Personally, I don’t think Trump is serious about running for President.
Agreed. I predict (mystically) he’ll participate in Iowa and New Hampshire, do badly, and drop out. And he’ll do it very petulantly. He’ll blame everyone but himself.
Only when i am certain of winning will I reveal my prediction.
I’m going to wait for adaher’s prediction so I’ll have a good idea which direction to go…
Not until he’s gotten thumped in a few primaries, I reckon, so I guess we’ll get to enjoy his unique talents until at least spring '16.
I don’t think he will stay in after his loss becomes obvious and inevitable to him.
But I don’t think that will happen before South Carolina, and probably not for a few states after that.
I’m going with March 16, 2016.
March 10, 2016.
That’a about a week after Super Tuesday, and a couple days after the 2nd group of primaries after ST.
OK, I’ll go with March 6, 2016.
Sorry, I didn’t realize that the thread had been created already. I meant this to be the first post.
I don’t know about you, but I don’t believe Trump is serious about being president. Like many others, I think he’s a troll who’s just stirring things up to draw attention to himself.
So I’ve created this poll (and pool) so that everyone can go on the record with the date they think he will drop out. The winners will be those who pick the first date after which he officially drops out. That is, if he drops out on Jan. 5, all those who picked Jan. 15 win. (I don’t know what we’ll do if there is any ambiguity about when he “officially” drops out.)
I have included all currently scheduled primary and caucus dates, as well as every day of the two national conventions in July 2016. (I’d be surprised if he drops out during the Democratic con-vention, but I’ve included it for the sake of parity.) You can also say that you expect him to go all the way to election day and either win or lose.
Please note that this is an open poll: your user name will appear with your vote, so that we can properly laud those prescient few who pick the correct date. (The praise of your fellow Dopers will be the only prize that winners will receive.)
In light of post#9, I’m changing that to March 13.
Trump wins. I voted like that just for the hell of it. And one can dream. All those heads 'splodin… On both sides of the aisle.
I picked late April. Trump’s got enough money and name recognition that losses in IA and NH shouldn’t deter him. He’ll keep going until he loses a few big states.
If they keep trying to force him out with fake outrage he will be in to the bitter end.
I voted March 5, but in reality, can’t commit to a firm date. It’ll be by or in spring, I’m sure. There’s just no way he can keep the momentum going for very long. Something or someone burning that brightly just burns out that much faster.
Adjusted one day to March 5, 2016.
^^^^^ This x 1000.
I truly believe he is so delusional that he can’t even conceive the idea that he will lose. And the fact he keeps refusing to rule out a 3rd party/Independent run makes me believe he will be in it until he comes in a miserable 3rd place on Election Day 2016. And even then I seriously doubt he will shut up and go away.
Well, let’s remember that before now it was assumed that he would only talk about running and never actually do it because he’d have to release tax returns.
The thing is, we don’t really know what makes that man tick.
He’ll probably drop out after March 8th when he hasn’t won a single primary, so I voted March 13th based on what I think the rules are. However depending on what happens among the other 300 GOP candidates he may not actually drop out at all.
I messed up my first attempt at a poll. Somehow this isn’t an open poll as I wanted. I’ve asked the mods if they can close it so I can restart it correctly.
Don’t know what you mean. It is a public poll.