Virginia county by county analysis

OK prepare to geek up.

I have generally found that doing a county by county analysis of the current election versus the last one is a pretty clear guide to what’s happening in a state race. Here are the 2012 results and here are the 2008 results.

Romney needs to run 6% more than McCain to beat Obama.

Focus on the counties with lots of people and with a high percentage of votes counted.

Also keep an eye on Intrade. I am guessing there is some website which is doing a county-by-county analysis somewhere. Please link if you know of one.

I have seen blue turn red but not the other way around on the current projections :smack:

Here are some quick numbers:
Nelson 100 in Romney 48% McCain 45%
Augusta 88in R71 M69.5
Prince Edward 100in R43 M44.5

My general sense is Obama is doing well but it’s early.

I think I will focus on the counties with 100% in no matter how small.
Bland 100in R73 M69
Lunenberg 100in R51 M51

Bath 100in R57 M56
Richmond (a very small county not the city) 100 in R57 M56

Louisa 100in R56 M53
Powhatan 100in R72 M70

Note these are mostly small counties but still it doesn’t appears as if Romney is running 6% ahead of McCain.

Halifax 100in R52 M51
Isle of Wight 100in R57 M56

Culpeper 100 R57 M54
Fauquier 100 R59 M56

OK a good result for Romney: Tazewell 100in R78 M66. So 12 ahead of McCain. Some more of these and it will definitely look better for Romney.

Lee 100in R71 M63
Another good result for Romney. He seems to be running well ahead of McCain on the western tip of VA but nowhere else. I don’t think it will be enough.

Not 100% in but in Richmond city which is obviously very blue and relatively large Romney is running at 22% compared to 20% for McCain with 83% in so it doesn’t appear he is making up much ground in blue counties either.

Chesterfield 100in R53 M53
Southamption 100in R51 M51

Great, informative thread. Thanks!

I agree. Thanks for doing the yeoman’s work Lantern.

Greenesville 100%in R36% M35%

Fairfax is by far the largest county in the state. Only 29% in but so far Romney is at 41% versus 39% for McCain.

I noticed as early as 8:00 EST that practically all the rural counties of Virginia had reported in. At that point Romney was leading. Then came the news that Virginia won’t finish reporting for hours yet. All those lines out the door? In Democratic-majority areas—mainly Northern Virginia and the Richmond area. Later Virginia returns have got to favor Obama. (Was that Winchester I saw a blue speck in a red county? Wow.) Virginia has an awful lot of independent cities, which are in effect so many mini-counties, making the count more complicated.

With all the news about Republican voter suppression, it feels mighty suspicious that Democratic-majority areas are so sadly underserved with voting facilities that are underequipped to handle the crush of humanity.

Westmoreland 100in R46 M44
Essex 100in R46 M44

I am looking at the bigger counties too even though they aren’t 100% in and Romney is doing well in a few like Virginia Beach where he is 6 ahead of McCain. But that’s what he needs in the whole state and except for a few small counties on the Western tip he is not doing it. It will be difficult for him to win.

Fairfax is now 63% in and Romney remains at 41% versus 39% for McCain. The blue counties are now counting and that’s why Obama’s closing the gap in the total and will probably overtake Romney shortly.

OK I haven’t looked much at absolute numbers but turnout in Fairfax and Richmond seem to be a whole lot lower than 2008. That could make things very close. I have probably been understimating Romney’s chances.

Yes, I expect the overtaking to register any minute now.