Was it a mistake for Trump to run?

Just so we’re on the same wavelength here. I’m a hard-core capital-P Progressive. I’m not here explaining what I think *ought *to happen. I’m here explaining just what I think *will *happen. My predictions demonstrate how reality-free I think the Rs have become.

As to this:

IMO that’s flat wrong.

IMO the 27% are proud of themselves. It’s deplorable, but it’s true.

The other 23ish percent of America who are R voters will not think as you say. Some will think: “Damn - these alt-right 27% guys are embarrassingly public about saying a lot of what I think (or say) in private.” Others will think: “I liked it better when our clueless peon pawns weren’t so noisy; now they’re rousing the opposition. Let’s have our henchmen quiet them down while still encouraging them to vote for our side. Deplorables indeed; some even haven’t bathed!”

Those roughly 50% of the national electorate are going to keep voting Republican once Trump himself is not the figurehead. A sizeable fraction of them live in monocultures where they don’t know a single solitary Democrat and where Republicans win elections by 80/20. And frankly a sizeable fraction of Democrats live in a similar, though usually less strident, monocultures. That’s a separate issue, but it certainly is a structural barrier to Progress as a nation.
If indeed Clinton comes up with 60 or more percent of the popular vote (which I fervently hope she does) it will be because 10% of the electorate (or ~20% of the R electorate) turns their back on Trump. I’m not predicting this *will *happen. But *if *it does, it *is *evidence that a meaningful chunk of Rs are not totally irredeemable human beings. But it would be very, very foolish for the Ds to consider those Rs who voted for Clinton (or perhaps abstained en masse on the Presidential race while voting a straight R ticket otherwise) to be anything but a one-time event. That will not translate into additional D support in 2018 or 2020.
As to

I agree completely. They’re not victims except in the *very *narrow sense that a smarter party primary process might have selected somebody more electable for them to rally around. Instead they got handed Trump to rally around and many are going to be pissed on Nov 9th when their Home team doesn’t win.

All I’m saying is they’ll continue to wrap themselves in the R banner no matter how shit-stained it becomes. Not because they’re all irredeemably utterly in agreement with the worst disciple of David Duke or Joe Arpaio that you can imagine. Some certainly are. Some are not.

They’ll keep rallying around the R banner simply because they prefer Us over Them and have totally imbibed a fixed view of who constitutes their Us (the R party: warts, crazies, racists, and all) and everybody else is a Them.
You seem to be blinded by your anger and moral outrage; you can’t think of how they think. Defeating an enemy first requires you to think like they do. Only then can you successfully predict what they’ll do. Understanding them doesn’t mean giving their ideas credence. It means comprehending them so as to defeat them efficiently and effectively.

Even though she is his daughter, she is still only a woman, so what does she know?

Trump is constitutionally unable to stifle himself or control his impulses to attack back or defend himself. It doesn’t matter what anyone says, he just can’t do it.

I am beginning to think that, yes, it was a mistake for him to run. He is threatening his entire brand, which is premised on the notion that he’s a smart ‘bidness’ guy.

That mask just got ripped off today, and I think it’s just the beginning.

From August 2016

Trump is a billion dollar loser, who could not make money off casinos. Sad!

There house; there castle. :smiley:

It was hardly a mistake. Sure, it might hurt his businesses, but they seem to have been largely a matter of smoke and mirrors anyway. He’s 70 years old and he obliterated conventional political thinking in the GOP primaries. Even if he loses the general election (fingers crossed), there are lessons here that political operatives will spend the next 20 years trying to learn.

An excellent summation.

Less strident? One only has to look at the Dope to see how wrong that statement is.

You can also make the same point about monocultures WRT Conservative and Labour in the UK.

I don’t actually care who you vote for. It’s not germane to the discussion.

This remark is addressed not just to you, LSLGuy, but to all the people who have assured me of their credentials in our discussions. People keep doing it. I don’t care. Your self-applied labels don’t affect how I see an argument.

In order to support this argument, you would have to supply evidence that the solid majority of Republicans are secretly opposed to Donald Trump and his fans and are just providing lip service in the name of “party unity”.

Best of luck with that.

Yeah, I know that Republicans are going keep on being Republican. I’ve never suggested otherwise.

But I don’t care because:

  1. Donald is not going to stop being the Republican figurehead on November 9th.

He’s going to lose - but he’s still going to be calling in to talk shows, promoting his idea that the Republicans have been cheated, undermining Hillary’s Presidency, sowing dissent and encouraging revolt.

The thing is - Donald *has *to keep going. He’s a con man and his con is falling apart. His foundation is being shut down. He’s facing catastrophic bankruptcy and charges of tax evasion. He’s doomed unless he can keep the illusion going that he’s a powerful and wealthy man. If he backs down after November 8th, he’ll be showing weakness, which Donald never does, and he’ll leave himself vulnerable to the IRS and NY Attorney and all of his creditor (including, probably, the Russian Mob.)

