During my college years–I started in 2000–I believed a lot of things about the energy industry. Generally speaking, my beliefs could be summarized as fossil fuels=bad, renewable energy sources=good. When I look back from the vantage point of 13 years, it seems as if everything I once believed has turned out to be false.
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Incorrect belief #1: Hydrogen cars will soon be here.** By 2000, Democratic legislators in California and the Northeast boldly took the initiative on this one. They passed laws stating that by 2003, 10% of all cars sold in those states must be zero-emissions, and everyone understood this to mean hydrogen fuel cells. The target date has come and gone and there are no hydrogen fuel cell cars on the road, other than expensive prototypes. Lawsuits by car companies and the Bush Administration played a role, but the main problem was that the technology which these politicians were trying to will into existence just didn’t arrive. Certain sources keep saying that hydrogen will get here, but it never actually does.
Incorrect belief #2: Biofuels will be awesome. Every time a major magazine had a series about the energy sources of the future there was a big article about the coming biofuel revolution, usually coming right after the article about the coming hydrogen car revolution. On this issue, at least, it’s true that biofuel usage has gone up, chiefly because of government subsidies and requirements. However, almost everyone seems to agree with some fellow named Cecil Adams when he wrote, “The full story seems to be that ethanol subsidies are a complete waste.” Corn ethanol is not the only biofuel misfire. Only the true policy wonks know about the cellulose ethanol mandate. The law requires production of ethanol from cellulosic feedstock plants. The amount are small at present but scheduled to soar in coming years. The problem is basically the same as for hydrogen cars: the technology doesn’t exist. Legislators are once again butting up against inconvenient scientific facts.
Incorrect belief #3: Solar and wind will take over electric production. A July 2002 cover story in Mother Jones assured me that wind power was ready to make its big move and become a major part of electricity production, but it was merely reflecting conventional wisdom at that point. Everyone was sure that the wind and its sibling, the Sun, would soon be supplying a big chunk of our electricity. Years later, wind and solar aren’t doing very well. The fact that Mother Jones and co. payed little attention to was that these sources are only worth building when they’re heavily subsidized or required by law. When the economic good times are rolling, government are willing to give such subsidies and requirements, but when the economy goes south they’re among the first things on the chopping block. Many European nations have cut back on subsidies. So have many American states. Without the subsidies, the wind and solar industries have little hope of growing.
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Incorrect belief #4: Peak Oil will force us to switch from oil to other energy sources.** I’ve read countless books, articles, blogs, and message board posts explaining how we’re absolutely sure that Peak Oil is real and either soon will be here or already is. Oil production was going to go down, down, down and there was nothing that anyone could do about it. Today oil production in the USA is higher than it was when most of that stuff was written. Even liberal magazines are now explaining why we’ll never run out of oil.
Incorrect belief #5: We must move away from fossil fuels because of global warming. Carbon emissions in the USA have been trending upwards since forever. But in the past 5 years suddenly the trend has turned downward. A triumph of solar, wind, hydroelectric, biofuels, hydrogen cars, carbon capture & storage, bicycling, mass transit, or anything else promoted by environmentalists? No. It’s a triumph of the one thing environmentalists hate most at the moment: natural gas from hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”).
