I imagine that what’s going on in the Gulf, with the threat to the oil supply and the very real possibility of military action, has been war-gamed a zillion times by the Pentagon (I assume/hope in conjunction with State Dept officials).
I would be curious to know how much faith government officials place in the ‘results’ and ‘solutions’ of war-games. On an intuitive level, if nothing else, I can’t imagine anything involving human behaviour during a high-stakes time as being predictable with any degree of confidence. Even if they have big data and AI that the rest of us still think is ten years away.
I guess my question might as well be - what do high level war games look like? Exercises in game theory? How can their results ever be verified?