Well, they had compromised a few times in the past, but this time an openly Northern abolitionist had won the presidency, so that was the source of their timing.
I don’t agree that ALL the variables were lined up against them. They did manage to fight a long hard war after all.
Yes, and economic ties with the North, which the border states had more of. Also, Maryland was basically hijacked by Lincoln to keep it from seceding.
The point was that they did. The sentiment for compromise was still there. It was on the table.
Well, I found this from a book review on the subject:
"Just about every major northern newspaper editorialized in favor of the South’s right to secede. New York Tribune (2/5/60): “If tyranny and despotism justified the Revolution of 1776, then we do not see why it would not justify the secession of Five Millions of Southrons from the Federal Union in 1861.” Detroit Free Press (2/19/61): “An attempt to subjugate the seceded States, even if successful could produce nothing but evil - evil unmitigated in character and appalling in content.” New York Times (3/21/61): “There is growing sentiment throughout the North in favor of letting the Gulf States go.” "
http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/wew/articles/02/lincoln.html
I’m just saying the odds, while bad, were’nt as bad as a scratchoff. (BTW, where in the country or world do they call them “scratchoffs?” I know what you mean, but I haven’t heard the term.)
I think the idea was that the alternatives had been exhausted, true or not.
Also, once a few states left, the rest were tempted to join them, thinking they had to choose sides and would be better off with the South.
Again, hindsight is 20/20 - the Japanese looked pretty hard to beat on Dec. 8, 1941.