I have generally found that doing a county by county analysis of the current election versus the last one is a pretty clear guide to what’s happening in a state race. Here are the 2012 results and here are the 2008 results.
Romney needs to run 6% more than McCain to beat Obama.
Focus on the counties with lots of people and with a high percentage of votes counted.
Also keep an eye on Intrade. I am guessing there is some website which is doing a county-by-county analysis somewhere. Please link if you know of one.
Lee 100in R71 M63
Another good result for Romney. He seems to be running well ahead of McCain on the western tip of VA but nowhere else. I don’t think it will be enough.
Not 100% in but in Richmond city which is obviously very blue and relatively large Romney is running at 22% compared to 20% for McCain with 83% in so it doesn’t appear he is making up much ground in blue counties either.
I noticed as early as 8:00 EST that practically all the rural counties of Virginia had reported in. At that point Romney was leading. Then came the news that Virginia won’t finish reporting for hours yet. All those lines out the door? In Democratic-majority areas—mainly Northern Virginia and the Richmond area. Later Virginia returns have got to favor Obama. (Was that Winchester I saw a blue speck in a red county? Wow.) Virginia has an awful lot of independent cities, which are in effect so many mini-counties, making the count more complicated.
With all the news about Republican voter suppression, it feels mighty suspicious that Democratic-majority areas are so sadly underserved with voting facilities that are underequipped to handle the crush of humanity.
I am looking at the bigger counties too even though they aren’t 100% in and Romney is doing well in a few like Virginia Beach where he is 6 ahead of McCain. But that’s what he needs in the whole state and except for a few small counties on the Western tip he is not doing it. It will be difficult for him to win.
Fairfax is now 63% in and Romney remains at 41% versus 39% for McCain. The blue counties are now counting and that’s why Obama’s closing the gap in the total and will probably overtake Romney shortly.
OK I haven’t looked much at absolute numbers but turnout in Fairfax and Richmond seem to be a whole lot lower than 2008. That could make things very close. I have probably been understimating Romney’s chances.