I have no money to bet and I don’t drink, but after all, the President’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections. I think three straight elections of gains for the Republicans would be a lot.
In case anyone wants to handicap the race, I’ll kick in with the open Senate Seats for 2006:
Democrats:
Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI)
Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM)
Byrd, Robert - (D - WV)
Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA)
Carper, Thomas - (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY)
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND)
Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) ?(running for Gov. in 2005)
Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) * (not seeking reelection)
Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA)
Jeffords, James - (I - VT)
Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA)
Kohl, Herb - (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT)
Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) *
Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) * (outgoing Governor Mike Johanns may run)
Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD)
Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) *
Republicans:
Allen, George - (R - VA)
Bailey Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX) *(may run for Gov. 2005)
Burns, Conrad - (R - MT)
Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI) *
Ensign, John - (R - NV) *
Frist, Bill - (R - TN) *(Frist may retire; Harold Ford, Jr. may run)
Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT)
Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent - (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard - (R - IN)
Santorum, Rick - (R - PA)
Snowe, Olympia (R - ME)
Talent, Jim - (R - MO)
Thomas, Craig (R - WY)
Other
Jeffords, Jim - (I - VT)
I starred the seats in viable play; details noted with early info.
IMO, the Dems should keep an eye on the Nelson Senators (FL, NE) to save, and the Ensign/NV, Chafee/RI seats to gain. Texas and Tennessee are still wild cards. Anything I’m missing? Anyone want to tackle the House prospects this early?
I was about to post something similar:
From here we get the senate seats that are up for grabs in 2006, broken down party lines, and from here we get the percent of the vote the senator got when he/she last got elected.
Republicans Democrats Independent
100 Arizona 61 California 72 Vermont
67 Indiana 65 Connecticut
69 Maine 56 Delaware
68 Mississippi 52 Florida
57 Missouri 75 Hawaii
52 Montana 63 Maryland
58 Nevada 85 Massachusetts
63 Ohio 51 Michigan
54 Pennsylvani 53 Minnesota
58 RhodeIsland 51 Nebraska
67 Tennessee 52 NewJersey
67 Texas 62 NewMexico
68 Utah 56 NewYork
52 Virginia 62 NorthDakota
77 Wyoming 50 Washington
79 WestVirginia
62 Wisconsin
To see how vulnerable the two parties are we calculate the following quantities for each of them:
Republicans Democrats
Mean of percent of the vote = 65 61
Median of percent of the vote = 67 61
Std of percent of the vote = 12 10
number of states with < 51% = 0 1
number of states with < 53% = 2 5
number of states with < 55% = 3 6
It seems to me that the Democrats are quite a bit more vulnerable than the Republicans and it seems more likely that they’ll lose net Senate seats.
Also, Jeffords from VT was originally elected as a Republican, so if his original voters vote Republican again, then the Republicans gain one seat even with no other race changing parties.
Thanks for the cites and analysis. Can you do the House? Please? 
Should any party shift/changes from the 2004 election results be factored into the analysis? How would you do that?
Statistical analysis of party voting trends aside, I think Jeffords will keep his seat. Anyone disagree?
