I fear that if the mullahs are worried about thier grip on power, this makes them more worrisome, not less. There is nothing, but nothing, more useful to an unscrupulous regime than waving the bloody shirt and screaming about patriotism.
If cooler and reasoning heads shall prevail, all sides will immediately take steps to back down from this wretched situation. Alas.
Strange coincidence that the price of oil typically goes up when threatening statements or action come out of Tehran. Iran’s economy is ruled by oil.
As for Iran declaring war on Israel, I suspect that most of the industrial world would side with Israel. Not saying they’d send troops, but they wouldn’t side with Iran. It would be an incredibly stupid thing for Iran to do.
If a couple dozen Beruit-style car bombs were going to run the US out of Iraq, why hasn’t it happened already? This is the preferred tactic of the insurgents, after all.
The insurgents are trying to attack US forces every day. Usually such attacks aren’t very successful, the really successful attacks are those against Iraqi civilians.
And while our forces aren’t exactly poised for a 3 day sprint for Tehran, the Iranians would have to be insane to provoke open war with the US. Our air superiority would mean that Iranian forces couldn’t move without getting shredded, so any attacks on US forces over the border into Iraq or Afghanistan would be impossible. It would be a repeat of Gulf War I. Our forces start building up inside Iraq, our planes bomb Iranian forces with impunity, and a couple months later the armor crosses the border headed for Tehran.
The Iranians know that we can do tremendous damage to Iranian infrastructure if we want to. A US bombing aimed at destroying the Iranian nuclear program is one thing. A US bombing campaign aimed at destroying Iranian command and control, transportation and oil production is another.
Between Israel’s fear and Iran’s intransigence over their nuclear program and their recent missile display I think the odds of that are, unfortunately, vanishingly small. I seriously doubt Iran is going to back down at this late stage…and I’m unsure Israel CAN back down at this stage. I think with their missile demo Iran has put the sled on the downhill slope…
Guess we’ll see. I seriously doubt Iran will strike first at this point…but I seriously doubt Israel won’t strike unless Iran comes completely clean with their nuclear program to Israel’s satisfaction and also openly scales back their missile program.
-XT
But what does an Israeli bombing accomplish?
It would be one thing if the Israelis could bomb Iran and set their nuclear program back a decade. But the Iranian nuclear progam isn’t concentrated at one reactor like Iraq’s was. It’s dispersed. And Iran is a big country, with lots of educated people, and the mullahs have lots of discretionary income due to the state oil industry.
How does an Israeli bombing make Israel more secure? It can’t destroy the Iranian program, it can’t do much more than annoy the Iranians and maybe delay the Iranian bomb by a year or two. It’s more likely to speed up Iranian nuclear weapons development than slow it down.
I think the Iranian government’s mostly just blustering. But they seem determined to go full speed ahead with their nuke program, they’re swimming in cash from oil sales, and can only chortle as the U.S. looks mired in Iraq and Afghanistan for the foreseeable future (even if, as I devoutly hope, Obama is elected). I think they’ll stay on their current course and hope/pray for the best.
Depends on how good Israel THINKS it’s intelligence is wrt the Iranian nuclear program…and how good they calculate their chances of getting to major pieces of it. Or, Israel could be playing a game with Iran, trying to make them stop or open up their nuclear program due to the threat of Israeli air strikes.
I seriously doubt Israel is going to launch a half baked air strike that will only annoy Iran…I’d say odds are that IF Israel launches a major air strike it’s because they THINK they can get to enough of the program to at a minimum slow it down for a couple of years…and give things in Iran time to calm down (and perhaps have some kind of regime change or some such).
Whether their calculations are accurate about all of that is, of course, something we can’t know.
-XT
Well, I agree that Israel is unlikely to launch a half-baked airstrike. But my belief is that there’s no way for Israel to launch a fully-baked airstrike, it’s just not physically possible. And therefore, no such airstrike will materialize.
