(Quote below is from the ISW)
How are US fighter jets going to “protect shipping” when Iran reportedly has liberally salted the Strait of Hormuz with mines?
Presumably the hope would be by maintaining air dominance to an extent sufficient to permit the mines to be cleared and not replaced.
That would require the needed minesweepers be actually there instead of, say Malaysia.
No problem – all Trump has to do is demand that the NATO allies that he’s regularly insulted and shunned help him out in the Strait of Hormuz!
My only objection to this story is that I question whether there’s such a thing as a “US ally” any more.
The “leadership” exuded by this gang of criminal incompetents is … well, rather underwhelming! If there’s a way to do something stupid, counterproductive, and loathsome, by golly they’ll find it! Bonus points if it gets the US universally hated around the world.
From Google AI (not necessarily right, of course,) Saudi oil apparently accounts for only 6-8% of Europe’s oil imports. So while Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz may have some effect, Europe will never need to be cajoled into the strait to fix Trump’s mess. Plus, Iran has already said European ships can pass through.
That’s exactly it - according to this Perun video and the sources it cites, they haven’t done that so far. Hormuz is their economic life blood, and mines shut it off for everyone. If they can get away with it, they’d rather shut the strait with drones, because drones can target only specific ships you want to target.
CNN claims that according to US intelligence sources Iran has been laying mines in the Strait for well over a week now, though not necessarily to any great extent. Trump certainly seems all worked up about it, demanding NATO assistance as previously noted. Iranian tankers could still get through if they know where the mines are.
Given that ships generally aren’t flagged to the nation (or even region) related to the source and destination of their cargo, and contractual arrangements about who is carrying what for whom are extremely opaque, it’s not easy to see how Iran could reliably know which vessels were associated with those they consider to be The Enemy.
I wouldn’t want to be the insurer of or crew on any ship passing through Hormuz right now, no matter whose flag it was flying or cargo it was carrying.
Presumably they’d consider any tanker that isn’t part of their own shadow fleet to be fair game.
According to Velocity’s post Iran has said it will let European ships through. I’m just not sure how they could or whether they would stick to their word.
Given how it will play to the wider global audience, by which I mean how it will embarrass Trump, it’s a win-win situation for the Iranian government to allow those ships through.
As to how they’ll know whose ships they are, in this situation all that matters will be the flag the ship flies, in which country the vessel is registered.
That would give Iran no leverage, though, as VLCC and Suezmax ships are almost invariably flagged to third-party flags of convenience such as Liberia, Panama, Marshall Islands.
By the way, has there been any video statement or other proof of life by Supreme Leader Khamenei 2.0 since his election?
Hungary, El Salvador, Argentina, and, for certain issues, Russia. Unfortunately – or not – none of this countries has a functioning navy anymore.
Not that I know of. The weirdest theory I heard is that he is receiving treatment for injuries in Moscow. If true I wonder what would happen in case Ukraine found out the precise location and finished the job the USA started in Tehran.
Yes, but the tankers are loaded with Iranian crude. And they know who bought the oil. Who owns the vessel and/or who it’s leased to are of less relevance.
What Mops said.
Flags are near irrelevant to a determination of beneficial ownership and completely irrelevant to ownership of the cargo.
Is this correct? Ships carrying Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Bahraini and Qatari oil all go through Hormuz.
Not for the last three weeks.
Yes, but the Iranians will know which tankers have their oil, and the B/L will tell them sufficient detail to know which of those tankers if any they want to target. Whether they would target a tanker with say Kuwaiti cargo would be a determination by their war council.
They might even offer a deal to fellow Gulf states … provide us with the purchaser, destination and B/L details of any tanker loaded at your facilities and if they are approved by us, they can have safe passage and we won’t send more ordinance your way.
This article explains Iran’s selective blockade of Hormuz well.
Traffic is trickling through Strait of Hormuz: Who’s moving through