Since you asked nicely
I got the following results from Wikipedia
Republicans Democrats
63 Alabama1 73 Alabama5
72 Alabama2 75 Alabama7
61 Alabama3 70 Arizona4
75 Alabama4 61 Arizona7
100 Alabama6 67 Arkansas1
72 AlaskaAtLarge 58 Arkansas2
59 Arizona1 100 Arkansas4
59 Arizona2 67 California1
80 Arizona3 72 California5
60 Arizona5 72 California6
79 Arizona6 76 California7
60 Arizona8 85 California8
59 Arkansas3 84 California9
67 California2 65 California10
62 California3 68 California12
65 California4 71 California13
61 California11 70 California14
66 California19 72 California15
73 California21 71 California16
100 California22 67 California17
63 California24 67 California18
65 California25 54 California20
54 California26 63 California23
68 California40 62 California27
83 California41 71 California28
68 California42 65 California29
61 California44 71 California30
66 California45 81 California31
61 California46 85 California32
65 California48 89 California33
62 California49 74 California34
58 California50 80 California35
69 California52 62 California36
51 Colorado4 75 California37
71 Colorado5 100 California38
60 Colorado6 61 California39
55 Colorado7 66 California43
54 Connecticut2 60 California47
52 Connecticut4 62 California51
60 Connecticut5 67 California53
69 DelawareAtLarge 73 Colorado1
74 Florida1 67 Colorado2
100 Florida4 50 Colorado3
66 Florida5 73 Connecticut1
64 Florida6 72 Connecticut3
100 Florida7 62 Florida2
61 Florida8 100 Florida3
100 Florida9 86 Florida11
69 Florida10 100 Florida17
65 Florida12 100 Florida19
55 Florida13 70 Florida20
67 Florida14 100 Florida23
65 Florida15 67 Georgia2
68 Florida16 63 Georgia3
65 Florida18 64 Georgia4
72 Florida21 100 Georgia5
63 Florida22 52 Georgia12
100 Florida24 100 Georgia13
100 Florida25 63 Hawaii1
100 Georgia1 63 Hawaii2
100 Georgia6 85 Illinois1
100 Georgia7 88 Illinois2
76 Georgia8 74 Illinois3
74 Georgia9 84 Illinois4
100 Georgia10 76 Illinois5
57 Georgia11 86 Illinois7
70 Idaho1 52 Illinois8
71 Idaho2 75 Illinois9
56 Illinois6 69 Illinois12
64 Illinois10 61 Illinois17
59 Illinois11 68 Indiana1
65 Illinois13 54 Indiana7
69 Illinois14 55 Iowa3
61 Illinois15 55 Kansas3
69 Illinois16 59 Kentucky6
70 Illinois18 79 Louisiana2
69 Illinois19 60 Maine1
54 Indiana2 58 Maine2
69 Indiana3 67 Maryland2
70 Indiana4 63 Maryland3
72 Indiana5 70 Maryland4
67 Indiana6 69 Maryland5
53 Indiana8 74 Maryland7
49 Indiana9 75 Maryland8
55 Iowa1 100 Massachusetts1
59 Iowa2 100 Massachusetts2
61 Iowa4 71 Massachusetts3
63 Iowa5 78 Massachusetts4
91 Kansas1 67 Massachusetts5
56 Kansas2 70 Massachusetts6
66 Kansas4 74 Massachusetts7
67 Kentucky1 100 Massachusetts8
68 Kentucky2 100 Massachusetts9
60 Kentucky3 64 Massachusetts10
54 Kentucky4 65 Michigan1
100 Kentucky5 67 Michigan5
78 Louisiana1 69 Michigan12
32 Louisiana3 79 Michigan13
100 Louisiana4 84 Michigan14
59 Louisiana5 71 Michigan15
72 Louisiana6 58 Minnesota4
39 Louisiana7 70 Minnesota5
76 Maryland1 66 Minnesota7
68 Maryland6 65 Minnesota8
69 Michigan2 58 Mississippi2
67 Michigan3 64 Mississippi4
64 Michigan4 75 Missouri1
65 Michigan6 53 Missouri3
58 Michigan7 66 Missouri4
61 Michigan8 55 Missouri5
58 Michigan9 66 Nevada1
69 Michigan10 75 NewJersey1
57 Michigan11 67 NewJersey6
60 Minnesota1 69 NewJersey8
57 Minnesota2 67 NewJersey9
