Naturally, because freaking out North Korea is really a brilliant idea.
Perhaps you misunderstood my query. Allow me to rephrase it: On what evidence do you base that incredible assertion quote below?
Even to begin to evacuate Seoul would be tantamount to a Declaration of War, because you are removing the one primary target the NKs think they have and one can only assume that they would see this as a preparation for launching an attack in NK. Given that they’ve spent 60 years telling their people that we will do just that, it’s not like anyone is going to question their leadership saying “SK is preparing to attack us, so we start NOW”.
Also, it would cost BILLIONS and take months of preparation to accomplish such an evacuation. You have to have long term food and shelter anywhere they go, and you’re talking about roughly one third of the national population that would need to be moved, sheltered and fed. Imagine if we, the USA, needed to move, shelter and feed 100 million people because say, we needed to evacuate the east coast.
Chimera: Your post above is what’s known as a logical explanation of the facts as opposed to the CT-type posts certain others have made.
Yeah, I have a bad habit of being too logical and sensical in some threads.
Perhaps you misunderstand the difference between an assertion and a supposition.
Perhaps you misunderstood the concept of facts. This is General Questions, not Cafe Society. Fiction posts go in the latter.
Oh, come off it, this entire thread is speculation based on a hypothetical scenario (except for your posts, of course, which are no doubt uncanny accurate foretellings of the future).
CR, Monty lives there.
Thanks, FoieGrasIsEvil. And my query still remains: Why does that poster believe what I quoted from him would be unsurprising?
Can you provide a cite on the general dying, a newspaper article or somesuch? Depending on who it was, I may have gotten some points in the Dead Pool game…
Nixon even considered nuking NK: News, Politics, Sports, Mail & Latest Headlines - AOL.com
Fareed Zakaria on a North Korean endgame: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/17/AR2010101702608.html?referrer=emailarticle
How good are the US lasers that can shoot shells outta the sky? I know we have tested them many times with passing results but I doubt we could control the sheer volume
Why does every speculative article on NK have a line that says China is afraid of refugees? Wouldn’t they simply put up roadblocks and shoot anyone who crosses? The border’s only 880 miles long. Compared to the US-Mexico border of 1969 miles, it’s less than half. And we don’t even shoot trepassers. China would have no qualms about that. Why isn’t refugees the least concern?
Most or all of the Chinese–DPRK border is a river, which supports towns and significant economic activity on both sides. So they can’t just declare the border area off-limits. There will always be lots of people on the river and on its banks carrying out legitimate activity. Therefore they don’t want to adopt a “shoot first, ask questions later” policy, or else they’ll end up killing a lot of their own citizens, plus a lot of North Korean citizens who were legitimately in the border area with no intention of illegally crossing. Or were you suggesting that China would first capture the refugees, and then shoot them, in defiance of who knows how many UN treaties on the treatment of refugees? China may be repressive, but I can’t think of any country in modern history that had an official policy of rounding up and murdering legitimate refugees.
You’re probably not aware that these days lots of North Korean refugees and illegal economic migrants cross over into China. Contrary to your claims about China’s psychopathy, the People’s Liberation Army isn’t mowing them down with machine gun fire. Rather, it does much the same thing the US does: it tries to capture and deport them. The refuges and illegal migrants who evade the border patrols end up serving as cheap labour in the black market; some of them spend only enough time in China to make some money to take back home to their families.
And too little to gain. Unless they actually want to go to war with the US for some reason, there’s really no benefit at all to China in an NK victory or even stalemate in this scenario, so why commit any resources or risk any consequences?
They might have a lot to gain by using the possibility as a bargaining chip with the US and Japan.
They might do even better to launch their own invasion of NK and take down the regime before we could. They could then begin negotiations to install a new government that’s more acceptable to all sides, and they’d be negotiating from a pretty good position. If they pulled it off well enough, they could even end up with the US maintaining most of the long-term pacification costs for a China-friendly government.
I just don’t see the likelihood of a Chinese occupation of North Korea. The North Korean government is certainly the worst sort of scum on the planet; however, they are still Koreans. It is a severe mistake to underestimate the nationalism of Koreans, either in the North or South.