Plus, the Israelis would have to coordinate extensively with the US to carry out such an attack. And so it wouldn’t be percieved by the Iranians as an Israel-only attack, but a joint US-Israeli attack, because that’s what it would be in truth. There’s no way that we can allow the Israelis to bomb Iran and expect them to take all the heat for it.
As much as I admire and respect Israel, I am becoming increasingly skeptical of having the fate of my nation decided in Tel Aviv. Perhaps I trust their reason and rationality more than our own current set of “leaders”, but thats a bar an earthworm could clear.
Agreed.
The Israelis are no dummies. Their intelligence agencies are arguably the best in the world. Their military, while not huge, are pound for pound the equal of any military anywhere and better than most. They’ve proved both points numerous times and I do not think they have ever grown lazy when it comes to their own security.
I have no idea how difficult it would be for Israel to achieve their military objectives if they bomb Iran but I believe if they think they know where enough stuff is to bomb they could probably pull it off. Particularly if they get logistics support from the US (in the way of US aerial refueling and AWACS from nearby carriers or perhaps allowing them to land in Afghanistan or Iraq rather than go all the way home in one go).
But Elucidator, the decision isn’t going to be made in Tel Aviv. Israel isn’t going to be able to cross Iraqi airspace without approval from the White House. We can veto any such Israeli bombing–if we wish to.
So don’t worry, the decision whether to bomb Iran is going to be made right here in the good old US of A.
Put yourself in their shoes. If we (and our Euro buddies) fuck up and allow Iran to actually get nukes, it won’t be DC (or your home town) going up in nuclear fire…it would be THEIR cities potentially burning. And while you may not have faith in them…I’d say they have less faith in Iran and it’s intentions towards them.
For that matter, they probably don’t have a hell of a lot of faith in us these days either, come to think of it…
-XT
Funny how politics works though. I imagine the Indians and Pakistanis and probably the Chinese do not want to see Iran with nukes either. Lucky them they let others take care of this for them and, I bet, they will scream how awful the US/Israel is if they attack preemptively.
Not very relevant. Iraq’s military at the beginning of the second Gulf war was a shadow of what it used to be. And meanwhile, Iran has improved its military during the last two decades.
“Dismantling the Iranian army” would be way more difficult than scattering the Iraqi army was.
IM H O :
On the other hand, “nation-building” would probably be much easier in Iran, where people strongly identify with their country. Iranians, in my limited experience are generally fiercely nationalist (this could be a problem for the invasion part of the plan, of course). Plus, I think they’re on the average more educated, more aware of the world, and I believe significantly more “westernised” than the Iraqis. I think they would happily switch to a fully democratic and functional system almost overnight . A process involving armed foreigners running around might be a problem, though.
Hell, we are in their shoes, our committment is so total, they are our shoes! Shit, we even paid for them!
For one thing, its rather bald bullying, isn’t it? “You can’t have nukes, because you don’t love us.” Pakistan can have them, Pakistan can conduct a nuclear Amway sale and we won’t retaliate beyond a stern “tut-tut”. Since when is a sovereign nation not permitted to make its own decisions as to what it requires for its own defense? Has anyone suggested that Israel may not have nukes, due to its long standing pacific history and its committment to non-aggression?
As far as puttng oneself in another’s shoes, how about putting yourself in Iran’s moccasins for a mile-long walk? Can you definitively tell me how much of their belligerance is aggressive, and how much motivated by fear and vulnerability?
They know, like pretty much everybody knows, that Israel likely has the nuke. We rattle sabers in their ears almost every other day, and airstrikes against them are openly discussed as though it were a sane and reasonable option.
I don’t know about you, but that would make me a mite edgy. It might lead me to think that I need every possible form of military defense, and cannot count on the soothing words of potential adversaries, especially when those soothing words are accompanied by open threats of attack.
The US/Coalition pretty cleanly annihilated the Iraqis in the first Gulf War as well when Iraq, at least on paper, had one of the larger standing militaries in the world.
US air power would clear the skies of Iranian aircraft easily. Particularly if F22 Raptors were deployed. Americans have superior weapons, superior tactics, superior generals that could be used in largely open terrain which plays to US strengths in maneuver warfare.
