I’m not asking if a war will start any time soon or if one is inevitable. It just seems to me, as perhaps an uninformed observer, that the change in the world superpowers standings in the world has changed but the balance of power in the Middle East hasn’t really kept pace. If war were to break out, this time would the Arabs be able to call on Russian support as in the past? I suppose with Dubya in power Israel could ask for quite a bit of American backing, both politically and in arms.
So how would a new Middle East war proceed? Would Israel strike out first with its new right wing government and American support and would the Arabs put up as much of a fight or would Russia once more stand by them?
It’s actually more unlikely Israel will recieve support from the Bush administration - for better or worse. In any case, Israel would just as likely not need political or military help for the time being. Of course, given 10 years and the current military trends in Jordan and Egypt (in particular) the situation may change. Politically, I couldn’t say how either nation would feel about another go at Israel.
Israel would CERTAINLY get NO support for an offensive. Quite frankly it’s just not in their interests. What is there to gain?
I doubt the Russians would support in any measurable way an Arab League style attack on Israel. On the other hand, you might very well see Russia loaing it’s new toys to Her old Arab clients to “aid” them. Of course, the gamble is they’ll perform as expected and raise international sales. Remember, Russia lost almost all of its defense market share to the West and China after the dissolution.
I wouldn’t be all that worried about a major Arab on Israel war anytime soon. The main regional antagonist, Iraq, is still licking it’s wounds so to speak.
On the otehr hand, Turkish control of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers is causing quite a bit of tension. This, in my estimation at least, is more likely to begin an war in the coming years. Turkey is one the strongest nations in the regions and with the completion of Her military modernization programs She will likely be THE strongest Mid-East nation.
We shall see.
As Israel is a nuclear power, there is little chance that any other country in the region would attempt a large-scale land war a la the 1967 and 1973 conflicts, unless or until they felt they could risk a nuclear exchange. On the Israeli side, it seems unlikely that Israel would risk its special relationship with the USA by launching an unprovoked, large-scale attack (conventional or otherwise) on any of its neighbors.
Concerning Russia, the ideological ties to the region of the Soviet years no longer exist, and most countries in the region are much less reliant on Russian weapons than they were in the '60’s and '70’s.
While not necessarily pleasant for some of its residents, conditions in the region appear to be stalemate, and should remain so for at least the next decade, assuming that no Arab country obtains a nuclear capability during that time.
What gave you that idea? There’s no money to be made fighting for Israel. In fact, there’s plenty to lose. Think of the potential losses to Dubya’s oil buddies if there were to be a major conflict in the middle east.