Breath. It’s all going to be okay.
Moderating:
Please keep on topic and on posts and not on posters.
Also, consider the possibility that a war really isn’t the best way to change another country.
Had Trump not trashed the Iran nuclear deal, it could have been the basis for more talks to address all the other issues we have with Iran. Instead, all Trump has done is reinforce the control the hardliners have in Iran. It will be at least another generation before we get back to where we were when Obama was President.
Right. Trump legitimized the Iranian hard liners. Anyone in Iran saying “we can be friends with the US” will be laughed out of the room. The hard liners said the USA is the enemy of Iran, and the enemy of Iranians, and Trump proved them absolutely right.
Rephrased: So is your fear that the chants of “Death to America” by Iranian hardliners will be shouted with more conviction now than before?
My fear is that Iranians will start to listen and agree. And who could blame them? We attacked them with indiscriminate bombing and slaughtered their children.
They also know that their own government has killed them by the thousands and has oppressed them by the decades. Iranians I’ve spoken to living in the US (anecdotally) have expressed their unqualified support for the bombing of the IRGC and leadership and are hopeful that this will force a change. These are people with families still living in Iran.
The justification for attacking Iran now was that the regime was at a low point and was losing it’s grip on a population that didn’t want to live under the “Death to America” people.
But then America attacked and the “Death to America” people won a war against them. I don’t think this is going to win them any true supporters for their Islamist ideology but the likely outcome of this is that their propaganda about how America is a threat and a junta is the only thing that can keep them safe is going to find a more receptive audience. And that opposition groups are going to have a tough time distinguishing themselves grom foreign adversaries.
We’ve made enemies of the Iranian people for decades, for no reason at all (your anecdotes are no more evidence than my conversations with Persian Americans with the opposite opinion). Even if they manage to overthrow their government (and there’s no evidence this is any more likely now than before the war), why would they see us as anything other than child murdering enemies?
I know you’re trying to be funny here, but yes, a lot of those shouting “Death to America!” probably didn’t really mean it. Upthread there’s a mention of the Iranian government killing 30-50 thousand of their own people not too long ago. So there’s lots of people in Iran who aren’t hardliners, but probably show up for the regular anti-American demonstrations, because that’s what you do to survive in a brutal dictatorship.
And I suspect more than a few of those people have had an “Oh shit, maybe they were right!” moment some time in the last few months.
I mean, imagine how many of us here would feel if suddenly there was significant evidence that there really is a conspiracy to subvert US elections by bringing in illegal immigrants, or any of the dozens of other CTs the MAGAs have been spewing. Well, the Iranian people have seen evidence of the US being the “Great Satan” over and over again recently.
I did say anecdote, not evidence. Which simply goes to show that there is a difference of opinion among Persians that doesn’t simply support one point of view. Therefore, it is not obviously true that your position is the more correct view, no matter how convinced you may be of your own conclusions.
The pro war arguments, even after all this failure, are identical to the rationalizations for GWB’s Iraq debacle. “We killed the bad people”… What a fucking joke. I can’t believe anyone still buys this pathetic bullshit. War is absolute hell on Earth and should only be entered as a very last resort. Think of how you’d feel about bombs raining down and killing your child at school… And then imagine someone sitting in a comfy chair, thousands of miles away, saying the bombings were right and reasonable and moral.
Many Iranians have hated the regime since 1979. You need more than that to actually topple a regime. The Assad regime, brutally massacred protesters, provoked a real armed uprising from people in the country, bombed and gassed people in the territory they lost to those rebels and persisted in a civil war for years. After all that, Israel taking out Hezbollah’s leaders allowed a now isolated regime to fall to the last remaining rebels.
In this war against Iran we apparently thought we could skip past the years of civil war and thought all the people who hate the regime would manifest an actual armed revolution.
I’ll just leave this here for you and others to consider.
On Navies and Sheltered Pacifism
In his 1940 essay, “My Country Right or Left”, Orwell pointed out how the security provided by a powerful navy can breed a naive form of anti-militarism among the population it protects:
“Ours was the one-eyed pacifism that is peculiar to sheltered countries with strong navies.”
He used this to critique British intellectuals of the interwar period who treated all military matters with disdain. Orwell argued that their ability to safely adopt a purist, anti-war stance only existed because a massive naval shield was quietly keeping foreign threats at bay.
FWIW, I did live in a time and place where a significant population hoped that America would impose a change on the oppressive regime under which we lived. But I don’t expect you’ll find that relatable or persuasive in any way.
Moderating:
A reminder, this thread is still technically for current events going on. Yes, we’re getting few enough updates that we haven’t moderated for that heavily, but that’s it’s intended role. If you want to do a deep dive into reasons for the conflict, please consider going back to the related:
Even if it’s been inactive for a while, it’s the more appropriate option. If you want to do a full deep dive into the US/Iranian historical conflicts, please spin off a new thread.
How to Reply as a linked Topic
Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, looks like a curving arrow point to the right.
Choose Reply as linked topic and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it.
That is actually the best method.
And for @QuickSilver and @iiandyiiii, the ongoing sidetrack on the general appropriateness of war is another topic that should have it’s own thread. Again, spin it off - please do not continue it here.
Its vastness?
A guess - the vastness of it’s history and glory. Despite it’s wealth and power, USA’s history is short and (arguably) on the wane, so Trump wants to destroy a legacy he himself does not have, nor likely to ever have. Thus Trump’s efforts to put his name on everything.
If said interpretation is correct, it’s quite insightful as to Trump’s nature, though I don’t think that it’s his actual motive despite the claim.
That would require Trump to be aware of geography and history. I’m sure his motivation is more venal.
Oil traffic out of the middle east (and especially through Hormuz) is at it’s highest level siince the war began, essentially at pre-war volumes. The worst fears about a collapse of the global energy market appear to be behind us. There is still a significant premium on moving oil from the middle east and there is a ton of uncertainty and disruption in the supply chain but this is much better news that straight up oil shortages, oil wells being shut down etc.
The tactics used by the US over the past few months (while expensive for all involved) have been effective at moving oil through the strait. The net effect of all the blockades are tilted against Iran, which is probably a reason they’ve softened their negotiating position slightly.
The only thing Iran definitely has left is will. It’s still very possible that Iran can withstand a siege economy longer than the US can stomach inflation. Besides that, if they can’t negotiate a lifting of the blockade and sanctions we’ll see if they have any more escalatory measures in their arsenal.