War with North Korea

Yes it is, if you’re impressed by a moronic tyrant who has reduced his country close to starvation, has made it desperately short of even the basic necesseties of life including medical treatment.

More impressive still if you admire concentration camps and the routine murder and torture of his own citizens.

One would have thought that only one of those frightened citizens or a complete lunatic could praise that .

And I wouldn’t be stunned with amazement if I’m correct.

[Moderator Note]

This is GQ. This is a mischaracterization of what was actually said. Don’t put words in another poster’s mouth, especially in such a deliberately inflammatory manner. And insults such as indicating that another poster is a lunatic are also inappropriate for GQ.

No warning issued, but further commentary in this vein, by you or by others, may receive a warning. If you want to take issue with what put down the sabre said, take it to the Pit.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

We can shoot down shells with lasers, once that tech becomes mainstream what will NK have?

I know right, its not like we have had SSBNs chillin off the coast there or anything. I am surprised one of our carries wasn’t always in the area. Don’t we have some stationed in Japan?

The Seventh Fleet is based out of Yokosuka, Japan so yeah, we’ve got considerable naval forces in the area that includes at least one supercarrier.

Heres’ a theory I haven’t seen put forward here yet.

The NK house of cards is about to collapse and there’s no stopping it. Kim is preparing to wager it all on one last hail Mary pass and is ready to go down in a blazing flame of glory if it fails.

What he would hope to gain if he succeeds is entirely up for speculation, the most likely being some varient of the mutually assured destruction of SK.

Interesting. I have a couple of questions.

  1. What would Kimmy do if SK started to calmly evacuate Seoul over a period of say, 2 weeks ?
  2. Over the medium/long term is a more powerful China worth the trade-off to normalise NK ?
  3. What could NK do if the west started psy ops like dvd drops, bbc broadcasts, radio etc ?

My reason for #3 is that i cant see a revolution/coup/overthrow in NK, ever. These people wont be able to comprehend any other way of living. Even in the end days of a war, how can someone who cant comprehend freedom, fight for it ?

  1. Forget about it. Seoul’s metro area has over 24 million people in it. They would not evacuate without substantial cause which in this case would be an absolute belief in an imminent attack by NK. If they have that belief Kim is likely about ready to go anyway. Although such a massive undertaking and the enormous impact it would have on SK’s economy might make Kim do nothing and just laugh at causing so much damage without firing a shot.

  2. China is headed that way anyway and already is the regional power…this would not change that much. The NK government is off the rails crazy and they have nukes. It is in everyone’s interest to see them more stable.

  3. IIRC SK already re-started broadcasts aimed at NK as a sort of psyops. Of course most people in NK are desperately poor, probably illiterate and doubtful they own a TV or radio much less even having electricity to run that.

Brings to mind this photo:

Yep, a mass civilian evacuation from Seoul simply isn’t practicle. Now quite evacuation of high govt officials & their families, senior civil servants, national treasures, etc is a possiblity. Even that would be pretty hard to keep quite.

South Korea has announced a resumption of the loudspeaker campaign; however, that is on hold.

Yes, the vast majority of the population of North Korea is desperately poor. No, they are not probably illiterate; quite the contrary, in fact.

&

When they aren’t eating the books, that’s pretty much all there is to do in North Korea for entertainment. :wink:

(not that this is entirely funny, considering how close to reality that has been a couple of times in NK history :frowning: ).

-XT

I am not suggesting that anyone keeps an evacuation of Seoul quiet. Just that no-one talks to NK about it.

It looks like the only thing stopping NK getting its ass kicked, is the potential loss of life in Seoul .

If there was a large, organised evaccuation, Kimmy would overnight have big, big internal - problems without a shot being fired.

His generals may presume that the rest of the world had had enough and were comming. They may take the initative and bury the fuker. They may not.

He might attack Seoul anyway, but what would the point be ?.

The two weeks of evaccuation would be the slow death on Kims regieme. If the RestOfTheWorld ™ are coming his regieme is toast anyway. He would probably take the Chinese offer and disapear.

It may be an expensive, yet bloodless end to the problem.

If it fails, then plan B is already described in the previous pages here. Bomb and invade but now there is no Seoul factor.

There are almost 50 million people in this country. Seoul is not the only major population center. On top of that, evacuating the people from somewhere means you have to evacuate them to somewhere. What destination do you propose for that number of people? And how do you expect to keep the North Korean government from discovering such a mass movement?

Kim Jong-il’s generals are not about to kill him. If they had any intention of taking over North Korea, they would have done that when Kim Il-sung died. You’re looking at North Korea’s government as though it’s rational. It’s not. Not even close to it. They don’t merely support Kim Jong-il. They worship the man, in a literal sense.

I’d bet the NK political and military leadership are holding some sort of written assurance from the US that if push comes to shove, and they stand down their armies and turn over Dear Leader with little blood shed, they will never have to worry about money or North Korea for the rest of their lives. I would be extremely surprised if there weren’t a few such offers floating around out there… not to say that the recipients take them seriously, but I bet they’re on the table.

Why would you think that’s the case?

Hi Monty.

According to Wiki Seoul has a population of about 10 million.

Wiki says that:

“September 1999 – The size of Hurricane Floyd, its intensity, and its track prompted public officials to launch one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history with an estimated 3 million people fleeing the storm.”

“September 22, 2005 – Texas Department of Transportation says 2.4 million evacuated from Houston, Texas for Hurricane Rita.”

So evacuating 10 million over a two week period, is hardly impossible.

My point is that you dont hide it from NK, you just dont involve them at all and just start doing it. They would freak out !

You seem to not have taken into account that the people you refer to in those evacuations had somewhere to go to other than swimming into the Pacific Ocean or the Sea of Japan. You may also be unaware that North Korea, although poor, is not totally bereft of knowledge of the major population centers of South Korea. Evacuating Seoul alone would only cause the North to redirect its artillery to such places as Incheon, Daegu, Daejeon, Ulsan, and, of course, the major port city of Busan.

Apparently there is a power struggle going on in N.K. for Kims successor as we speak.
He favours his son obviously but one of his hard line supporters , a general who thought he should take up the reins has died very recently in a “car crash”.

If you absaloutly demand it no doubt I can dig up a cite, but I’m pretty sure that its in the media somewhere.

I dunno, because buying out the top leadership would be infinitely preferable to a cataclysmic military conflict?