This is really just MPISMS post, but it’s about Electoral Math so I’m in the Elections forum. Please forgive the lack of thoughtful content, if this forum didn’t exist I’d have put it in the forum dedicated to lack of thoughtful content.
It has really just struck me how much a Blue Virginia sucks for the GOP. I enjoyed the Blue Virginia as a pleasant surprise in 2008, but it’s looking like a reliable Blue State this year and- at the very least- a reliable Swing State for years to come.
I played with an Electoral College Map giving Romney the three palest blue of Blue States according to Nate Silver’s current percentages (Florida 63.3%, Colorado 64.2%, and Iowa 73.6%). I let Romney keep his 65.3% Red North Carolina, and I gave Romney Ohio.
With Colorado, Iowa, Florida, and OHIO, Romney still loses if Obama wins Virginia.
That kinda blows my mind. The Democrat can lose Florida AND Colorado AND Ohio but still win the election. Flipping Virginia really is a major game-changer, and I just never really recognized how significant the flip really is.
I think Obama’s far enough ahead in Ohio that Romney’s going to look elsewhere for electoral votes- and if Obama wins Ohio, he just needs to win a single other state between IA, CO, NV, FL, and VA- and he’s ahead in all of these. It’s not over, but electorally Romney’s path to victory is very, very difficult.
Oh, I’m aware of how favorable Ohio is to Obama right now. But since I was marveling at the impact a Blue Virginia has on the GOP, I gave Ohio to Romney as a way to illustrate my point about how much it sucks for them to not have Virginia as a guaranteed Red. It’s a Thread about Virginia, I painted a Red Ohio to highlight the significance of Virginia.
The very face that the Democrat could still win with NEITHER Ohio NOR FLorida kinda blows my mind.
I wonder if the mandatory vaginal probe legislation pushed by the Right at the state level has contributed to this trend. I know there has been a lot of backlash nationally.
If it is mandatory it would be legitimate rape so the woman couldn’t be pregnant. It is a way to reduce those false abortions the Republicans are crowing about!
North Carolina too, the GOP is only ahead by 1% there. At the very least the GOP has to fight to keep NC, a state they could take for granted until 2004.
Texas ‘could’ go the same route of becoming a swing state if emigration from different parts of the country, higher minority populations and more voter registration efforts take place there.
Yeah, I’ll be surprised if Obama takes North Carolina again but the fact that it’s even in play means Romney must have to spend money there- money he’d no doubt prefer to spend elsewhere.
Yep, I’ve thought for weeks that Romney absolutely has to win the trifecta of Florida, Ohio AND Virginia to take the Electoral College. It’s true there are a few other, very narrow paths to 270 for him, but they are somewhat unlikely, at this point.
So yes, if the GOP had been hoping Virginia could be reliably red, they could concentrate on Florida (hat’s basically 50-50 at the moment), Ohio, and turning Iowa or Colorado their way. A blue Virginia (anybody else hear the dulcet tones of Elvis when you hear that phrase? “I’ll have a blue … Virginia … without votes”) means Romney has to do all that and a bunch more. Pretty tough sledding.
The southwest too. Kerry lost the southwest (New mexico, Nevada, Colorado) by about 2-5%, but now they are leaning blue the last 2 elections. Had Kerry won the southwest 3 states, he could’ve lost ohio and still won the election.
So you have 3 areas that have all moved left. NC, VA and the southwest. Plus New Hampshire (had NH gone Gore in 2000, Gore would’ve won w/o Florida). Obama is currently ahead by 6 there.
So a lot of areas are moving left, at least for presidential elections in recent history. I’m not sure if this is a long term switch, but I’m hoping so. I think it is a mix of women leaving the GOP, more minority voters, more young voters and more people leaving blue states and moving to red states like VA and NC.
That’s just a snapshot of the immediate effects of Romney’s strong debate performance. Give it a few more days and it’ll probably revert back to where it was pre-debate before all of this “Romney has won” and “Obama is doomed” nonsense started sweeping through the media.
Already you’ve got another post-debate poll showing Obama regaining a lead in a different battleground state here. The big question mark, as I’ve been saying in other threads, will be how the debate has affected Ohio.
Yes, there’s been a post-Debate bump for Romney. But I didn’t quote any polls, I was using Nate Silver’s projections- the numbers in the OP accurately matched the numbers he was giving at the time I posted (he has since dropped Virginia down to 65.7% Blue).
However, this is not a Thread predicting whether or not Virginia will go Blue. It is a Thread about how much a hypothetical Blue Virginia so drastically changes the game for the GOP.
Maybe you should have read Silver’s blog post Saturday also. He expects a bigger swing for Romney if current trends continue.
Right now you are extrapolating based on a sample size of one, which is totally lame.
Of course, considering how many federal employees live in Virginia, it is hardly surprising that a lot of them will vote for Democrats. They know where their bread is buttered.
Oh, it has to be about money for someone to vote Democrat now?? So if the Repubs lose VA it was because we are all mindless sheep sucking on the teat of the government, and not because the Republican party represents ideals that dont represent us in VA?
The fact that Virginia seems to have become competitive is interesting enough as it represents a place the GOP has to spend money today that they didn’t in 2004 and years prior. Even if Romney wins it, the demographics look like it’ll remain a battleground in future elections which is pretty noteworthy.
Maybe Romney will win the fight but two cycles ago there never would have been a fight or anything close to it.
I was playing around with the 270toWin map today. Decided to give some “obvious” ones to Obama, namely Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. If Obama takes Nevada and Colorado too then Romney still loseseven taking all 4 of Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.