That sounds like the kind of logic that says either I win the Nobel Prize next year or I don’t. So I figure I have a 50/50 chance.
While each individual incident may be a unique occurrence, we can look at overall patterns that emerge. In this case, the pattern suggests that a boyfriend killing his girlfriend is far more likely that somebody being abducted by aliens.
This is what I assumed at first, but watching that cop interview her on the bodycam video, where she describes her overwhelming anxiety and OCD, that was pretty heartbreaking for me because OCD and anxiety disorders run hard in our family, and I know how devastating it can be, both to the person having a panic attack and the people around them who try to calm and talk them down. Often frustratingly to no avail. The panic attack just has to burn itself out hours later.
I now think, still extremely likely he killed her, but not an insignificant chance she killed herself, and he may have some level of culpability. For example, driving away and abandoning her temporarily, then returning and finding she killed herself.
The police video has convinced me that this was probably an accident. Both these people are very emotional and excitable.
They probably were arguing and shoving each other. Maybe Gabby was trying to get in the van and got run down. Or maybe she fell on a trail.
Brian freaks out and stupidly leaves. Now he has family and a attorney telling him to stay quiet.
Just my theory. FWIW
People react irrationally under extreme stress.
Putting aside for a moment the tragedy that quite likely underlies this story, it seems to be turning into another Chandra Levy saga. Remember that one? Day after day after day of breathless reporting of non-news, until 9/11 finally gave the media something else to focus on.
This has turned into a national and even international news story far, far beyond its actual news import. I think the reason for it is that so many of us are what one wit once labelled “snoopopaths”. The word is intended to mean just what it sounds like – that so many of us are pathologically nosy, especially when there’s a hint of something prurient – and the media thrives on that attention to an extent that is just astonishing. For that reason alone I hope that this is resolved quickly. And I hope happily, but I’m very skeptical.
I’ve only been following this slightly; was she aware before starting this trip that she had anxiety and OCD? Because I imagine a trip like this is going to be particularly difficult with those disorders. (It would be stressful for someone with good mental health.)
I don’t know what happened , and I understand why he would not talk to the police even if he is innocent after her parents reported her missing 10 days after he returned without her on September 1. However, what makes me believe that she didn’t fall off a cliff or wander off in a wooded area and get lost or kill herself or just die in her sleep is that he didn’t call for the police or any other kind of help then.Not when he returned without her, not when her parents reported her missing - but whenever he noticed that something was wrong.
I haven’t seen a story blow up this big since Casey Anthony.
Very similar case. Mom leaves the family home with her 2 1/2 year old daughter. Two weeks later Mom shows up without the kid and telling a bunch of lies.
The mystery of what happened is very compelling.
Most likely a search warrant issued by a judge.
Just because it’s not legal for police to randomly impound and search a vehicle does not mean there is no way for them to get legal permission. In this case, a woman is missing and her significant other who is likely to have been the last person to have seen her is not cooperative. That’s probably enough for a search warrant. @flurb’s post covers this better than I did.
You seem quite certain. If you have actual evidence of the above please do contact the authorities.
Laudrie’s lawyer(s) and the police may, in fact, be negotiating how that is to occur. If so, it is unlikely they’d be publicizing the details of that planned meeting.
If you are yet another person with actual evidence of the above please do contact the authorities.
The problem is that if, hypothetically, that IS the truth, they argued and he left her, if she still turns up dead he will still be the first suspect even if someone else killed her, she committed suicide, a bear ate half of her, or whatever.
THEY had a “physical domestic incident” - from what I know BOTH of them were getting physical and the above video around 14 minutes in has one of the police officers remarking on the scratches Laundrie had on his face from Petito. Were those defensive wounds from a woman being hit, or did her causing him physical harm result in him pushing her away? We don’t know. But don’t make the common mistake that only men are the aggressors in domestic violence. Not every husband-beater becomes a murderer, either, for that matter.
What if Petito attempted to kill Laundrie and he killed her in genuine self-defense? Given how our society regards men as the always-guilty party in domestic violence that could be a problem. What if she was still alive when he drove off, but she died later?
