If we’re going to discuss the willingness effect (don’t know the technical name), then I think we also have to consider that people who really support Trump would be more likely to take the survey than anyone who weakly supports or weakly doesn’t support him. And we can’t be sure that those numbers even out. Also, how many Never-Trumpers are the type not to want to answer phone surveys–or even talk on the phone in general? Could that percengate be higher than the Always Trumpers?
I do think that phone surveys favor older people, at the very least.
The best estimate of the Kung-Fu Monkey crazification factor is actually 54%, not 27%. You only get the 27% figure if you assume that all of the crazies voted for Keyes. The safer assumption, though, is that they voted essentially randomly, half for each candidate.
Those who either do not follow any news or only Fox ‘news’ are a substantial part of the electorate. Neither of those groups probably have any conception of what actually happened in Helsinki.
The 33% are the always Trumpers in a good economy; cut that in half once the economy crashes and burns to the ground, and erases their life savings. You’ll still have 16-17% who are always Trumpers then but only half of those would admit to it; the other 16-17% will probably refused to admit they ever voted for Trump and claim they voted for Ted Cruz.
Trump’s biggest internal threat is his sheer incompetence and idiocy with the economy, which is now beginning to come into clearer view. Republicans know that they can get away with a lot of economic lies and bullshit analogies and syllogisms because culprits aren’t always so obvious in a downturn. But blowing up the entire system has an obvious culprit: Trump and his enablers. And they’re beginning to see the warning signs.
But I doubt that there’s a goddamn one of them who can pull themselves out of Trumptanic’s undertow. They’re clearly - and rightly - concerned about Trump’s economic plans, but they have only them-damn-selves to blame. They hitched themselves to Trumponomics when they used him to pass their tax cuts and tried to kill Obamacare. They were dead silent on trade because they believed he was bluffing. They deferred to Trump on economics. The Senators and Reps in Farm Country are fucking fucked. And they know it, even if they’re not feeling the consequences.
Trump’s response will be to chase the problem with more bad money. And he will dare Republicans and Democrats to cut funding, because he can blame them if they do. And they won’t, because in the end, the Republicans are the party of oligarchs and kleptocrats.
Except skipping isn’t answering “no opinion” - it’s either letting the call go to voicemail or saying “no, I don’t want to take a survey.” If you’re already taking a survey and for some reason don’t want to answer, there’s often a “prefer not to answer” option. Even if this one didn’t, why take the poll and then not answer the questions?
Yes, all of Keye’s voters were crazy. I’m not disputing that. But the key is, a lot of Obama’s voters were crazy, too. Just because there were good reasons to vote for him does not rule out there being bad reasons, too.
If 33% of Americans (100 million) vote for Trump, he will win the popular vote in a landslide, so no. These people are not always-Trumpers. In any case they are not always Trumpers who vote.
I didn’t vote for Trump, nor will I ever, but I strongly approved of the meeting, and generally thought it was a step in the right direction. It was pretty much one of the most courageous things a politician has done in my lifetime. He had to know the rabid warmongers were going to cry bloody murder and he wouldn’t get credit for it, yet he did it to calm hostilities. His Russia policy is way too hawkish from my perspective, but this was good stuff.
The White House is claiming that this being cut from both the official transcript and the official video, is purely accidental (due to ‘technical’ problems). It’s just an amazing coincidence that the deleted bit directly contradicts what’s been a major Trump and Trump-defender talking point for months–that Putin didn’t want Trump to win in 2016.
At Fox News, viewers will be given the redacted version only, of course.
Seriously? He did it to calm hostilities? OMG.
Say, I’ve got this great bridge I bet you’d be interested in buying–a really sweet deal! It’s in a major American city. Contact me for details!
Extremely high within own party approval while, as per the same cite, his “overall approval rating, counting Democrats and Independents, continues to be among the lowest of any modern president at this time in his first term.”
Part of this is that GOP party ID is now as low as its ever been. From 2016 to 2017 about 10% of what was in the GOP moved into the Independent column, and approval of Trump in that group, in that same poll, is only 36%. That’s both strongly and somewhat, and in comparison 46% of Independents strongly disapprove and a total of 58% disapprove. He is underwater among the Independents by 22 points.
What the literal fuck? The reporter asks him The Question, and he says, sure, yeah.
Did anyone jump in and “correct”? Like, OK, you had your opinion, sure, but you didn’t direct “your officials” to take action? Trump is standing right there, he wasn’t listening?
Caramba! La pistola del fumido! And then to go back and try to alter reality by pretending the genuine shit doesn’t exist! Thermonuclear gaslighting!
“Did you do it?”
“Yes, I did. Also, Bolshoi Ballet tours Utah next year…”
33% of registered voters would be what they’re talking about as an estimate, which is more like 67 million, assuming that they all vote. Since about 56% of eligible voters voted in 2016, that makes about 37 million hardcore votes for Trump. He got about 63 million votes.
There is a word for 45’s behavior, and 45 makes Neville Chamberlain look like a piker. It’s called appeasement. When you have an enemy, you might make nice as a ploy to gain an advantage; you don’t just hand over the keys and hope for the best. Or worse, hand over the keys because you don’t know or care what effect it will have.