65 Minnesota3 97 NewJersey10
54 Minnesota6 59 NewJersey12
79 Mississippi1 76 NewJersey13
80 Mississippi3 69 NewMexico3
65 Missouri2 56 NewYork1
64 Missouri6 66 NewYork2
71 Missouri7 63 NewYork4
72 Missouri8 71 NewYork5
64 Missouri9 100 NewYork6
64 MontanaAtLarge 80 NewYork7
54 Nebraska1 80 NewYork8
61 Nebraska2 70 NewYork9
87 Nebraska3 91 NewYork10
67 Nevada2 94 NewYork11
55 Nevada3 85 NewYork12
63 NewHampshire1 81 NewYork14
59 NewHampshire2 90 NewYork15
65 NewJersey2 95 NewYork16
63 NewJersey3 75 NewYork17
67 NewJersey4 70 NewYork18
58 NewJersey5 70 NewYork21
57 NewJersey7 67 NewYork22
68 NewJersey11 50 NewYork27
54 NewMexico1 72 NewYork28
60 NewMexico2 63 NorthCarolina1
63 NewYork3 62 NorthCarolina2
59 NewYork13 62 NorthCarolina4
67 NewYork19 72 NorthCarolina7
66 NewYork20 67 NorthCarolina12
71 NewYork23 59 NorthCarolina13
57 NewYork24 60 NorthDakotaAtLarge
91 NewYork25 100 Ohio6
56 NewYork26 68 Ohio9
51 NewYork29 60 Ohio10
71 NorthCarolina3 100 Ohio11
59 NorthCarolina5 67 Ohio13
73 NorthCarolina6 77 Ohio17
55 NorthCarolina8 66 Oklahoma2
70 NorthCarolina9 58 Oregon1
64 NorthCarolina10 71 Oregon3
55 NorthCarolina11 61 Oregon4
60 Ohio1 53 Oregon5
72 Ohio2 86 Pennsylvania1
62 Ohio3 88 Pennsylvania2
59 Ohio4 94 Pennsylvania11
67 Ohio5 100 Pennsylvania12
65 Ohio7 56 Pennsylvania13
69 Ohio8 100 Pennsylvania14
65 Ohio12 59 Pennsylvania17
63 Ohio14 64 RhodeIsland1
62 Ohio15 75 RhodeIsland2
67 Ohio16 63 SouthCarolina5
66 Ohio18 67 SouthCarolina6
60 Oklahoma1 53 SouthDakotaAtLarge
82 Oklahoma3 55 Tennessee4
78 Oklahoma4 69 Tennessee5
66 Oklahoma5 64 Tennessee6
72 Oregon2 74 Tennessee8
60 Pennsylvania3 82 Tennessee9
63 Pennsylvania4 72 Texas9
88 Pennsylvania5 58 Texas15
51 Pennsylvania6 68 Texas16
59 Pennsylvania7 51 Texas17
55 Pennsylvania8 89 Texas18
69 Pennsylvania9 66 Texas20
93 Pennsylvania10 67 Texas25
59 Pennsylvania15 63 Texas27
65 Pennsylvania16 59 Texas28
63 Pennsylvania18 94 Texas29
91 Pennsylvania19 93 Texas30
88 SouthCarolina1 55 Utah2
65 SouthCarolina2 69 Virginia3
100 SouthCarolina3 60 Virginia8
70 SouthCarolina4 59 Virginia9
74 Tennessee1 62 Washington1
79 Tennessee2 64 Washington2
65 Tennessee3 62 Washington3
100 Tennessee7 69 Washington6
61 Texas1 81 Washington7
55 Texas2 63 Washington9
86 Texas3 68 WestVirginia1
69 Texas4 65 WestVirginia3
64 Texas5 63 Wisconsin2
66 Texas6 56 Wisconsin3
64 Texas7 70 Wisconsin4
69 Texas8 86 Wisconsin7
84 Texas10
77 Texas11
72 Texas12
92 Texas13
100 Texas14
58 Texas19
62 Texas21
55 Texas22
69 Texas23
64 Texas24
66 Texas26
65 Texas31
54 Texas32
68 Utah1
61 Utah3
80 Virginia1
55 Virginia2
65 Virginia4
64 Virginia5
100 Virginia6
76 Virginia7
64 Virginia10
60 Virginia11
63 Washington4
60 Washington5
52 Washington8
58 WestVirginia2
65 Wisconsin1
66 Wisconsin5
67 Wisconsin6
70 Wisconsin8
55 WyomingAtLarge
And, as before, to see how vulnerable the two parties are we calculate the following quantities for each of them:
Republicans Democrats
Mean of percent of the vote = 68 72
Median of percent of the vote = 65 69
Std of percent of the vote = 13 13
number of states with < 51% = 3 2
number of states with < 53% = 8 5
number of states with < 55% = 17 10
From the above it seems that the Republicans are more vulnerable than the Democrats, and it seems more likely that they’ll lose net House seats.
