I doubt it will permanently force schools online (except for schools that end up closing in the near future, of which there may, unfortunately, be many). This isn’t going to go on forever, and the reason why universities aren’t already mostly online (which people ten years ago were predicting would have happened by now) is that there are many, many students who are either unsuited to online learning, or simply do not like it.
That said, here are a few observations from my perspective as a professor who had never taught online before, and then had to adapt to it very quickly:
– It isn’t as bad as I thought, and you actually can have a fair amount of student-teacher interaction through Zoom, Slack, discussion boards, etc. The limiting factor is mostly the size of the class, not the medium.
– But: There is a lot of stuff you truly cannot do online, and this is true of all subject fields, not just the obvious ones like lab sciences or studio art. I can’t do collaborative performance activities in my Shakespeare classes, I can’t give my Early Brit Lit students the experience of actually holding a page from a medieval manuscript in their hands, a whole lot of activities involving group discussion and interaction got a lot harder. Since we had nine weeks of face-to-face classes this semester before we went online, I’m not feeling the loss so much now, but I will if this goes on for all of fall semester.
– A lot of students really do not have good access to technology. Many are dependent on smartphones or cheap tablets; some have no wi-fi access at home and depend on public hotspots. These students are at serious risk of being unable to complete their education.
– Most universities these days (and I’m talking about Directional State U. or Not-So-Selective Liberal Arts College, not Harvard) are all about retention, retention, retention. Going online-only deals a massive blow to their ability to retain students. I have several who were passing when the course was face-to-face but have simply vanished since we went online. If this becomes a permanent feature – and especially if it’s coupled with a massive recession* that leads to lower tax revenue and funding cuts from state legislatures – it’s going to be UGLY, and a lot of institutions that were teetering on the margins are going to disappear. If we go back to face-to-face classes fairly quickly – whether because we get a vaccine or a really robust test-trace-and-isolate program, or whether people just say “Fuck it” and learn to live with the risks** – most of them will probably rebound.
- Historically, enrollment and tuition revenue often increase during recessions, although funding from other sources, like state budget appropriations and donations, dries up. If we’re looking at a a recession combined with extensive social distancing, though, enrollment and revenue from other sources could plummet. It’ll be a bloodbath.
** As a sixteenth-and-seventeenth-century lit scholar, I think it’s not only possible but likely that this is what will happen, and sooner than we think. People have lived with much, much higher chances of dying from epidemic disease than this. And they kept streaming into urban areas for centuries, knowing it would greatly increase their chances of dying of epidemic disease; the material and immaterial benefits of rubbing elbows with lots of other people, potentially infectious or not, were too high to pass up. And risks that are familiar don’t really register as much as the brand-new ones, and people adjust their baselines for what is familiar pretty quickly.