers have a lot to answer for in respect of the lack of training and poor management.

From what I read, there are not a great many directly employed jobs around. Most employers seem to be using temporary agency drivers, possibly afraid that if they increase wages, they will be stuck with those expensive drivers if the shortage goes away.

Kind of a massive game of chicken really…

People aren’t going to commit without a decent contracted job, especially if it means getting a licence or quitting their new, more stable job. From what I can tell, there’s not really a shortage of drivers, so much as a shortage of drivers willing to pick up the £10 an hour type jobs.

Meanwhile, the supermarket shelves are starting to look a bit bare.

It’s odd that many drivers sneer at supermarket work. Yes, it can be boring, the trucks are usually pretty basic, and you are expected to drag trolleys or pallets out of the trailer, but it’s still pretty easy work. Aldi currently pay £30,500 for drivers and Tesco are giving £1000 bonuses, so there is money to be made.

Brexit and Covid have really caused a lot of problems in the job market. Lots of ‘we are hiring’ signs in restaurants and bars in London because a huge number of hospitality workers were youngsters who when Covid hit, went back to their parents in France, Italy, Spain or where ever. Those that want to return to the UK now have to deal with the Brexit rules. Whereas once people could come and go across the EU, the UK now has rules. It only wants to attract the ‘brightest and best’ from all over the world. In pursuit of this we have the Home Office let by Pritti Patel. This department maintains a ‘shortage occupations list’. If the job is not on that list, you don’t qualify for a work visa.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations

Now, it would be fine thing if government department like the Home Office has its finger on the pulse of the UK economy, was sensitive to the labour needs of business. and reacts swiftly to let in workers with skills needed.

Sadly this is not the case. They want only the best, highly qualified professionals and those endorsed by the prestigious academic and cultural institutions. There is also a pay threshold to prevent cheap labour coming in. It is informed by the worst British snobbery and prejudice about what is ‘skilled’ and valued work thought up by civil servants.

What this means is that low pay long hour businesses like hospitality, care workers, agricultural workers do not qualify. This also hits the building sectors, where half the workers were from Romania and Poland. Truck drivers, especially those that are EU nationals, have been hard hit by Brexit and all the delays and bureaucracy on each side of the channel.

The UK governments response has been that businesses should simply train up more UK nationals to do these jobs and pay higher wages

In the case of truck driving, their case has been somewhat undermined by the fact that for the past year or more the driving schools and the test centres have been closed. So there are no new drivers entering the job market and lot of EU drivers deciding that working in the UK means more staying away from their families. Also with all the lockdowns and all the Internet shopping, there has been a big increase in demand for delivery drivers.

With respect the hospitality business, I pass signs in bars and restaurants in London advertising for staff, now that things are getting back to normal and people are starting to go out.

What is happening is that before Brexit, the UK had a very open labour market due to the free mobility of labour principle of the EU. It was very easy for an employers to hire someone from the EU which has a population of 445 million. Even the most remote businesses could find the workers they needed. They filled in the gaps in the labour market very effectively. This had the effect of keeping wages low in some areas. Ending cheap foreign labour stealing our jobs was one of the rallying cries from the Brexit supporters. But it turns out the opportunity to do these long hours low wage jobs was not met by much enthusiasm by the younger workers considering their career options.

It takes a lot of persuasion to convince someone that doing agricultural work, becoming a carer, or the working in the notoriously underpaid hospitality sector is a good idea. If those areas became better paid then the cost of food would go up, we would need extra taxes to pay for social care and dining out will be an activity reserved for the well heeled. That consequence of the Brexit deal was never really made very clear to the public .

At the same time as Brexit, the labour market has also been hit by Covid and that is having a big effect. It has given a lot of people time to pause and re-consider their work/life balance. Many have decided to change what they do because of poor pay/bad management/long hours/awful commutes. This is putting a lot of pressure on employers to make work more attractive. The alternative is to pay through the nose for agency workers.

The government is the biggest UK employer. So it will end up paying for a lot of these skill shortages by having to hire from a diminishing pool skilled workers. There will always be someone who benefits from this and it is the job agents who charge a premium to find skilled workers. The UK NHS alone paid £6.2billion in agency fees. It deals with shortages of doctors and nurses by inviting those in less developed countries to work in the UK, thereby depleting healthcare in countries desperately need it. Covid was made far worse in the UK because social care is underfunded and its staff underpaid and it is a local government responsibilty rather than coming under the NHS. This was a long standing structural problem that is just now becoming a political priority.

Another structural problems in the UK is that skills training has never been taken as seriously by government as it is in other countries (eg. Germany). We just send half the kids to university and hope they come out with some useful skills. Goodness knows what the other half are supposed to do. Businesses are not incentivised to train their staff. Consequently productivity is pretty low and companies are slow to innovate and adapt to technology changes.

It would be nice to imagine that the government has a ‘cunning plan’ to deal with these important issues. Sad to say, all we get is sound bites and Covid has provided a most convenient excuse for all manner of political failings. All these things can be fixed if the politcal will was there. But usually it waits until there is a crisis.

A short term fix would be to allow in EU drivers until sufficient UK nationals could be trained and maybe subsidise their course fees.