We don’t know what went on. We do have a lot of assumptions, but we don’t actually know the truth here.
Because if she was alive and well wouldn’t she have contacted her family by now?
Even if it was, as you suggest, “an argument and a parting of ways” if she later disappeared Laundrie would still be the first suspect even if he had done nothing wrong.
I was responding to the contention that since there’s zero evidence of murder/foul play and a planned disappearance, both of those are equally likely.
You seem confused by the concept of “opinions”. You do have “snark” down OK, though.
But since you brought it up, even though I am sure (or “sure”) she is dead, I wouldn’t convict if the trial were today and I were on the jury.
I still feel my analogy applies. I do not feel the two possibilities are equally likely. I think if you looking at past incidents where a couple were together and one of them went missing and the other one offered no explanation of where the missing one was, you’d find that cases where the missing one was murdered by the other greatly outnumber cases where the couple had planned a disappearance of the missing one.
I’m not saying it’s a certainty that Laundrie murdered Petito. I’ve put forth an alternative scenario myself. But based on what we know right now, it’s the likeliest explanation.
I’m 100% agreeing with you. I think saying that a planned disappearance is as likely as foul play because we have no direct evidence of either is just nuts.
My original statement was intended to show the absurdity of just this “logic”
Okay, I see it now. Sorry for misinterpreting your post.
Just to clarify, cops can legally impound a vehicle without permission. In fact, that’s typical procedure when they have reasonable suspicion but are refused permission to search and are awaiting a search warrant.
In my work, I deal with many DV victims and perpetrators, and I’ve noticed a disproportionate number of the victims have mental health issues. I could speculate all day on what that might mean. Perhaps abusers deliberately choose victims who are more likely to feel dependent on them, or less likely to be believed by others? Perhaps those stigmatized due to their mental health are less likely to leave someone who mistreats them, thinking this is the best they can do? Or perhaps, as was pointed out upthread, DV isn’t always the vicious man beating up the helpless woman. Sometimes there’s mutual combat, and it’s less a power and control dynamic than it is two people who need to learn to use their words (but unfortunately, one of whom can do a lot more damage when he loses his temper.) Just something that came to mind when I watched part of the video.
Yeah.
I have some in-laws that would regularly put each other in the hospital, with the female half of the couple doing things like attacking the male half with improvised weapons while he was asleep. The male half seemed to lean more towards getting drunk or high and then lashing out. It was very much mutual abuse.
Assumptions can be a problem.
I never said as likely. Or more or less likely. Point is, all the evidence that points to foul play at this point… also points to an accident… or a cooked up scheme for social media buzz… or… or… or… etc.
And while I will happily grant that comparisons to past events with a similar fact pattern may be illuminating—perhaps even enough to go flinging about rough estimates of likelihood—I don’t see where this particular fact pattern has been represented. Mental illness, city dwellers going to remote areas they’ve likely never been to before, planned long distance trip, DV incident on the road, and no body and no story from the companion (not even a good/bad story, just nothing)… all of those seem relevant to me.
I am reasonably confident in ruling out alien abduction only because, in the entire history of mankind, we have no evidence of such a thing actually happening. So it doesn’t even make it into the list of possible explanations until such time as someone demonstrates it’s actually possible.
Ditto with a one-woman rapture (like certain evangelicals are supposed to believe in).
An interesting note here from a NY Times article on the case regarding the van as a “stolen” vehicle:
Josh Taylor, a spokesman for the department, said the police had no reason to arrest Mr. Laundrie, who returned to Florida in the van, which was registered to Ms. Petito and has not been reported stolen.
“The reality of that situation is that it was a common-use vehicle between the two of them,” Mr. Taylor said. The state law does not allow the police to arrest Mr. Laundrie any more than it allows for the arrest of a teenager found driving his or her parents’ car, he said.
ETA: I had been wondering by the police had not used the van as a pretext to arrest or bring him in for questioning.
Video from a woman who says she & her boyfriend picked up Brian L. as a hitchhiker on Aug 29.
Link.
Super weird