What is going to happen to Wagner PMC now that its soldiers have been offered the choice of joining the regular army or returning to Russia as a civilian?
Seems that Wagner has been too useful to the Kremlin to simply discard. After all, there are coups to be staged in Africa, and dictators to be supported. Wagner’s involvement in these sorts of activities provided a fig leaf of deniability when it comes to the actions of the Russian state.
I wonder if that option of returning to Russia as a civilian includes being immediately drafted.
I’m sure there’s no call for that. Russia has plenty of people with combat training and experience. No need to trouble those poor beleaguered souls with additional combat duty any further. That would be downright…inconsiderate.
Not exactly.
Wagner is probably too much damaged goods to salvage at this point. The Kremlin’s big concern is how much of the rebellion virus is still within Wagner’s corporate culture and corporate genes. It’s easier to raze it completely than to repopulate it with 100% fresh people all at once.
But there are already many other less famous PMCs in Russia. One of those other ones will simply be given those other sub rosa tasks Wagner used to do. Like Wagner, that other PMC will be decapitated at some future date if it’s head honcho gets too uppity. And now that honcho knows how that story ends.
Sun Tzu said “Keep your friends close; keep your enemies closer.” Many of them were prisoners who were offered a job at Wagner instead of rotting in jail. If they aren’t going back to jail, keeping them in Russia will make it easier to keep an eye on them.
An interesting article.
If they do, they’re the only one.
Very well-said. Thank you.
I doubt this whole thing is 4D chess to emplace Prigo & Wagner as a 5th column in Belarus. I see simple power politics, albeit between not 2 factions but 12. Five of which I have no idea who/what they are, I just assume they’re in there alongside the other obvious protagonists.
What I meant to suggest was simply that any Prigo v2 heading a Wagner v2 could be sure that getting uppity will get hammered. Probably better to get rich on plunder & graft more quietly.
Turning to Prigo himself, I don’t see too many ways for him to end up as anything but under de facto house arrest, unable to exert power in Belarus without risk f assassination. Heck he may not be able to leave a very luxurious estate that still amounts to a prison no matter how nice the wine or antiques or how many Belarussian virgins he can deflower in his chambers.
More conflict in the information space?
Russian military forces allegedly raid Wagner bases in Syria, reports Saudi news channel (msn.com)