The problem is that Fairfax is running a lot lower than 2008. By my calculations 400,000 versus 500,000. So he has fewer votes to gain there. And Romney will probably still pick up some votes in Virginia Beach. I think he may have the edge.
Oh well it doesn’t matter. Ohio has been called and Obama has won.
Obama is now ahead in VA by around 16000 votes. He still has some votes in Fairfax and so he should be able to pull this off but it’s been a lot closer than I thought because turnout in Fairfax is down fairly dramatically by around 20% I think. Will be interesting to see what that is about.
There you go—Virginia has been called for Obama. Finally. We called it all right, Lantern. 
(An easy matter, since Nate the Deity had already called it.)
Yeah I was a bit freaked out by the Fairfax turnout but my early impression was right: Romney simply wasn’t making up enough ground compared to McCain.
I voted in Fairfax County, in a fairly affluent area, and did not see the crowds that had been reported at other sites in Virginia. However—on the TV news, around 9:00, I saw a scene from Prince William County. A high school corridor jam-packed with voters standing in line, almost all of whom were African-American. Our democracy owes so much to the voters in economically disadvantaged precincts especially in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, who were undersupplied and underserved with polling places in their areas, who stood in line for four hours to be able to cast their vote. Who valued their vote that highly. They are the true champions of democracy.
Edit: Although I got a paper ballot and was able to sit down and vote immediately, unlike the lines of people I saw standing in line for the machines.
And Tidewater! Virginia’s story is much more than the northern suburbs and Richmond.
Obama directed ground game to, and racked up big margins in, Newport News, Hampton, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Suffolk. Precincts in all of these had lines of people still waiting after the polls’ scheduled close.
That too. Winchester, Harrisonburg, Staunton, Lexington, Covington, Roanoke, Danville, Martinsville, and Radford. All blue cities ‘in’ red counties, and none of them in northern Virginia, or Richmond, or Tidewater.
I voted in Fairfax County too, and I waited over an hour yesterday morning to vote, in one of those lines that snaked down one hallway and up another before finally ending at the polls. I don’t know if that qualifies as crowded, but it’s definitely the longest I’ve waited to vote before.