Let’s look at this from the point of view of the “Iranian leadership” hive-mind.
The Americans will soon build an anti-missile system in Europe to preclude our use of missile. We are in a “use them or lose them” situation.
The Western economy is very weak. Perhaps on the edge of a depression. Our little push could weaken the West out of all proportion of our sacrifice.
If we attack Israel, the US will attack us. The result will be a grass-roots revulsion with the US and perhaps the toppling of pro-US governments throughout the region.
The US military is fully engaged. As the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq wind down, they will have more power to direct at us. Now is the time.
The US is more diplomatically isolated than at any other recent time.
Our own internal popularity is low. A war would let us bang the drum of wartime patriotism.
So if we launch an attack against Israel, we will set the region aflame and we can hope the reordering afterward would be more in our favor than the current situation. Further, if we delay, the correlation of forces moves against us.
I think these leaders realize the drawbacks to such an attack. For one, I think Iran is looking to be a regional hegemon. Given the situation in Iraq, this seems like a likely outcome of continuing down the path we are currently on. A war with Israel would disrupt these plans.
Two, Iran and Israel have always been something of allies. Both distrust the Sunnis which harass Israel. When the Shah was in power he always loudly dissed Israel while working behind the scenes with the Israeli leadership. As we saw with the arms-for-hostages situation in the 1980s, this type of backroom dealing didn’t end with the toppling of the Shah.
Three, Iranian leaders can’t fail to notice that even though the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t turn out all that well for the U.S., it turned out even worse for Saddam Hussein and Mullah Omar and their ilk. If our two nations go to war, it’s likely that those running Iran will be dead or imprisoned as a result. Sure, the U.S. may suffer some severe consequences, too, but it’s not like Bush will be executed as a result.
Four, the Iranian economy would be completely devastated by any war. Iran is something of a democracy and its leaders need to worry to a certain extent about making sure the populace isn’t pissed off.
But the US is making noises about avoiding civilian casualties. If we presume an US/Israeli strike would be non-nuclear, then the number of deaths would be acceptable. The last war we had with Iraq and with America (Preying Mantis) both cemented the position of the political elites.
They made the same noises about civilian casualties in Iraq… How’s that working out?
Personally, I believe for all its Bluster Iran is not about to start any war. Not in their nature. Sure they’ll back others and fight by proxy and make noises but that’s it because in the end any war could hurt those on top and they know it.
If we make it look like the Israelis attacked first? Besides who really cares who attacks first?
Another pro-war point; if the war starts now, the new president (whoever he is) will work to end in February '09 or so. Small war, with great benefits.
(I am talking myself into this. It is scary as heck.)
Just thought that was funny (regarding news that Iran photoshopped an extra missile into their pics of their missile tests).
Don’t forget that while US troops are engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq they are already there on Iran’s doorstep. In the face of an attack from Iran they’d just spin on their heels and have at Iran.
Further, they have to know if it comes to a military showdown the US would stomp them. Iran and Iraq fought each other to a standstill for years. The US dismantled the Iraqi army with ease and in record time.
I also disagree the world would fall behind Iran and condemn the US if Iran attacked. It is a pretty straightforward notion that defending oneself from and attack is an intrinsic right. If anything I think support for the US would increase from its miserable levels today.
Finally, as for killing the American economy, I doubt such a war would do that.
I think all the talk coming from Tehran is mostly hot air. The Iranian economy is a shambles, and the mullahs know how hated they are. Iran has a large class of university-educated people, who have no use for the rule of the mullahs.
I think the US and Europe ought to engage the rational people in iran, and hasten the fall of the mullahs.
Actually you are making a case for Iran to attack. If those at the top think they are in real danger of being toppled is when they are most dangerous and likely to lash out. Even if the government attacked against the wishes of the people the people will still close ranks to defend themselves no matter how much they may deserve an ass kicking.
Not a chance in hell they could do that. You don’t take an occupation force (which is essentially what the US forces in Iraq currently are) and turn it into an invasion force by simply turning them to the east and saying ‘Have at em boys!’. You’d need to stage heavy equipment and logistics supplies needed for such an invasion, and then bring in all the additional personnel and such…it would take months. And frankly the cupboard is bare.
So, since invasion is pretty much out that leaves the Navy and the Airforce…well, the Navy as the Air Forces capabilities would either have to fly in from long distance or we’d need to re-stage them out of some friendly nation in the region. Yikes.
How seriously do the Iranians take this though? Even if it’s technically feasible ( :dubious: ), it’s a matter of how THEY view it. Do they consider it pure propaganda or a serious system?
Perhaps…but again, how do the Iranians view our current weak economy? WE might think things look pretty bad, but from the Iranians perspective it may not look all that bad…or it may look worse than it really is. It’s often hard to judge how the other guy is making such calculations.
Well…I think if Iran attacked Israel they would need to worry first about what Israel’s response would be. Certainly the US would get involved at that point, but the real hammers would initially come flying back at them from Israel. And if Iran directly attacked Israel I doubt there would be a grass roots revulsion, etc etc, except maybe from some of our Euro buddies…and probably NOT from our Euro buddies governments. Now, if Israel attacks Iran and the US jumps on, well, that’s a different kettle of loaves and fishes…
The US isn’t going to be invading Iran…period. So, that leaves air and missile strikes. Which brings us to the Navy and Air Force, which AREN’T that heavily engaged. The Navy could pound Iran’s infrastructure into sand alone without to much trouble…very hard to counter cruise missiles after all, especially if Israel has already rung their bell with retaliatory air strikes first.