Which means more rallies and speeches, tweets and call-ins, to keep his fans excited, because he has no other way to protect his, you should pardon the phrase, empire, except to keep his fan club angry and excited.

The #NeverTrump crowd won’t be able to take the reins back for the same reason that they weren’t able to take the reins in the first place: They’re scared of losing Trump’s fans’ votes. They’re afraid of primary challenges from Trump loyalists. They fundamentally agree with the things Trump is saying even if they don’t like his style.

The #NeverTrump people - such as there are of them - are not going to oppose Trump, because doing so would be seen by Trump Fans as cooperating with the Demon Queen.

Plus, Sean Hannity and Bill O’Reilly aren’t going to kick Trump off their shows because he drives ratings.

I know we’re trying to predict the future here - but I just don’t see any reason to think that Trump will stop being a figurehead on November 9th. Certainly, LSLGuy, you haven’t provided any reason for me to reconsider.

Oh right -

  1. I don’t care that Republicans will go on being Republicans after the 9th because the Republican party as a whole is old and aging out and they’re being replaced by voters who are more progressive.

The bottom line is, there are fewer Republicans every year and their ability to grow their party is non-existent. They have a built in expiration date.

In another fifty years, the Democrats will also age out, having become the majority conservative party. It’s slower than I like. I probably won’t live to see it. But time marches on.

I am outraged, and I don’t care who knows it, but you haven’t given me any reason to accept your take on the situation over my own.

I see that my response doesn’t really address the OP, so I’ll let it go.

As to the OP - the Trump Foundation has been running for 25 years and no one ever bothered to examine the paperwork before. So I think that’s a pretty conclusive answer.

I know that for historical purposes this is like seeing Al Capone’s fall due to shady taxes and for audits that were not made.

I think her initial assessment was that he would never get this far. (She certainly wouldn’t have been alone in that!) So the old man spends some money* on an ego trip that lasts for a few months – what’s the harm in that? By the time it became apparent he had a real shot at it, it was too late to talk him down.

  • She knows him, so she knew if he spent some money, it wouldn’t be much. He’d always figure out a way to get other people to finance his election.

I now see that I was rebutting something different from what you meant. Sorry.

We’re in agreement that Trump and Trumpism are abject disasters for the country. And that whether they’re rabble-roused by him or another figurehead, the deplorables have found their voices and it’ll be the work of a decade or more to crowd them out of the public square. Again.

I’d hope the mainstream Rs, reprehensible though many of their instincts are, would summon the human decency and basic Americanism to help put the genie back in the bottle. AIUI you’d prefer to hope the same, but don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance of that actually happening.

We share a goal. And outrage. That’s enough for me. All the best.

I don’t agree that the “deporables” will stick around as long as you think. This is them getting desperate. They’re being activated in a last ditch attempt.

Yeah, Trump will stay around, and he will have followers. But they are going to decrease in power very quickly. Or so I predict.

If his tax avoidance scandal was ripping off the mask, I think this scandal might be ripping off his entire head. What next?

Yes, I think that in tandem these scandals will due permanent damage to his brand and threaten his empire, which post 1995 has been built largely on being an on-air asshole who’s good at business. Now the public knows that he’s an open-mic creep who fucking sucks at business. Seriously speaking, Donald Trump’s post real estate career as a showman and celebrity isn’t that much more impressive than, say, the Kardashians or Tila Tequila.

I don’t think this is the last of scandal either. The child rape case is now getting a fresh start, and is moving forward. And in light of the revelations yesterday, it’s a LOT more credible. If there’s one thing that can end a career, it’s rape – especially child rape.

I’m just dying to see Mike Pence defend Trump on his latest peccadillo. What a pointy little pin head. Christ! How many times can you trip over your own dick? Incredibly, I bet Trump still bags 43 million votes. Wanna know why? Check this out.

I’ll bet Trump’s kids are thinking it was a mistake to run right about now

FWIW, I’d be a natural Republican voter, with a moderately conservative (fiscal and defense) and Midwestern outlook and a (generally) conservative occupation. But I feel that the Republican party has left me for the FAR right and social conservatives years ago.

Further, they seem more unhinged from reality with every election cycle. That used to be the job of Democrats!

Lately, whenever I flirt with the idea of “returning to my political roots”, the Republican party pulls another bone-headed move. (Hey, I probably could’ve voted for Kasich, I did in the primary). ESPECIALLY THIS YEAR, the Republican party absolutely deserves to be **PUNISHED **in the voting booths for subjecting us (America, maybe the world) to the possibility of this “short-fingered vulgarian” occupying the White House.

Running is the smartest thing they could do right now. If I was one of Trump’s kids my bags would have been packed before Dad finished taping his apology. I hear Easter Island’s nice.