Dropping bombs on Japan achieved their surrender. But then a whole lot of American personnel occupied the country, acting as a shadow/caretaker government to supervise the transition to a new constitutional order and methodically disarm the military. Without MacArthur and his GHQ-led forces, “regime change” in Japan would have been a farce; the bombing made it possible but did not achieve it. As far as I’m concerned, there is zero precedent in which cutting off the head of an evil regime through bombing was then followed by the target country’s own population freely rising to take power in an organized fashion, as the sales pitch for the current attack would have it.
Well, I did say it was arguable, and you argued it well. I think you are correct.
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The first Iran bombing didn’t do anything, the Venezuela campaign didn’t do anything. That’s no guarantee this time will be like those times, but we won’t know until we know.
Iran’s role in the global economy has been increasingly marginal these past few years. If they were able to shut down Gulf oil shipping then the oil shock might be a concern, but I don’t think Iran can project that kind of force anymore.
Regional spillover is of course the wild card.
My assumption is that any affect on the market will be almost instantaneous on the open (keep an eye on futures over the weekend). So the people the admin let know ahead of time have already shorted things (me, a cynic?), and the average retail investor like you and me will be moving too late to salvage anyhing (if it actually crashes long-term, which seems doubtful).
Trump bombs girl’s school in Iran, 51 dead.
At least 51 Killed in Israel-US Missile Strike On Girls School in Southern Iran - The Wire
Moderating:
OK, please take stock market effects to its own thread. It is not really a part of this one.
Arguably Libya’s Gaddafi was overthrown with just airpower, and Libya’s been a paradise ever since…
It sounds to me like one of Trump’s puppeteers thought that the Iranian regime was in danger of falling, and so convinced him to help prop it up. Which puppeteer, though, I’m not sure… Wealthy Iranian regime-members themselves? Russia, afraid of losing one of their few remaining allies?
Israel apparently confident they got Khamenei. Really don’t know what that would mean for Iranian politics, but mostly been seeing it’s more likely a hardliner takes over.
Iran has some pretty wild economic and environmental problems so that’s likely to constrain the options of a replacement anyway. Guess that’s a longer term problem than the next week and then months.
Good lord. What a sad state of affairs that he has caused so much turmoil that I barely remembered an unwarranted military strike from 8 months ago. 
He has so successfully flooded the zone that I have no expectation that he will ever be held accountable for any individual transgression.
Hey, look. It’s another generation of middle easterners pledging retribution against America for its terrorism.
Peace is surely at hand.
The Iranian Foreign Minister is on NBC now. He claims that Khamenei and everyone else at the top is just fine.
What a terrible, disastrous, stupid, atrocious, catastrophic war of choice. Not only a purpose-free war against a country that poses no threat to us, but our leaders are manifestly incompetent, dishonest, and malevolent. This will be absolutely horrible and my only (slim) hope is that the American people will be so strongly against it that political self preservation will kick in for congress and they will find a way to bind the president’s war making abilities.
I have tears in my eyes this morning.
From one old guy to the other old Dopers … remember this one?
Bombing for peace is like fucking for virginity.
[As of this moment, I don’t see a “breaking-news” tag, so … hope this is okay]
Moderating:
This is not a breaking news thread, discussions can range around the subject as long as it doesn’t become a distraction like the Market come Monday. Note, no one was even modnoted for that, just asked to stop.
I completely agree with the rest of your post, but I do have to disagree with this.
Iran is a country that has been agreed by almost all to be seeking nuclear capability. They are also thought to be seeking intercontinental delivery mechanisms. It is a general sponsor of terrorism and destabilizing forces in numerous regional neighbors. It remains dedicated to the elimination of Israel and the destruction of the Jewish people.
Imminent threat to the US? Probably not so much - although it’s still unclear how much Midnight Hammer actually set them back.
No threat to the US? Incorrect, they were/are a threat to US interests.
Amazing news if true, but we probably won’t know for a while.
They may very well try, but Khamenei had enough trouble keeping control of the country over the last couple weeks. Cracking down and imposing a new even more hard-line regime is something I’m sure the Iranian leadership would like to do, but it may well be far beyond their capacity.
Substitute “negligible” for “no” and I agree with iiandyii.
Moreover, I would stress the extent to which ANY threat could be lessened if we pursued non-military efforts - especially in light of our reprehensible track record. They have extremely good reasons to distrust and fear us.
What Epstein files?