Actually I think it was worse a year or so ago. Also, we are talking about Iran attacking Israel…I doubt that the US responding would further alienate the US from our traditional allies (though their populations may freak a bit in the short term). After all, an aggressive Iran attacking Israel is going to set off alarm bells with the GOVERNMENTS in Europe, even if the population knee jerks about this. And I doubt many of the nations in the ME would look favorably on an Iranian strike against Israel either.
Again, if we are talking about Israel striking Iran first and the US jumping in with both feet…well, then all bets are off and the devil is truly in the game. Gods know what the fuck may happen then.
Certainly the Iranians may make this calculation…but they have got to know that if they attacked Israel that they would get pounded, even if the US didn’t join in the fun (which we almost certainly would if they actually hurt Israel badly). Also, though I don’t know what the mood of the man on the street in Iran is these days, I’m a bit skeptical that starting a war with Israel would have the effect you are implying here. Thing is…the folks in charge in Iran may not know either and be making the same assumptions/calculations you are. So, it’s definitely a wild care.
I think that calculation is wrong…but I also concede that the Iranian leadership may make the exact same one. Personally I think all that attacking Israel would do is destroy a lot of Iran’s infrastructure and military capability and perhaps set them up for a counter-revolution if they become weak enough. I don’t think it would exactly set the region on fire if they attacked Israel and Israel lashed back.
Perhaps their game is more to goad Israel into striking first. Then all of Paul’s analysis still applies but with them being able to play the part of the aggressee in a counter-attack that pulls America into the mess.
It is a hard place for Israel to sit in. They have to be thinking just what Paul is thinking, about what Iran is thinking. Iran now has the means to deliver a nuclear warhead to Israeli population centers and is only a short development away from being able to produce one. Iran has poelemic reasons to attack Israel, and distorted beliefs of RealPolitik that may motivate them as well. Does Israel act pre-emptively - and risk the scenario to unfold with them in the role of aggressor? Or do they risk allowing a possible first strike, possibly a nuclear one, by Iran?
How much faith should they have in dialogue and international pressure with such stakes?
The international community needs to rapidly raise the level of pressure on Iran while simultaneously positively engaging with carrots at the highest levels with face-saving ways of backing down. Force is not off the table but any option that includes force does not end well. I hope that those options are avoidable. I am not sure they are. One or the another actor may feel they need to act.
The US has 150,000+ troops in Iraq and another 18,000+ in Afghanistan, both on Iran’s doorstep.
No they do not just spin and run into Iraq on a moment’s notice but they ARE there as opposed to being based in the US. That is a significant force not to be ignored. The US is excellent at logistics and we’d leave Iraq to itself and bunker up in bases as they gathered themselves to assault Iran. We do not need friends to let us base ourselves since we’d base right from where we are now.
To imply the military there are just a glorified police force incapable of front line combat is wrong. Iran would be foolish in the extreme to think they could be safely ignored.
Of course US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq also means the Iranians can attack them. The US Army is no longer out of reach. Plus any Iranian attack will be accompanied by lots of trouble-by-proxy in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and all through the region. This will pin down US forces.
A further ghastly scenario not yet shuddered over: that someone who sees an advantage to such a conflict between Shia Iran and Jewish Israel might avail themselves of the opportunity to provoke such a conflict.
The force structure is wrong for an invasion. Much of the heavy equipment is either no longer in Iraq or it’s degraded to the point that it would be useless in a forced entry invasion. We no longer have all the artillery assets in theater, among myriad other things. All that stuff would have to be brought back.
Also, our current troops in Iraq have training and experience fighting insurgency type combat…they would need training for an invasion type assault.
I’m not implying it I’m saying it…the troops in Iraq are not capable currently of invading Iran or anywhere else. Our force structure in Iran (and Afghanistan) is geared to the combat conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan…not to invading other nations. The force we used TO invade Iraq is no longer IN Iraq, as most of the heavy equipment is no longer there. What is there is geared toward the type of combat conditions in country…and much of that is pretty worn out.
We aren’t going to invade Iran with the force we have in Iraq…not happening. That doesn’t mean that Iran has nothing to fear from the US…were I them I’d fear men in gray ships with cruise missiles and strike air craft.
Iran might consider the American army to be a quick and easy target. A half-dozen Beirut-style car bombs might (from the Iranian POV) force the American out.
Actually, the Mullahs are losing their grip. French oil giant TOTAL pulled out of a deal to develop the Iranian natural gas fields. Without natural gas exports, the Iranian regime is broke-and the Chinese are not supplying credit! As for provoking a war, the massive and immediate retaliation from Israel, would probably wreck the Iranian economy for years to come.
The mullahs are NOT so foolish as to plan their own destruction!
I agree Paul…that’s why I listed US occupied Iraq on the list. Our force there could very well be vulnerable to such attacks…well, for a while, until Iran got pounded. Even after that though we’d be vulnerable to Iranians coming across the border and heating up the already hot insurgency fighting in Iraq…though I’m unsure how the Iraqi’s might react to yet another group of foreign fighters blowing the shit out of their country. They don’t seem all that keen on them these days…