Instead we like to have a bit of a drama in the UK.

The shortage occupation lists recognises this and invites Oscar winners. But only some categories!

I looked at that Gov.UK website, and are wages really that low? Mechanical engineer - 26,720 pounds (sorry, can’t make the pounds sign). Straight out of college my niece was hired by Honda as a mechanical engineer for about $70K And that was 7 years ago.

StG

Maybe, without a source of cheap labour, those industries will invest in better equipment and become more efficient. Also maybe, the likes of Amazon etc will be ‘persuaded’ to make a more realistic contribution to the economies that they work in.

We live in exciting times…

There are many factors influencing the future. The impact of Covid and Brexit is yet to be seen and the move to ‘green’ energy will have far-reaching consequences beyond the desired climate effect.

As shopping moves more and more online, there will be gaps in town centres that can be converted to dwellings, thus reducing commuting time for those that have not chosen to do at least part of their work from home.

Most Western countries have aging population with falling birth-rates. In the UK retirement age is now 66 and that will rise to 70 over the next few years. This means fewer opportunities for youngsters to get in at the bottom.

It’s difficult to compare like that, although engineers are notoriously undervalued here. Truck drivers would expect to earn more.

Remember that a gross income of £26,720 will be around £22,000 nett. No extortionate healthcare premiums to pay and four weeks annual leave at least.

Very difficult to increase the efficiency of personal care. As it is, personal social care visits to the elderly in their home are quite rushed and the benefits are devalued because of this. Maybe the care workers could be given apps instead of having to write copious notes by hand. That kind of assumes they have a smartphone and a contract…they can surely afford that out of their minimum wage.

The distinction between what is regarded as valuable ‘skilled’ work and what is devalued as ‘unskilled’ is all very dubious. It seems to be based on snobbery rather than the needs of the country.

I make about $65K per year. I save $30K per year for retirement - pre-tax. Out of the approx $35K left, I pay about $8K in income tax and social security/medicare. I pay $1378/yr for health insurance. Hardly extortionate. I take home $26,000 per year and save $30K. And I’m just a business analyst without a college degree.

StG

It is not a typical salary, it is a minimum.

The intention is the discourage employers from hiring workers from overseas on very low salaries. Some employers are very fond of this practice.

I am curious why you need to save more than half your salary for retirement, from what is not a huge salary? I only put around 7% into my pension and it is quite adequate for my needs now I am retired.

Was there no shortage of truck drivers before Covid/Brexit? In the U.S. at least the truck driver shortage has been a thing for about 10 years, and it’s only getting worse as it’s an industry whose workforce is “graying out.”

In the U.S. at least it’s seemed quite linked to the fact that the relative wage of driving a truck has decreased. I apologize from going from memory, but I once saw a statistic that going back to 1980, when a decent % of truck drivers owned their own truck and were independent haulers, the overall average pay for a truck driver was something like $85,000/yr in inflation adjusted dollars. This would have been around $26,000 in 1980 dollars. The BLS reports that average truck driver pay these days is around $47,000/yr or $22/hr. While that is a nominal increase from the 1980 number, it’s an inflation adjusted decrease. My understanding is the nature of these jobs has changed, independent haulers are all but unknown among drivers under age 45 or 50, they’ve been priced out of the market in various ways. Driving for a company is generally less lucrative, and companies are also generally stingier for various reasons. The percentage of these workers represented by the Teamsters (one of the traditional unions for people who move things around) is at all time lows. Benefits have been cut. My understanding is the sign on programs for most drivers is fairly exploitive at this time, they are lured with signing bonuses and other incentives, but long term pay raises are few and far between, so older drivers in their 50s and such are enjoying wages that the younger drivers have little reason to expect they will ever be able to achieve. Unsurprisingly this has made trucking less attractive, but we still get a lot of people questioning “why is there a trucker shorage in the United States??”

Although my social security should meet my modest needs, I’m more than a little paranoid. I don’t want to end up on public assistance. Or not qualify for public assistance because I have too many assets (mostly my paid-off farm and my rental house). Plus, I didn’t start saving seriously until the last 10 years or so. Although I’ve always saved about 10%. And there have been times of unemployment or 2 house payments when I’ve had to dip into my retirement savings. I make more than I want to spend, why not save it?

StG

My husband and I were in London in October 2019 and we were really confused about how this was going to shake out. The hotel clerk was going to have to go back home to Poland, the waitress at the restaurant to Eastern Europe somewhere, the coffee shop clerk was from Spain, the next night the waiter was from Greece - and all of them were saying “we don’t think they will let us stay.” We never had met a Brit working in the hospitality industry for our entire stay (I’m sure the hotel cleaning staff weren’t British).

It was “we don’t even live here and we can see this trainwreck from across an ocean…” - and then Covid hit.

nit pick: 33400 GBP. 26720 is 80%. Also, it’s a starting rate, and it’s not a London rate, and the weekly hours are likely less than the USA hours … and UK engineers get paid less than in the USA.

I mean, you’re totally right, it’s a clear train wreck, but worth pointing out that most of those people you met probably qualify for settled status. I have a number of EU national friends living in the UK, and they’re all still here.