Thankfully Trump seemed to back of the cultural site threat earlier today. I wouldn’t mind seeing either of the following though.
This isn’t just about dick waving, dog wagging, or distractions, all of which are over-simplifications of the current tensions.
What we have is a regime in Iran that, as far as they are concerned, in a very similar situation to Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath party in 2002. The rhetoric is the same. The economic pressure is the same. The attempts to box Iran in is similar to how the US and its allies tried to keep Saddam contained. And now the US has actually assassinated one of its most visible public figures. Iran isn’t just acting out of ‘revenge;’ they are acting out of a credible fear for their continued existence as a nation-state. They are fighting for the defense of their homeland and they do not intend to go down without inflicting some pain in return.
OTOH, as I said on another thread, as much as I continue to believe that Trump himself does not want a war, he will easily be baited into one by Vladimir Putin, who knows that Iran’s potentially the mother of all foreign policy follies for the US, and he also depends on ideological nutjobs like Mike Pompeo and God knows who else. And once Trump is in the war, and once he gets his fingerprints on a conflict that ends up getting servicemen dead, this conflict will escalate to new heights. Trump has to win. Trump winning is what will ensure his political and legal survival. He will nuke Iran if he has to. And there’s no telling what Iran is willing to do to us in return.
If Trump starts lobbing nukes there’s not telling what the rest of the world will do to us.
Wonder how the Trumpists will react if the rest of the world imposes the sort of sanctions on us that we’ve imposed on others over the years.
To that point:
I wouldn’t rule out the use of proxies in the future.
And the simplistic idiots who support Trump are already hoping we “wipe Iran off the map” on social media. I tried to explain why that’s a very, very bad idea. I expect to get excoriated any moment now. So be it.
It has to be stated for the record, as many times as possible: the USA started this war.
Proxies are very much a part of the strategy. Hizbollah has already indicated that their goal is to drive the US out of the Middle East – not Iraq, but the entire ME. To me, that means they’re going to go back to the strategies of the 1980s and 90s - on steroids.
You say that like it’s unusual.
Good to see Pelosi out in front on this. While Trump and his confederacy of dumbshits are trying to figure out what to say and what to do, it’s President Pelosi - the real president - who is out front communicating to Iran that they should back down.
I think that any American bombings that kill civilians in Iraq or Iran will negate all the progress against terrorism over the past 2 decades, and probably exacerbate it. Trump probably greatly reduced how much our children and grandchildren will be able to enjoy their lives, and he needs to answer what this “imminent threat” was.
I don’t see either side having an off ramp here.
The off ramp was the nuclear framework that conservatives fucking lied their asses off to destroy.
I’m a Democrat, and it is silly for you to say, “President Pelosi”. Don’t go hyper crazy like some Republicans do. For crying out loud, we are the good guys, we are reasonable.
It also seems that Iran’s response is very carefully crafted. They demonstrated the ability to conduct targeted strikes, which means that US allies are under threat. If Trump sends bombs, allies will get hit. The logical conclusion in this case is the eviction of the US from the Middle East. Exactly what Iran wants. And more reasons for them and others to invest in nukes. I fear that the genie is already out the bottle.
I agree with your excellent summation. Trump/Pompeo have accomplished what Soleimani could not, which is to drive the USA out of the Middle East, and turned the Iranian civilian population against the USA.
They pointed “tens of rockets” at army bases occupied by Americans and lit the fuses. Looks like twelve hit. I’m interested to see how many hit something and what damage they did.
Why? This is probably just a little show with whatever nearby Iran friendly militants had handy. This is not Iran’s response.
This is not the entire response. This is Iran, in the short term, threading the needle between satisfying their domestic audience without taking action that might get their domestic audience bombed.
I’m betting Iran will ease up, hoping Trump will take the off-ramp, and defer other action until it’s more convenient for them.
They exaggerate military attacks. I don’t believe missiles are what they have handy. What else do they have? Phantom jets from the Shah?
It’s being reported that there were no American casualties. No need to respond in my opinion. Of course once an American is killed all bets are off.