Is the plan here to achieve the blockade physically? As in by plugging the Strait with sunken US Navy vessels?
Just you wait until he hears about mines and understands what they can do.
And then watch what happens when he fires the people who laid them and knew where they are.
I think the “plan” as it were is to talk tough. Or what sounds tough to Trump.
Good post.
As soon as I heard about this “WHAAAAAA!!!1” blockade I saw iiandyiiii’s call on the childish “You can’t blockade us, we’re blockading you!”.
From CBC website:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/livestory/trump-vows-to-blockade-strait-of-hormuz-9.7160908
Didn’t take long for the oil markets to react to the latest news.
Someone made more insider money.
Shrapnel-ridden KC-135R seen in UK.
The images are quite clear.
Trump’s says he’s fine with his threat of genocide.
&
Pakistan deploys fighter jets and support craft to help defend Saudi Arabia.
Wow. One of the few things in the region we could count on for decades is amity between Turkey and Israel.
I worked two summers in Turkey in the mid 90s. After the work ended, I took a short flight from Antalya, Turkey to Tel Aviv, Israel — that’s when I was told about their mutual “live and let live” policies.
…what? I had to look up “amity” to make sure it doesn’t mean the exact opposite of what I thought it meant, but it doesn’t.
Relations between Israel and Turkey might have been peaceful, but they certainly haven’t been friendly.
The 1990s marked a “golden age” in Turkey-Israel relations, transitioning from quiet diplomatic ties to a robust, public strategic and military partnership. Driven by the post-Cold War landscape, the Oslo Accords, and shared security concerns regarding Syria and Iran, the two nations signed key military, trade, and intelligence agreements, peaking with intense security cooperation by 1996.
– Google AI
It seems they did erode somewhat since 1990s ended, that’s true.
Moderating:
OK, probably enough in this thread about past relations between Turkey and Israel.
Possibly I’m reading too much into this, but I get a sense of push back from the military here…
Trump said he was going to blockade the straight of Hormuz, which is utterly insane. What the US Navy did is blockade Iranian ports, which not the same thing at all, and is less insane. IMO this could be the military leadership obeying the orders of their commander in chief enough to satisfy him (the distinction would be completely lost on Trump I’m sure) but avoiding doing the most insane shit he orders.
I could be totally wrong, this might be a blockade of “ports” that is implemented in such a way as it actually blockades the whole straight
As with so much news coverage nowadays it’s pretty useless that I’ve seen no discussion of this distinction anywhere.
But blockading Iranian ports means stopping Iran’s oil exports, if you add that to Iran’s blockade of all other countries oil exports (those that use the Strait) it should result in oil prices going through the roof.
Blockading the entire strait is illegal according to UNCLOS. The US (and alsoIran, actually) is not a signatory, but we generally adhere to it. Blockading Iranian Ports would be from the Navy’s perspective, a legal action they can take.
Aaand back under $100, are they really so sure tomorrow is TACO tuesday?
This is another example of “Trump says some dumb shit and then smart people talk about it as though it’s a real thing.”
Have we been letting Iranian flagged ships sail around for the last 2 months? We haven’t? So then what’s the point of blocking the ports?
Have ships been paying the $2 million ransom? I’m not sure but questionable reporting suggests the number is probably less than 5, if any at all.
Is everyone else standing pat because their insurance companies won’t let them risk getting blown up? Yes.
So nothing has changed with this new “order”, other than the 0-5 ships that may have paid the ransom might range this week from 0 to 0. We need to stop putting 1000x more effort into analyzing the things Trump says than he puts into them in the first place.
Eta: the headlines should just read “Trump uses his position to manipulate global markets to make money for him and his friends. Again.” Ignore whatever he says and just run that headline until people realize there is no strategy, there are no politics, it’s pure gift.
Though this won’t affect that. At least as I read it (it’s not clear from the reporting). This will affect the oil directly exported from those ports but not oil that is exported from other countries for which Iran has been paid a “toll” to allow passage through the straight
The U.S. actions won’t, but Iran’s will, so no oil from U.S. Allies (Because Iran stops it), and no oil from Iran (because the U.S. stops it).
My point is you wouldn’t know that from the media coverage. If you just read the articles like one I just posted (which is the Guardian so hardly pro Trump) you would think he did in fact carry out the dumb shit he said he’d do (blockade the straight) whereas in fact he did nothing of the sort (he blockaded some ports which, as you point out, have probably seen almost no oil shipments since the war began)