Iranians may well prove more difficult than the Iraqis but in a shootout there is little doubt who’d prevail. The Iranian’s best bet would be to hole-up in their cities and make it a grueling door-to-door mess.
Of course a sovereign nation can make decisions for its own defense. Iran wants nukes, that is their decision. The US and Israel calculate that for their own defense they cannot tolerate Iran having nukes. And that’s the rub isn’t it?
If I were Iran I absolutely would be falling over myself to get nukes ASAP. I completely understand their desire to do so.
I also completely understand Israels horror at the thought of them getting nukes.
Immovable rock meet unstoppable force. The results won’t be pretty.
Well, elucidator, I happen to agree with you. With China, India, Pakistan, Russia, France, the US, the UK and Israel holding nuclear bombs, it seems pretty clear why Iran might think a couple nukes would be handy.
So it would be nice if we could wave a magic wand and prevent the Iranians from building a nuclear bomb. Unfortunately, the only way we can really prevent this is through open war.
Open war with Iran would be a disaster. Therefore, even though we wish it were otherwise, we’re going to have to face the future of a nuclear armed Iran. Maybe we’ll be able to talk or sanction them out of it. It ain’t likely, but dropping a couple bombs on a couple of Iranian reactors and factories isn’t going to work either.
My hunch is that this saber-rattling is a negotiating tactic, since the sane people in Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran know all the above. But stupid people have been known to make stupid decisions from time to time.
They can’t have them because they signed the NPT…and received goodies for doing so. Also, the whole outlaw regime thingy comes into play.
Seriously…do you REALLY want Iran to have nukes? Do you not feel the region is unstable enough without pumping in pure hydrogen?
Pakistan has them because they handed the world a fait accompli. They weren’t allowed to have them…they did it in secret.
As far as your second point, since when DON’T nations make such decisions? Besides which, there is that whole NPT thingy again.
Um…Israel doesn’t claim to have any nukes. If they DO have them, they’d be sort of in the same boat as Pakistan and North Korea…i.e., once they have them there ain’t a whole lot you can do about it but accept it. Something we are trying to avoid with Iran (and other nations who don’t currently have the evil things).
They bring in on themselves I’m afraid…least IMHO. If they would straighten up and fly right there would be no issues…unlike Israel who can basically do nothing about the fact that they are a Jewish state in a region that is inherently hostile toward them and has been since their inception. Iran though? Naw…if they opened up their nuclear program to international inspection and forswore their support for external terrorist agencies, if they played well with others in the region and in the world they would be warmly embraced by The World™…hell, the Euro’s would wet themselves with happiness if this unlikely event ever occurred. And the US would be pretty happy too, truth be known.
The only reason they COULD or WOULD be attacked 'luci is because their nuclear program is threatening, their actions are threatening…both states they have manufactured themselves. YMMV of course.
Couple of things here. First off, they don’t KNOW that Israel has nukes…neither do you, or I, or anyone else (most likely) on this board. They speculate that Israel MIGHT have a nuke or two up it’s sleeve. Sort of like speculation that Saddam MIGHT have WMD hidden somewhere under the blankets.
Secondly, why would Israel having a nuke make them nervous? Presumably if Israel DOES have a nuke they have had it for quite a while…yet, no nucleah fiah hath blossomed in Tehran, ehe? Nor was any nukes used by Israel even when being attacked directly by several of it’s friendly and playful neighbors in the past…which would lead one to the conclusion that either they don’t have nukes or only the most dire circumstance would lead to their use.
It makes me more edgy when what I consider an unstable regime is evasive about their nuclear program, despite repeated negotiation with multiple nations throughout the world, who makes periodic threatening statements (some of which make speeches by GW seem mild), and then decides to give a rocket demo to prove that, yeah, if they get nukes, they will in fact be able to deliver them to…yep…Israel’s door step.
THAT makes me a bit nervous, yes indeed.
-XT
You may have just written mankind’s epitaph.