E-cigarettes are less dangerous than cigarettes but are equally effective at delivering nicotine. Levy et al. estimate that if smokers switched to e-cigarettes millions of life-years would be saved, even taking into account plausible rates of non-smokers who start to vape. (It’s worth noting that the authors are all cancer researchers, statisticians and epidemiologists concerned with reducing cancer deaths.)
[INDENT]A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.
Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.
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Now, obviously vaping is not preferable to not smoking or vaping. It’s still bad for you. But it’s a lot less bad than smoking, and regulations to make vaping less attractive will, naturally, make it less attractive for smokers as well:
Our results have important policy implications for flavor bans. According to our predictions, a ban on flavored e-cigarettes would drive smokers to combustible cigarettes, which have been found to be the more harmful way of getting nicotine (Goniewicz et al., 2017; Shahab et al., 2017). In addition, such a ban reduces the appeal of e-cigarettes to those who are seeking to quit; ecigarettes have proven useful as a cessation device for these individuals (Hartmann-Boyce et al., 2016; Zhu et al., 2017), and we find that quitters have a preference for flavored e-cigarettes.
It seems like bad policy to impose regulations to make vaping less attractive, in no small part because in doing so, you don’t just stop people from picking up vaping, you also stop people from quitting the (far more harmful) smoking.
Thoughts?