Some wagering discussion re: Obama’s re-election got started in a GD thread, so I thought I would continue it here, and propose some action of my own.
I bet that Obama will not be re-elected in 2012. I am willing to take up to $1000 of action on this bet (meaning I am willing to lose up to $1000). And I want 15 to 1 on my bet (meaning that if you want to be paid $10 if you win, then you must pay me $150 if I win).
The winning condition for you is that Obama is sworn in as President for his second term in office in the presidential term that immediately follows the present term. If that happens, you win. If that doesn’t happen for any reason whatsoever, then I win.
I may be willing to take more than $1000 of action if I get better odds.
Here is the most current line I could find on this:
I don’t gamble much, but I’d probably take at least 100 worth of action at 15:1 that Obama won’t be re-elected.
If I were dumb enough to take a sucker bet (in terms of odds) for* Obama then I’d want some clause on what happens if he decides not to run or if something untoward happens. A lot of nutjobs out there, you know, sipping tea and wearing funny hats.
*ETA: meant the same bet as the OP is offering with a nice return.
Yeah, but you scare people away with stupid-bad odds like that. If people hear 5:1 they might negotiate to 2:1, but when I hear 15:1 I assume you are not serious and are just jerking people around to make some sort of point.
Meh. Lots of people in the GD thread are predicting a second term for Obama. I wanted to give them an opportunity to put their money where their mouth is. Also, I’d be taking substantial payment risk, so if I did get $1000 action at 15 to 1, I’d probably be lucky to actually collect more than $1000.
It depends on the price tag, doesn’t it? Are you saying there is no such thing as price gouging? All prices are fair?
Oh, wait, you probably do.
Your action is not worth anyone’s while. You are asking them to risk substantially more than anything they stand to gain, while simultaneously capping yourself. Your odds are a ripoff, a sucker bet, not because anyone is particularly scared that Obama will lose, but because your proffered returns are so paltry. We can get substantially better lines elsewhere. Why would we waste anytime with your amateur bullshit?
Not only that, but you want to claim victory and collect money if something untoward happens to Obama, which is not only unsavory and unsporting, but belies your claim that you’re trying to make rhetorical point about confidence in Obama’s re-election.
Tell you what, Rand Rover: I’ll give 1000 to 1 odds that the Sun will rise tomorrow (relative to the reference frame of the Earth, of course). If it does, you pay me $10, and if it doesn’t, I’ll pay you $10,000. Deal?