For a more complete estimate, I think they should be factored into the analysis, but that would be very complex (and I would need much more data to make a decent estimate).
Based on the above, it seems like there is a good chance that the Democrats will gain some seats in the House, which would make you lose your bet (since you say “in the House or the Senate”)
You’re a doll, Polerius. Thanks again.
I’ll try to sniff out the “hot” seats and 2004 party shift data.
Those statistical analyses don’t tell the whole story though, Polerius.
The House races are for districts increasingly drawn to exclude one party or the other. Gains here typically happen by slowly picking off seats, and by redistricting driven by the decennial census.
Senate races, being statewide, can swing much more easily.
I’ll consider taking Bricker up on his offer if I hear more about what he’s willing to bet.
What I’m guessing Bricker means is that the Dems will fail to make net gains in either house of Congress. Which would mean that anyone taking his bet would win if the Dems had a net gain in either house.
Rick, care to confirm or clarify? If I’ve interpreted you correctly, I’d like a piece of this action. Since you haven’t yet collected on our 2004 electoral bet, we could just go double or nothing.
Will Diebold be counting the votes? In that case, I’ll pass.
Can you refresh my recollection? We’re not on for any bet unless I’ve positively acknowledged it.
I’m picturing net. A given seat my flip from R to D, but the net total for Democrats will not increase in either house.
Yes.
Then I lose.
We can discuss stakes. Money or single malt scotch, as a starting point.
Stake your 2008 vote?
As one of the few on the SDMB who has actually bested Bricker at one of his wagers, I will step up to the plate. Let us make the stakes that which you value highest: $100 of cold, hard cash. The only way to make a lawyer weep is to take his money.
As a conservative republican, I admire Dean altho he hates republicans and everything they stand for…his words.
Dean is a breath of fresh air compared to the leading contenders for the presidential nominee of the democratic party in 2008. He is not pretentious, does not switch his ideas whenever it is politically indicated to do so.
The 2nd term of almost all presidents wind up negative and I think that if the Democrats play it smart, “honest” and shrewd, they can win…
I polled a number of fellow conservatives and although they don’t agree with Howard Dean, he sticks by his beliefs and they, as I, admire that.
From your lips to Dean’s ears, Diogenes. I hope and pray that this is the message the Democratic party chooses to make the main portion of their campaign.
Well, heck. I’ve been doing the electoral math and I’d like to make a wager – I’ve even got two bottles with you in mind – I think either would make worthy stakes. But then I come across threads like this and I lose my nerve. The Democrats are just. not. getting. it.
Does the party chairman even make much of a difference? I’d bet dollars to donuts the vast majority of Americans cannot name either party chairman. And how much influence can the chairman have over 435 different Representative candidates and how they run their campaigns, and 33/34 Senatorial candidates?
You are right.But this is only part of the story. All the statistics mentioned above are nice (and thanks to the Dopers who work so hard to calculate 'em!)–but the real question isnt statistics, or who is party chairman.
There is a basic problem with off-year elections: they are boring. Turnout is minimal, and the public just doesnt care. We won’t see any passionate debate from either side, no large demonstrations, etc. So , despite what all the pundits will declare–off-year elections tell us nothing about the mood of the country . Most Americans voters can’t even tell you how many of their own state’s congressmen belong to each party, and they aren’t going to get emotionally involved no matter who wins.
Whether the Dems pick up a seat or two in 2006 will be important only to the professional columnists. It won’t serve as any indication of how the country will vote for President in 2008.
(And the 2008 election will be pretty boring too–I predict that the major issues will be social security , health care, etc, and the Democratic candidate will probably win.But that’s a different thread…)